Last year, Georgia looked like the best team in college football for most of the season. They bookended their run with strong wins against Clemson and Alabama, and they finally got the monkey that is the Crimson Tide off their back. They made it to the College Football Playoff, and they got to hoist the trophy.
Now, we have to focus on the future. Kirby Smart retains some key players, but a ton of talent is heading for the NFL. They tried to work the transfer portal, but they didn’t manage to bring in any of the key players this offseason. Still, they do a great job of developing talent and have another elite recruiting class.
The question after a team wins is always whether they can win again. Only two active coaches have multiple national championships as the head coach, and Kirby could become the third.
According to NCAAF futures odds, Georgia is not the favorite to win the title next year. Still, they have +375 value. So, can they repeat as national champions next year?
The Last Team to Repeat
Repeating as national champions is incredibly challenging. To put it in perspective, the last team to do so was Alabama in 2011-2012. That was with A.J. McCarron at quarterback and one of the best offensive lines in college football. The defense was stellar, and leadership returned for the second season. That’s why Alabama won three titles in four years.
Ironically, that team didn’t even repeat as SEC Champions, but they won back-to-back national titles. To be fair, Georgia also failed to win the SEC this year, so they might be on track.
So, why is it so hard to repeat? For starters, you have more turnover in college football than you do in the NFL. You lose a quarter of your roster every year, and stars usually like to leave after a title. You’re more likely to lose juniors, so you have to rely on new faces to win again.
Also, teams can get complacent. When you’re trying to build a dynasty, you lose the underdog mentality. You get everyone’s best game, but you lose the motivation to try as hard. It’s a lot to overcome, and it’s even harder to do in the College Football Playoff era with a transfer portal and NIL money. Coaches are losing power, and that is making college football fairer.
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The Bad News for Georgia
Teams are used to losing talent, but Georgia is facing one of the worst mass exoduses in the history of college football. It compares what LSU dealt with in 2019 and what the Tide handled in 2020. Obviously, those two situations had drastically different outcomes.
Georgia had a senior-led defense with studs at every position. Most of these players are heading to the NFL.
When you look at the recruiting strength of UGA, it is lined up with a title window of right now. That window is still open, but the players they relied on are now gone. They’ll have plenty of new faces, and few teams can handle this roster turnover.
Georgia does bring back the quarterback from the last year, but Bennett isn’t guaranteed the starting job. He played well, but he has a ceiling that could be exposed next year.
Georgia also lost a receiver to Alabama in the transfer portal, but they have a stud quarterback on the depth chart. We’ll see if he gets a shot.
So, Can Georgia Repeat?
Georgia will be a title contender once again, but I don’t see them overcoming the losses on this roster. They barely did it last year, and the roster will be significantly worse in 2022. You can’t ask Bennett to take over games without multiple young stars stepping up.
Also, Alabama retained its two best players. They will be looking for revenge in the SEC, and they could easily get it against the Bulldogs. I don’t see Nick Saban bowing down any time soon, so look out for a resurgence in Tuscaloosa.
Georgia should win the SEC East, but they should not be considered a top contender for the title. I’d still have Alabama and Ohio State above them.
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