At this point in the offseason, everyone wants to know who the dark-horse candidate is for the Heisman Trophy.
The favorites rarely win the award, and there is value if you can find the right underdog NCAAF pick.
A common candidate this season is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and it is easy to see why. Last year, the Ohio State Buckeyes had two elite receivers who were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Does Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is the Best-skill Player?
Still, JSN was the best-skill player on the field in every game. He is now the clear WR1 for the Buckeyes, and he has a great chance of shattering records in Columbus.
Receivers have the betting odds stacked against them, but there is a history of skilled players winning this award.
Smith-Njigba is listed at +3000 NCAAF future odds, which is tied for the eighth-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
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What are his true chances to win the award? Let’s break down the details of the situation and the barriers that may keep him from being the Heisman Trophy winner at the end of this college football season.
The History of Heisman Receivers
You can’t look at Heisman winners from 50 years ago and translate that to the current era. There is a new formula for winning the Heisman Trophy.
Players need to be the best player on their team with elite stats and a chance to win the National Championship.
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The last player to win the Heisman without competing for a title was Lamar Jackson, and he was out of this world as a talent.
Are Receivers Having the Same Recently?
For receivers, the only player to win the Heisman in recent memory was DeVonta Smith. Smith’s case was unique, though.
He was the clear WR1 for the clear-cut best team in college football. It was a COVID-limited season, so some of the best players in the sport were either not playing or missing too many games to be considered.
Alabama had three of the top five Heisman finishers that year, but the vast majority of the passing offense went through Smitty. He also helped on special teams, so his impact was multifaceted.
Before Smith, Desmond Howard was the last Heisman winner to play receiver. Howard also brought in two touchdowns on special teams, so he was another multifaceted receiver.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Competition
If you are looking at the overall competition to win the Heisman Trophy, JSN doesn’t need to look far.
His own teammate will be in the hunt as CJ Stroud leads the OSU offense this year.
Stroud is the favorite to win the Heisman, and he could easily be the first player drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Bryce Young will also be competing for the award. Young would be the second player ever to win the Heisman twice, and it would be Alabama football’s third straight win.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are other skill players who could win the Heisman Trophy, and there is a better history of running backs winning the award than receivers.
Needless to say, it will take an immaculate season from Jaxon Smith-Njigba if he wants to win the Heisman Trophy. So, what are his true chances to do so?
Can JSN Win the Heisman?
I see the +3000 odds and think that there is a positive value. The likelihood of Smith-Njigba winning the Heisman is low, but he will be in the discussion if he stays healthy.
He will easily be the best receiver in college football, and he will be in an offense that will feature him accordingly.
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The stats will be there, and Smith-Njigba will be ready to take over the Big Ten as the true WR1. If we see a down year from the other candidates, we could see Smith-Njigba become a finalist.
If Ohio State is the best team in college football because of his play, then he should win the Heisman Trophy.
The betting odds are slim, but it is still valuable because of the value of the best bet.
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