NCAAF Pick: Under 9½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Kalen DeBoer’s first year as Washington’s head coach couldn’t have gone much better. The Huskies produced the second-best offense in the nation and the No. 1 passing offense, while storming to 11 wins.
Washington won seven in a row to close the season, and the Huskies did it against a challenging schedule that included wins over 10-win Oregon State and Oregon, as well as eight-win Texas and seven-win Washington State. Washington played in its first bowl game since 2019, and only back-to-back losses by single digits at UCLA and Arizona State kept the Huskies from playing for the Pac-12 title and a chance at a playoff berth.
It’s easy to write off a first-year coach having one of the best seasons in school history as a fluke or aberration, but there are reasons to believe that Washington could produce a similar performance in 2023.
The Huskies bring back a large portion of the core that won 11 games last year, particularly on the offense that was so dangerous. Expectations are high as the top offshore sportsbooks have capped the Huskies’ season wins at 9½. Can they live up to the hype?
Key Facts
- Washington won 11 games in 2022 including their last seven.
- The Huskies return a large number of starters, including quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
- Washington had the country’s best passing offense and No. 2 overall offense last year.
Offense
The Huskies scored 39.7 points per game in 2022 and gained 515.8 yards. They bring back the player that was the key to that production in quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who threw for 4,641 yards, second most in the NCAA, and 31 touchdowns last season.
Penix will have his top two receivers back in Rome Odunze (75 catches, 1,145 yards, seven touchdowns) and Jalen McMillan (79, 1098 and 9). Washington also added a transfer from Michigan State in Germie Bernard.
Filling the Holes
The Huskies lose their top rusher in Wayne Taulapapa, but Mississippi State transfer Dillon Johnson will get the chance to help fill the hole he leaves. The team also returns backups Cameron Davis (522 yards and a team-high 13 rushing touchdowns) and Richard Newton (213 yards, one score).
The line allowed the fewest tackles for loss in the country last year and the second-fewest sacks. They lose the three men in the middle but will try to rebuild behind returning tackles Roger Rosengarten and Troy Fautanu.
The line will also be a factor in Penix’s year. He battled injury throughout his college career but finally produced a year that had him eighth in Heisman balloting in large part because he was able to stay healthy. Keeping Penix upright and feeling good will be crucial in 2023.
Defense
Washington gave up 30 points in a game five times last season, including both losses. The Huskies were able to pressure the quarterback last season, but when opposing passers got the pass off, things often went wrong. The Huskies gave up 251.5 yards per game through the air.
New Secondary
They rebuilt the secondary with help from the transfer portal, bringing in corner Jabbar Muhammad from Oklahoma State. He had nine pass defenses last year, but his production numbers are low because his coverage prevents passes from coming his way in the first place.
The linebacker unit will also have a new look, with USC transfer Ryan Goforth and former starter Edefuan Ulofoshio, who missed last season due to injury. Bralen Trice, who had nine sacks and led the country in quarterback pressures, returns to the line, which also has veteran talent in tackle Tuli Letuligasenoa and end Zion Tupuola-Fetui.
2023 Schedule
The schedule will be challenging for the Huskies, although other than the trip to USC (Week 10) to start November, they shouldn’t be underdogs in too many games. Their non-conference slate is a pair of home games to start the year, against Boise State (Week 1), a bowl team in 2022, and 5-7 Tulsa (Week 2).
Then they take a trip to Michigan State in Week 3. Washington beat the Spartans at home in 2022, but it’s hard to assume a road win over a Big Ten team. The Pac-12 schedule is a mixed bag. They avoid a game with UCLA but also miss out on last-place Colorado.
November will be a challenge as the trip to USC is followed by a home game against Utah (Week 11) and a trip to Oregon State (Week 12), meaning they’ll face three straight opponents currently ranked in the top 20 before closing the season with the rivalry game against Washington State.
The Pick
The defense should be better than last year and the offense almost as good, although the interior of the line, and, by extension, Penix’s health, is a concern.
For our NCAAF picks, we’ve got the Huskies losing two in November and hitting a stumbling block earlier in the season for nine wins.
NCAAF Pick: Under 9½ Wins (-140) at BetOnline
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