We agree with what CBS did several years ago in making this a standalone football game. It honors all those who have served our country in a unique way.
Will the contest attract the same numbers as one of the college football playoff games? Of course not, but for 3 ½ to 4 hours, we can pay tribute to those who have served the United States or who will.
NCAAF BOWLS CONTEST ALERT: Win $1,000 + 10,000 BMR Baller Coins
Navy Midshipmen vs. Army Black Knights
Saturday, December 10, 2022 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
The opening betting odds had Army as a 1.5-point favorite, but this week they were shifted to the role of underdog. We presume that is because the talent is fairly similar, but since the Navy played in the American Conference compared to the independent status of the Army, they are more battle-tested.
Here is what the Black Knights need to do to lift their recent record to 5-2 SU against their most intense rival, and what you need to keep in mind for your betting picks.
And don't forget to check our guide on the best Pennsylvania betting sites if you're planning on placing your bets from the Keystone State.
Key 1 – Be Creative to Break Down Navy’s Stout Run Defense
On the year, Army is the No. 2 rushing offense in the country at 304 yards a game. As good as the Black Knights have been, Navy will present its greatest challenge, ranked 3rd in the country in stopping the run.
The Midshipmen have shown you cannot just line up against them and run between the tackles, which is a fundamental part of running the option for Army.
What coach Jeff Monken has to include is deception. That would be having running backs or receivers going in motion to pull someone out of position in the defensive “box”.
This can be accomplished in various ways, all with the intent of getting on the edge, outside the tackles, where if the blocking is executed properly, there would be running lanes for the Army to exploit.
The Black Knights’ lowest rushing total came against another rival, Air Force, with just 78 yards, and they will have to be creative and have exceptional execution to penetrate the Navy stop troops. The Army is capable; they just have to do it.
Key 2 – Grab The Lead To Put The Middies On the Defensive
The Navy comes into this clash 4-7 SU. What this tells us is despite how good the run defense is, they still have vulnerabilities. One such weakness for the Middies is against the pass, where they are 115th in yards allowed.
Unfortunately for the Army, like the Navy, they complete far less than half their passes and many are used as a surprise factor hoping to suck the safeties up to stop the run and fake the option and heave the ball deep.
A better and seemingly similar tact is to find a way to score first. This season, the team that posts the first score in a Navy contest is 10-1 SU. The Midshipmen are 4-0 when they tally first and 1-6 SU when they don’t.
Because the Navy only scores 22.4 PPG, nothing comes easy for them, and falling behind makes it even worse. With this series on a 16-0 run on Unders and the total at 32.5, a field goal seems like double the points and a touchdown seems like a 10-point lead.
Monken’s men have to grab the lead to put the pressure on.
Key 3 – Win First Down
Winning first down on offense and defense in any contest is important. But when you run an offense that lacks the quick strike element and the opposing team understands you as well as you do yourself, it is imperative to win 1st and 10.
The success of the service academy's offense is predicated on staying at or ahead of the chains. What can make these offenses so hard to stop is the blocking schemes and discipline needed to stop them. When they are 3rd and 3 or less or 4th and 18 inches, they are very virtually impossible to contain.
The Army's mission on defense is to have the Navy at 2nd and 8 or worse and on offense be at 2nd and 5 or less. If the Black Knights accomplish this two-thirds of the time on both sides of the ball, you can forget about them needing the 2.5-points, they will win outright.
NCAAF Pick: Army +2.5 (-104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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