NFL Pick: Christian Gonzalez Draft Position – Under 8.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
It is draft week in the NFL with the first round kicking off Thursday night. BetOnline, a top-rated online sportsbook from Panama, has almost 20 prop bets for top prospects where you can bet the Over/Under on where they will go in the draft.
In a draft with so much unpredictability going into the first round, we are looking at our favorite value NFL picks.
Christian Gonzalez (Oregon CB) – Draft Position
- Under 8.5
Gonzalez is a favorite corner of many draft experts, and he is the kind of building block a defense that needs to turn things around could use. This is why the Lions (No. 6), Raiders (No. 7), and Falcons (No. 8) are such enticing spots for him in the first round.
The Lions spent a big chunk of last season as a top offense and bottom-ranked defense. The Raiders have struggled on defense for seemingly two decades now. The Falcons can say similar things, and Atlanta seems content with staying out of the quarterback market with Desmond Ridder in town.
Barring any weird trades for reaches, it seems very unlikely that Gonzalez will make it past the No. 8 pick.
Darnell Wright (Tennessee OT) – Draft Position
- Over 14.5
The 9-to-16 range in the first round figures to be a hot spot for the offensive linemen in this draft class. Most still rank Darnell Wright behind the likes of Paris Johnson Jr., Broderick Jones, and Peter Skoronski.
With that many players on the line ahead of Wright, the chances of the Eagles taking a running back (Bijan Robinson), and the likelihood of the Titans (No. 11) and Texans (No. 12) waiting for a quarterback, that pushes Wright towards the end of this range.
A team like Washington (No. 16) has done extensive drafting with the defensive line and front seven, but it may be time to start investing in the offensive line too. Either way, that would put the pick of Wright in the bottom half of the round, so we are going with his Over at the NFL odds.
NFL Pick: Darnell Wright Draft Position – Over 14.5 (-120) at BetOnline
Hendon Hooker (Tennessee QB) – Draft Position
- Over 31.5
Does anyone really know what any team, save for maybe Carolina (Bryce Young), is doing with the quarterbacks in this draft? For months, under 4.5 first-round quarterbacks were the favorite betting market, but some still think Hendon Hooker has a shot to make it five.
Remember, there are only 31 picks in the first round this year since the Dolphins had to forfeit their pick for tampering with Sean Payton and Tom Brady. While many believe getting the fifth-year option with a first-round quarterback pick is so valuable, the truth is you need to pay that player for the second contract before that fifth year. It should not take that long to figure out if he is worth it or not too.
With Hooker, you have a very raw quarterback who is older and coming off a serious injury suffered late in the season. It just does not feel like a wise investment to use a first-round pick on such a project.
Also, when you have a draft where everyone is lukewarm and confused about the quarterbacks, that usually leads to those players slipping in the draft. We should get the four quarterbacks in the first round, but take the over on Hooker to fall to the second round.
NFL Pick: Hendon Hooker Draft Position – Over 31.5 (+150) at BetOnline
Peter Skoronski (Northwestern OT/OG) – Draft Position
- Under 10.5
Depending on whom you ask, some will say Peter Skoronski is the best offensive line prospect in this draft. His versatility and experience go a long way in building that level of expectation. Some believe he can be a solid tackle, but a Pro Bowl guard should he move inside.
It is possible that versatility is what sends Skoronski to the Bears at No. 9 as they certainly need the offensive line help, and they love to run the football as we know. So do the Eagles at No. 10, and that line is not getting any younger despite its greatness last season.
Do not discredit the Falcons going with Skoronski at No. 8 as another team that likes to run the ball, but defense is more likely with that No. 8 pick. Still, under 10.5 for Skoronski should be the right call and the right value pick for that team.
NFL Pick: Peter Skoronski Draft Position – Under 10.5 (-175) at BetOnline
Jalen Carter (Georgia DT) – Draft Position
- Over 6.5
It is very common for a draft to feature a very talented prospect who continues to fall for off-field concerns. We saw it happen to Laremy Tunsil in 2016 after a bizarre marijuana video was released so close to draft night, and he went with the No. 13 pick. A year later, linebacker Reuben Foster was a top-10 pick for many, but his off-field issues dragged him down to No. 31.
Even the great Randy Moss once slipped to No. 21 in the 1998 draft over off-the-field concerns. In some cases, these concerns were overblown. In others, they were justified.
But Carter is that player in this draft as he was considered the top defender over Will Anderson Jr. at one point in January before his involvement in a fatal car crash. Now some teams have moved him down their board and the expectations are that he will slip, possibly to the third or fourth defensive line prospect.
With the quarterbacks, Will Anderson Jr., and Tyree Wilson available at the top of the draft, it seems unlikely Carter will go in the top six picks this year. We like his Over a lot.
NFL Pick: Jalen Carter Draft Position – Over 6.5 (-220) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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