MLB Pick: Charlie Blackmon to Record 2+ Total Bases (+170) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Our favorite sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action. and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Blue Jays vs. Royals, Tigers vs. Astros and Rockies vs. Dodgers
For reasons that I will explain, you should invest in player props for all three games.
Picks Summary
- Matt Chapman to Record 2+ Total Bases (+120)
- Eric Haase to Record a Hit (-135)
- Charlie Blackmon to Record 2+ Total Bases (+170)
- C.J. Cron to Record 2+ Total Bases (+150)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Kansas City’s Starter
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic tonight, who was notoriously vulnerable last year, as evident in his 5.58 ERA. But this level of vulnerability is nothing new – Bubic has always been a poor pitcher in his career. This vulnerability derives from the various flaws in his pitching. One flaw is that he offers minimal variety in his repertoire, as he throws a fastball just over 50% of the time and has only two other pitches.
Given this lack of variety, it is easy for opponents to figure him out. Consequently, last year, he yielded an 8.54 ERA when working through a lineup a third time in a given game.
Another flaw in Bubic’s game is in the pitches themselves. Heat maps illustrate his tendency to leave his pitches in the middle parts of the plate, where batters are likelier to make efficacious contact. Bubic’s pitches are not good enough to make up for their poor location.
His fastball, for example, suffers low levels of spin and velocity, meaning batters don’t have difficulty keeping up with it or tracking its movement.
Bonus Consideration
Besides the fact that Bubic is generally an awful pitcher, it is worth noting that he is at his worst at this time of year. In March and April, his career ERA is 10.50 in 12 innings pitched and opponents are batting an absurd .320 and slugging .580 against him in these months.
This fact gives us all the more reason to look for hitters from the other team to invest in.
Matt Chapman’s Outlook
My favorite Blue Jays hitter to invest in is Matt Chapman. With his .533 BA and .800 slugging rate, Toronto’s third baseman is sizzling.
He has at least two hits in every game but one, and he has two doubles in two different games.
Betting Approach
Given the above information, the best way to approach this game is with a total bases prop bet. For the “over” on the total bases to hit, the player has to record a higher number of total bases than the posted over/under by getting hits.
A double is two bases. A triple is three bases, and so on.
MLB Pick: Matt Chapman to Record 2+ Total Bases (+120) at Bovada
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
The “To Record a Hit” Prop
This prop bet is simple enough: you invest in a player who you think will get at least one hit.
But, in view of our goal to profit long-term, extreme caution must be exercised here. A lot of the posted players are so chalky that it can be hard to achieve long-term profit because it doesn’t take many times for something to go wrong when investing in very chalky players that you’ll lose money over time.
The best approach is to find the underrated, less expensive players, who are flying under the radar yet worth investing in for good reasons.
Eric Haase’s Outlook
Such a player is Detroit’s catcher Eric Haase. He is worth investing in today because he has a good track record against Houston’s starter, Framber Valdez – Haase is 3-for-7 lifetime against him.
We can count on him to build off his last game and get a hit.
MLB Pick: Eric Haase to Record a Hit (-135) at Bovada
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Colorado’s Hitting Duo
I really like what Rockies’ designated hitter Charlie Blackmon and teammate first baseman C.J. Cron are doing. Both have started the season off strongly:
- Blackmon is hitting .350 and slugging .600
- Cron is hitting .368 and slugging .947
Impressively, they have achieved these stats outside the hitters-friendly confines of their home ballpark.
Blackmon and Cron vs. Urias
Both batters are likely to continue thriving given who is starting for the Dodgers, Julio Urias.
Lifetime, Blackmon is batting .308 and slugging .462 against him, while Cron is hitting .292 and slugging .625 with Urias on the mound.
Betting Approach
I recommend taking your normal unit and splitting it on both batters, Blackmon and Cron, to record 2+ bases. You can invest a full unit in each batter to record 2+ bases if you want, but just on principle I just like to avoid incurring too much financial exposure in a single game.
For your final MLB pick, expect both players to get at least two hits or at least a double.
If you’re betting from the Centennial State, check out our Colorado betting guide to find the best sportsbook options for you!
MLB Pick: Charlie Blackmon to Record 2+ Total Bases (+170) at Bovada
MLB Pick: C.J. Cron to Record 2+ Total Bases (+150) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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