The NFL Draft is less than a month away, and we are getting closer and closer to seeing where these college stars start their NFL journeys. Over 250 athletes will hear their names called, and they will take the first step in their professional careers.
With NFL free agency well underway, we have a good picture of what the new year will look like. Teams are filling needs, and that will shift priorities for the upcoming draft. Depth still matters, but teams can address other top-tier needs in the first round.
Also, plenty of first-round NFL picks have been traded. The Broncos sent their first to Seattle, and Miami sent theirs to Kansas City. The Browns sent theirs to Houston, and we still might not be done. This changing of the NFL Draft order will shift mock drafts, but it also impacts NFL Draft bets.
With less than a month and little more to learn, here are some first round props to take before the 2022 NFL Draft. Some of these are likely to happen, and others just have value above where the line currently sits. All odds come from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
1st WR Selected: Garrett Wilson (+110)
Wide receivers have been hard to predict in recent years. However, speed has been prioritized by top teams. Faster players are going higher and higher, which is why I have Wilson being the first receiver taken. He had speed at Ohio State, and he’s performed better than his competitors in the pre-draft process.
While I like the risky value of Jameson Williams at +700, I could see Wilson going as early as No. 8 to the Atlanta Falcons. He fits their scheme, and they need a receiver desperately.
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You can debate the production of the receivers, but the class as a whole is incredibly talented. Plenty of receivers will go early. Still, Wilson sets himself apart near the top, and getting the concensus WR1 at positive value is great at this point in the season. Once more Pro Days happen and rumors continue to spread, I expect this value to plummet.
By the NFL Draft, this will likely be a -150 bet. Getting Wilson at +110 right now is a steal, and there aren’t many obstacles in his way that will keep him from being the first receiver drafted in April.
Under 3.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round (-250)
I don’t like the value of this bet, but it makes too much sense right now. Even in a world where teams are desperate to take a quarterback, none are worth reaching on at this point. This is the worst quarterback class since EJ Manuel was drafted in the first round.
Malik Willis is doing the heavy lifting of this class, and he will likely go in the top 12 picks. After him, the only two quarterbacks worth considering are Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral. Neither would be first-round picks last year, but they will be considered due to desperation by many teams.
READ MORE: Early Value on 2022 NFL Draft Props Market
Even with the vaulted priority of taking a quarterback, the other players are second-round prospects at best. They all have flaws, and few of them have high ceilings. Whether it’s age or hand size or immaturity, all of these quarterbacks have some sort of red flag.
Expect Willis to go early, and Pickett will likely go in the top 20. Corral could be a late pick if a team trades back into the first round, but players like Ridder and Strong should be available on Day 2.
Under 4.5 CB’s Drafted in the First Round (-150)
This is surprising value because of the names on this list. Sauce Gardner is seen as the best corner in the class, and Derek Stingley Jr. has been hyped since his freshman year at LSU. After that, you have some questions marks. Andrew Booth Jr. was a solid corner for Clemson, but he is mocked in the last few picks of the first round. If teams trade up for other needs, he could slip.
Trent McDuffie is seen as CB3, but he will likely drop to the 20s due to other needs from teams. Plenty of teams need a corner, but there isn’t anyone outside of Gardner or possibly Stingley who can immediately change the outcome for a defense.
If a fifth corner were to be drafted, look at Roger McCreary from Auburn. He is undersized, but a team might reach for him due to his awareness =in the defensive backfield. Don’t forget to place your action at one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks.
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