We are 2 rounds into the Olympic Games in Tokyo. Which Olympians present the best value in Olympic odds to take home the gold medal?
Men’s Gold
Novak Djokovic -200
Novak is the clear-cut favorite in every tournament he enters and will be for the foreseeable future. Djokovic excels on hard courts and it is so very hard to oppose him. You could argue that there is a value even at this depressed number. He’s dominated the field this season. However, this is best 2 out of 3 where his younger rivals have a better chance to prevail in the format as it only takes 2 amazing sets to win. Because it is best of 3, at the price being offered (-200) I find no value in betting Novak at this point.
Alexander Zverev +850
Zverev has struggled in grand slams but he has found success in the masters 1000 which are best of 3 sets, the same as the Olympic tournament. Zverev is also helped by the fact that the courts in Tokyo are playing slow which lends an advantage to his defensive baseline style game. While Djokovic is the rightful favorite Zverev has beaten him before, on a similar playing surface in a Masters 1000 final in Miami. Zverev has the game to keep up with Djokovic, especially in backhand to backhand rallies where Djokovic usually excels. Stefanos Tsistsipas and Daniel Medvedev’s outright prices are half the price that Zverev is, yet all 3 have an equal chance in my opinion. It is most likely that Novak will win, but the best value on the men’s side can be found in Alexander Zverev outright
Women’s Gold
Garbine Muguruza +230
Muguruza becomes the favorite after Osaka’s shocking loss. Muguruza has won the French Open and Wimbledon and will be looking to add Olympic gold to her trophy case. Garbine has an all-court game with power and an elite serve. Garbine’s major weakness is consistency. She can look to be a top player in the world and then the next day barely resemble that player. Because Garbine is so inconsistent I do not see any value at the price of +230
Paula Badosa Gibert +450
I’m a big fan of Badosa’s game. She has had a breakthrough 2021. She plays an all-court game, which lends itself to the slower hard courts in Tokyo and she’s shown consistency and mental toughness this season to be able to overcome challenges. Unfortunately, she started the tournament at +4000. At +450, the value on Badosa to take home the gold is gone.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +500
Again this is another price that I feel is too short for a player who I cannot trust to be consistent, especially in big moments. Pavlyuchenkova has shown flashes of brilliance yet has not been able to put it together for a full tournament at the top level. Similar to Garbine, Pavlyuchenkova’s lack of consistency makes me unable to back her at the price of +500.
Elana Rybakina +600
Rybakina has a big serve, a big forehand, and nerves of steel. Rybakina’s infallible demeanor gives her an advantage as she makes her way through a field of undecorated players. Yet at +600 I feel this number is right and does not present any value.
Elina Svitolina +800
Similar to the Alexander Zverev pick on the men’s side, Svitolina is a player that does well on the slower hard courts. She has an underrated serve but relies on a defensive baseline-oriented game. With the way the courts are playing in Tokyo, Elina’s strengths are accentuated by the surface and the temperatures. She is a dark horse candidate due to some of her failures in Grand Slams. However, Svitolina is newly married, without a lot of pressure or expectations in this tournament and that makes her ripe to shock the tennis world and take home Olympic gold. To get a player of Svitolina’s caliber at 8 to 1 is too much value to pass up.
Marketa Vondrousova +900
Vandersova returned to her dominating ways as she dispatched Naomi Osaka in the biggest upset on the women’s side so far. Vondrousova is a top-level talent but had been struggling with her form this season. As with all top-level talent, however, she can find her form and be dangerous quickly. At +900, Vondrousova definitely deserves to be considered.
Belinda Bencic +1100
Belinda is like Svitolina where the surface plays in her favor as they have similar defensive games with strong consistent groundstrokes. They are comfortable redirecting pace which makes them dangerous in these conditions. However, I don’t trust her as much as I trust Svitolina, not on this stage, as I don’t believe that she has the same ability to win easily on her service games. I like Svitolina’s number much better at 8 to 1, as I believe she’s just a better version of Belinda at this point in their respective careers.
Camilla Giorgi +1200
Giorgi is that the wild card in every event as she can show up, play with power, and beat anyone when she’s on. Unfortunately for Giorgi, she’s not “on” as often as she would like. Giorgi is famous for not following the women’s tour and viewing tennis as a job rather than a love. However, at her best, she can beat anyone. Yet I don’t trust her to be consistent for the rest of the tournament. So even at 12 to 1, I will stay away from making this bet.
Tennis Pick: Alexander Zverev to win gold (+850) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)
Tennis Pick: Elina Svitolina to win gold (+800) at BookMaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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