At the end of the Group stages the quarter-final line up was set as follows (seeding in brackets)
Friday (UK times)
8.30am Brumbies (4) v Highlanders (5)
Saturday
8.30am Hurricanes (1) v Sharks (8)
3.30pm Lions (2) v Crusaders (7)
6pm Stormers (3) v Chiefs (6)
The Hurricanes won 35-10 at the Crusaders in round 17 and leapt to the top of the standings when the Chiefs lost to the Highlanders and then the Lions lost later in the day in Argentina. The Brumbies won the Australian conference to secure the fourth seed.
Three of the four ties see New Zealand teams favourites to progress to the semi-finals, the exception being the Crusaders who are underdogs in South Africa against the Lions. Take note for when you place your bets with the best green-listed bookmakers.
Brumbies (4) vs. Highlanders (5)
The Brumbies had to wait until the final round of the regular season to seal top spot in the Australian Conference with a 24-10 home win over the Force. Their overall record comprised of 10 wins and 5 defeats and in Canberra, they won 6 and lost 2. Interestingly the 2 defeats on home soil came against New Zealand opposition, the Chiefs won here 48-23 in Round 6 and the Crusaders won 40-14 in Round 9 and the Brumbies conceded 6 tries in both of those matches.
The Highlanders finished second in the New Zealand Conference where just 3 points covered the top 4 sides. They won 11 and lost 4 of their matches in the regular season and away from home they won 5 and lost 3. The Highlanders record in Australia this season included wins over the Waratahs (30-26) and the Rebels (27-3) early in the tournament but they were beaten 28-27 by the Reds in Brisbane in Round 7.
Through the group stages, it was clear that the New Zealand franchises were superior to their Australian counterparts and the Highlanders are coming off a superb 25-15 win against the previously table topping Chiefs and have a 6 out of 8 win record against the quarter final line up in this year’s group games.
The Chiefs are 8/13 best priced to win here with Ladbrokes, and expect them to progress, probably covering the 4 point handicap at 10/11 generally
Hurricanes (1) vs. Sharks (8)
The Hurricanes are now New Zealand Conference winners back to back. A trip to Christchurch looked a little daunting for the Canes last weekend but last year’s beaten finalists pulled off a fantastic result, a 35-10 win putting them top of the Conference where they stayed after the Chiefs fell in Dunedin.
For the Sharks, who have taken the last wild card spot and 8th play-off seeding, this is an enormous task. The Sharks were inconsistent as they stumbled their way to beating the Sunwolves on Friday. They travel to Wellington with barely a hope bar sucking the Hurricanes into a forwards battle.
The Hurricanes are the biggest favourites of the weekend at 2/9 outright and the Sharks are 4/1 underdogs. The Hurricanes are -12 on the handicap. I think they will cover that in what should be a one-sided game
Lions (2) vs. Crusaders (7)
The Lions missed the chance to secure a home route to a possible Super Rugby final after they went down 34-22 to the Jaguares at Vélez Sarsfield last weekend and will now play host to the Crusaders.
The Lions rested their first-choice XV to keep them fresh for the knockout stage and may now be regretting the selection decision with a much tougher quarter final on their agenda.
The Crusaders lost by a bigger margin than anyone would have expected at home to the Hurricanes, 35-10 and suffered a double injury blow in the game key backs Andy Ellis and Nemani Nadolo have been ruled out of their quarter-final against the Lions in Johannesburg due to injury. Furthermore, they travel to South Africa late with no flights until Tuesday, though set against that the Lions had a long trip back from Buenos Aires.
This should be close, and is priced as such with the Lions best priced 10/11, the Crusaders 21/20. I expect the Crusaders to win a tight one
Stormers (3) vs. Chiefs (6)
The Chiefs lost to the Highlanders 25-15 in Dunedin meaning they have to take the long trip to Cape Town rather than a quick trip to Canberra in the Quarter Finals. The Chiefs have been touted as one of the best sides in the competition but didn’t look so great against the Highlanders when it mattered most, going into the final round as New Zealand Conference leaders.
The Stormers have had a successful season winning 10 and drawing 1 of their 15 games and having the joint best defensive record in the competition only having conceded 28 tries through the group stages.
This too should be a very tight game and it is interesting to see the Stormers priced as 11/8 underdogs with William Hill with the Chiefs best priced 8/13 elsewhere. On value grounds, the Stormers are a bet here to spoil the New Zealand party in the Quarter finals
Recommendations:
Highlanders -4 to beat the Brumbies 10/11 at WilliamHill
Hurricanes -12 to beat the Sharks 10/11 at WilliamHill
Crusaders to beat the Lions 21/20 at WilliamHill
Stormers to beat the Chiefs 11/8 at WilliamHill
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