Arsenal go into this game on the back of a superb six-game winning run and are playing some great football, so they should make short work of Bulgarian minnows Ludogorets. The gulf in class is enormous and the odds reflect this: Arsenal are just 1.17 and Ludogorets are 29.00. You, therefore have to dig a little deeper to get some value out of this match.
Arsenal haven’t lost since a a 4-3 reverse at the hands of Liverpool on the opening day of the season. In that game they had Rob Holding and Calum Chambers at the back, but the return of Laurent Koscielny shored up their defence and the arrival of Shkodran Mustafi bolstered it further. Those two have formed a fantastic partnership in front of Petr Cech and Arsenal are unbeaten in 10. They shook off any fatigue from the international break and recorded a good win over Swansea last time out despite being reduced to 10 men.
Going forwards Arsenal have been sensational. They have scored 26 goals in 11 games this season in all competitions, and things have really clicked. The front three of Theo Walcott, Alexis Sanchez and Alex Iwobi is full of pace, trickery, incision and dynamism, and Mesut Ozil has been pulling the strings to devastating effect.
They secured a strong 1-1 draw away against group favourites PSG in their opening Champions League game, and followed that up with a 2-0 home win over Basel. They are top of Group A, level on points with PSG, and are 2.10 second favourites to win it, with PSG on 1.90, and that looks a good bet. You would expect Arsenal to beat Ludogorets home and away, and the match to decide who wins the group would be played at the Emirates, where Arsenal have the ability to beat PSG in front of their home fans. Arsenal are just 1.06 to qualify from this group as the bookmakers feel it is practically a foregone conclusion. Ludogorets meanwhile are 201.00 to win the group and 23.00 to qualify. They are bottom of the group, and like Basel they have just one point, having lost to PSG and drawn with Basel.
The unheralded Bulgarian side did well to secure that away draw against Basel, on a night when goalkeeper Vladislav Stoyanov pulled off a string of fine saves. Still Ludogorets are less dangerous than Basel, and Arsenal swatted aside Basel with ease, so they should beat Ludogorets comfortably. A great option is Arsenal to win to nil, which is 1.80 with Paddy Power. Arsenal did concede two last time out against Swansea but should have learned from those defensive lapses by Wednesday. Basel rarely threatened their goal and you would expect Koscielny and co to up their game for the Champions League. Arsenal showed how well they can defend in a recent 3-0 win over Chelsea, and they would be disappointed to concede to Ludogorets. Another option would be to give Arsenal a handicap. Arsenal -1 doesn’t get you much better odds than the straight win, just 1.40 with most green listed bookmakers, so you have to go to Arsenal -2, which is 2.20 with Paddy Power. It’s risky as Arsenal are a bit wasteful in front of goal and they could take their foot off the brake if they are ahead by two clear goals. But this group could be decided by goal difference if Arsenal and PSG take maximum points from Basel and Ludogorets and draw once more with each other at the Emirates – a scenario that seems likely – so Arsenal will want to rack up a good scoreline at home to a team currently 1501.00 to win the Champions League.
Walcott has been in excellent form of late. He scored twice against Swansea and should have had four, but his movement off the ball was excellent and he took up some very dangerous positions. He is 2.20 with Bet Stars to score at any time in this match and that looks a good bet.
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