We are heading into the third round of games in this year’s Six Nations Championship which has England leading as the only unbeaten team after two games each. Through two rounds all four games not involving Italy have been won by seven points or less, or one score, and this confirms what an even championship this is.
Saturday: Scotland v Wales – 2:25 pm
Scotland lost by six points in France in Round 2 where the French power up front made the difference and Scotland were disrupted by a number of injuries. Two of those injuries have ruled out captain Greg Laidlaw and number 8 Josh Strauss for this game and this is important.
Scotland, while increasingly competitive with their first choice side, lack strength in depth (a function of their domestic game). Laidlaw is captain and game manager and Strauss one of their more powerful forwards in a comparatively lightweight pack.
On the other side, Wales led England for much of their game in Cardiff but didn’t convert pressure into enough points when on top and were made to pay by a late try. There was much to be encouraged about with Wales performance, particularly in the back row and at half back and they will hope to follow that up here in a game which both teams must win to stay in the hunt for the Championship.
What could make the difference here is experience and the tactical game, where Wales have a decided advantage. Scotland have plenty of flair and firepower in the backs but might struggle to manage the game against Dan Biggar whose kicking game is probably the best in the Championship.
Odds for the game suggest that this will be very close and I agree. Best prices are Scotland 21/20, Wales11/10 and +/-1 on the points handicap. I like Wales at odds against and also like Wales to win by 1-12 points at 19/10 with Skybet. I would be surprised if this was a double digit win either way.
Saturday: Ireland v France – 4:50 pm
Ireland must be rueing their slow start in the first half of round 1 at Murrayfield as after playing much better in the second half they then traveled to Rome and tore into Italy and won 63-10 scoring nine tries
This weekend they should get Jonny Sexton back at fly-half which is a big boost as he is a world class player and playing territory against a dangerous opponent like France will be vital.
France are developing after several years in the doldrums. A massive pack is helping the play off the front foot and from 1-15 the off-loading game is creating opportunities.
The one main caveat here is that France are away from home, where traditionally they struggle and should be matched by Ireland’s pack in the tight exchanges. How they perform, emotionally as much as physically, if on the back foot for long spells is the big unknown for this side
Prices for the game understandably have Ireland as favourites at 4/11 with France 5/2. Ireland are -7 on the points handicap at a general 10/11.
Ireland should win, and Betfair Sportsbook’s 6/4 about doing so by 1-12 points looks a valid bet though not the value the Wales price above is
Sunday: England v Italy – 3:00 pm
England have been below par twice and won twice and are now 16 games unbeaten. It speaks to their mental toughness that they can pull out these wins.
Changes are likely here with a tougher looking game on the horizon next week. The squad has enviable strength in depth and key players are coming back from injury and this should be a chance to re-introduce them
Italy faces a daunting task here under their new coach after losing by a near record 53 points at home to Ireland last time. With the investments in the youth game domestically they might be half a generation from being competitive in the six nations but for now, don’t have sufficient quality players to threaten England at home and are an incredible 80/1 to win here.
England are -42 point favourites on the handicap and I suppose if pushed I would say they will cover, but a no bet game for me
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