Those ancestry websites have probably seen a spike in the last week since Wales made European Championship history by beating Belgium. Hordes of Englishman have been logging on in the desperate hope of unearthing a Welsh grandmother so they can legitimately roar on an adopted country against Portugal on Wednesday.
The newspapers have been at it, too – listing the number of Wales players born in England. If Wales win Euro 2016, no doubt they’ll be reminding us that all but two of the squad ply their trade in England. In desperate, haughty tones the folks who have been unable to discover lineage will scoff: “Yeah but they all learnt how to play in England didn’t they?”
That may be true but shouldn’t that make England’s pathetic exit all the more galling? A sub-plot to the gulf Wales are opening up is the respective performances of two of Arsenal’s midfielders – Aaron Ramsey and Jack Wilshere. Ramsey sparked Wales. Wilshere suffocated England.
Ramsey will miss the semi-final after a yellow card against Belgium and after emerging as a genuine candidate for player of the tournament, Wales have suddenly lost their label as a one-man team. Gareth Bale, despite three goals, has not been the be all and end all.
By contrast Portugal have been all about the ‘one’ – Cristiano Ronaldo. The match has been billed as Ronaldo v Bale, Galactico v Galactico. But a more realistic clash is of individual v team. Wales have been more than the sum of their parts. Portugal have looked hampered by Ronaldo’s selfishness.
Whether Wales are able to cover the loss of Ramsey is the chief question for a tie which they are 2.65 (NetBet) to qualify from. Portugal are 1.57 (Skybet, Paddy Power).
Ramsey has four assists in the tournament – that’s one fewer than he managed in the entire Premier League last season –and he has created 15 chances. Only four players have managed more.
Off the ball he is vital. He presses and harries opposition defenders high up the pitch, allowing Wales to win back the ball and mount attacks.
So how will Wales fare without him? One suspects not as well because Ramsey’s industry has meant teams cannot solely focus on stopping Bale, which freed up room for the Real Madrid man to shine.
Bale might have to come looking for the ball now and feel it is his job to be more creative and thrusting in Ramsey’s absence. It is a challenge that Wales ‘the team’ come first. He is 3.35 to score at any time with Unibet, 32Red and Stan James and 6.5 (Bet365) to be man of the match.
The task of replacing Ramsey will be given to the pocket dynamo Jonny Williams. He will buzz around the fringes of the opposition box, trying to play in short passes or one-twos. This could provide Bale with free kick opportunities. Bale is 10 with Unibet to score from outside the box.
If Bale does suddenly feel pressure to up the ante, Ronaldo certainly does. His angst at carrying his Portuguese team-mates has been clear to see on his face during a mixed tournament.
Bookmakers Review breaks down the fixtures below and lists the best available odds from green-listed bookmakers.
His utter desperation to win will surely result in him taking a shot whenever he is in range and although the tightness that will result from his panic is a negative, by sheer weight of chances the 2.25 that he scores any time with Ladbrokes will be popular. He is 3.75 for man of the match (Bet365, Coral). The real eye-catching value is the 10 to score from outside the box with William Hill.
Ronaldo has had an incredible 38 attempts on goal in Euro 2016. That’s 7.6 per game. When you consider that number betting on him to hit the onion bag in Lyon means you certainly get a run for your money.
The Soothsayers Say
Algorithms, stats sheets and boffins can take out the joy of football rather. It’s much more fun to proclaim that anything can happen, no? Not when it comes to betting. The smart folk at the Soccer Power Index predicted before a ball was kicked that France and Portugal would contest the final. They’re well on course. You can still get a wager on, of course. It’s 3 across the board. And just for the dreamers – France v Wales is 5.5 (Coral).
Market in Focus
Next manager betting is fraught with danger. If you subscribe to the notion (and you should) that we only bet if we believe we know more than the bookmaker, why the hell would anyone wager on this market?
Are you in touch with the chairman making the decision? Have you seen the shortlist? Has the manager’s agent given you the nod?
It won’t stop a flurry of money on Next England Manager, though. Jurgen Klinsmann is favourite at 8 with BetVictor and Sam Allardyce is 9 with Unibet, Betbright, NetBet. Allardyce is probably the shrewdest call because his enlightened ways – don’t be fooled by the gruff exterior – could actually help the basket-base national team.
If you want some inside info, Gus Hiddink has, apparently, thrown his hat into the ring. He’s 10 with Betfred.
Calculators
