Top NCAAF Pick: Georgia Over 11½ Wins +120 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Changes are afoot in the Southeastern Conference after this season when the league expands for the 2024 gridiron campaign. But until then, it looks like business as usual this fall, when Georgia is expected to continue to dominate the college football world. Can the Bulldogs be stopped?
Key Facts
- From 2003-22, 14 of the 20 National Champions were from the SEC.
- Georgia and Alabama are 1-2 on NCAAF futures odds to win the College Football Playoffs.
- Tennessee and LSU are the top picks to upset Georgia and Alabama in the SEC.
Want to know the real reason why college football is expanding its playoffs this year? I mean, do you want to know the reason besides the extra bazillion dollars from packed stadiums in the 12-team playoff format, and a gazillion more in television revenue?
It’s the only way to at least slow the SEC’s domination on the gridiron, a domination that still finds the league posting the top two teams on college football futures boards, three of the top seven, and four of the top 13. That concentration will only deepen when Texas and Oklahoma join the SEC a year from now.
Dawgs & Tide Draw Top Odds
You have to go back 100 years or so to find a school laying claims to three or more successive national titles, and those are contested by one poll or another. So, we could be witnessing history if Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs win a third consecutive College Football Playoff title.
Georgia is picked to do just that; after opening around +300 to three-peat, the Bulldogs are now showing up +235 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review). Alabama is next on the CFP list at around +500 after opening +600. The Bulldogs and Tide are naturally 1-2 on the SEC odds.
Setting the bar for the highest regular season win total this season is Georgia at 11½, with the ‘under’ carrying extra juice. Alabama is at 10½, the ‘under’ also taxed. The only team seriously standing in Georgia’s way of a 12-0 run is Tennessee, with that matchup coming late on the slate in Week 12.
Alabama’s slate includes far more potential missteps with home dates against Tennessee, Texas and LSU, plus a trip to College Station to play the Aggies in Week 6. There’s a much better chance of the Bulldogs running the table at 12-0 than the Crimson Tide going 11-1.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia Over 11½ Wins +120 at Bookmaker
Vols & Tigers Potential Flies in the Ointment
While the road to the SEC Championship certainly favors another Georgia and Alabama matchup, nothing is ever that easy in the league. Standing ready to slip into the title mix are Tennessee and LSU.
The Tigers will be trying to repeat at the top of the SEC West after winning the division last season in Brian Kelly’s first year running the show in Baton Rouge. Louisiana State has a 9½-win total and is +475 to win the SEC Championship. Kelly and the Tigers face a tough Week 1 matchup with Florida State in Orlando, and are 2½-point favorites on NCAAF odds boards.
Josh Heupel and the Volunteers made a strong push a year ago and ended with an 11-2 record after a 7-6 showing in 2021. Tennessee is showing up with a 9-win total at many of the top US sportsbooks, and the schedule maker didn’t do the Volunteers any favors by having to play both Georgia and Alabama, plus Texas A&M.
Jimbo on Proverbial Hot Seat in College Station
Speaking of Texas A&M, now would be a good time for me to disclose that I was born with maroon blood and have been a Texas Aggie since approximately 9 months before birth. My wish is always for Texas A&M to win the National Championship.
It should also be disclosed that I was born with a fair amount of pessimism plus a decent amount of objectivity, and my fade will be strong on the Aggies to begin this season. Jimbo Fisher has already proven to be a liability, and adding Bobby Petrino to the mix is a recipe for disaster.
There is definitely enough talent to make me eat my words, and perhaps the Fisher/Petrino coupling catches lightning in a bottle. But they must be 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS going into the Week 6 matchup against Alabama at Kyle Field to impress me, and I don’t see that happening with 8-4 a best-case scenario for the Aggies this year.
NCAAF Pick: Texas A&M Under 8 Wins +120 at Bookmaker
Gamecocks Could be Profitable Spread Busters
Improving from 7 wins to 8 might not be that big of a deal, but it is important to remember those are South Carolina’s win totals the first two years under Shane Beamer, who inherited a program that had gone 6-16 in 2020-21.
No, the Gamecocks aren’t going to take the next step up to 10 wins, possibly not even 9, but they could be a good follow for your NCAAF picks this season. They face North Carolina at a not-so-neutral site in Charlotte in Week 1, and the Gamecocks are 3-point underdogs. I’ll take the points there, and I’ll also bet the ‘over’ on USC’s 6½-win total.
NCAAF Pick: South Carolina Over 6½ Wins +105 at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
