NFL Pick: 2023 AFC South – Jacksonville Jaguars -154 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Last year’s AFC South division race was far from predictable. The Indianapolis Colts’ initial favoritism with the addition of Matt Ryan quickly unraveled, exposing their team’s weaknesses. While the Tennessee Titans began strongly at 7-3, their subsequent winless streak dashed hopes of a top seed.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, despite a shaky start, staged an impressive turnaround, securing the division title with a pivotal fumble recovery for a touchdown against the Titans in Week 18. This single play reshaped the 2023 NFL futures, placing the Jaguars as clear favorites, led by a proven franchise quarterback.
Though other teams drafted top quarterbacks, the Jaguars’ ability to maintain their newfound success in 2023 remains uncertain.
Considering the odds, the Colts offer an intriguing option due to their potential value. The Jaguars, however, stand out as the team to support in this scenario, given their recent success and established quarterback. Yet, the road ahead is laden with challenges as they strive to preserve their triumph.
Quick Overview
Here are the current AFC South odds from the top offshore sportsbooks, for the 2023-24 NFL season, as of August 9, 2023.
Key Facts
- Trevor Lawrence went from 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions for 3,641 passing yards in his first year to a demonstrably better 2022 in which he tossed 25 touchdowns with only eight interceptions for 4,113 yards, completing 66.3 percent of his passes.
- Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker give Tennessee an outstanding duo at safety while the return of Harold Landry will give their pass rush a significant boost.
- Overall, Indianapolis boasts a dynamite defensive line if all the moving parts come together which will keep them competitive despite what will be a lackluster offense should Jonathan Taylor sit or underperform.
- And if getting a possible franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud wasn’t enough as the second overall pick in the draft, the Texans traded up to get Alabama chaos-maker, Will Anderson Jr., as their brand-new edge rusher at the No. 3 overall spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- 2022 Record (9-8)
- Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Big things are expected of the Jaguars after winning the division for the first time in forever. But let’s not forget that they reside in a division devoid of any real competition and, by default, get the advantage of playing six games against those weak-kneed rivals. Despite that luxury, the Jags split the season series with the lowly Colts and Texans while sweeping the Titans for a 4-2 divisional mark in 2022.
This year even bigger things are expected, especially after mounting a historic comeback against the Chargers in the opening postseason round followed by a hard-fought loss in hostile territory to the eventual Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
Trevor Lawrence proved it was the system and the talent, or lack thereof, surrounding him that caused him to have a lackluster rookie season. Yet, when mentored by a new head coach in Doug Pederson, coupled with better protection, the results spoke for themselves. Trevor Lawrence went from 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions for 3,641 passing yards in his first year to a demonstrably better 2022 in which he tossed 25 touchdowns with only eight interceptions for 4,113 yards, completing 66.3 percent of his passes.
In the Trenches
Offensive lines are the most underestimated component as they toil in the trenches, in the shadows of the skill players who score points. This year we see that right tackle Jawaan Taylor took the money and ran to Kansas City but Jacksonville made the right move and replaced him with a first-round selection in Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. We should point out that blindside tackle Cam Robinson will be suspended for four games but they should be able to weather that temporary storm.
The Jaguars are a young team that got a world of experience last season by competing admirably in the playoffs and that will serve them well this season. Lawrence also has a bona fide elite receiver that he didn’t have last year in Calvin Ridley who was acquired from the Falcons in the offseason.
Ridley will join an already talented receiving corps in Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram. The defense will be this team’s Achilles heel as they lack a solid secondary and own a defensive line that is only marginally better. But that won’t be problematic enough to prevent them from winning the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans
- 2022 Record (7-10)
- Super Bowl Odds: +8000
Ho-hum, what have they done? The question being asked is what have the Titans done to improve from last year’s 7-10 season? The answer – not much. Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, and most of the mediocre gang will return to run it back for 2023.
Am I inferring Derrick Henry is average? No, but he is closing in on 30 and no team wanted to take his $16 million cap hit on their books for a position that isn’t being valued as highly as it once was. Ryan Tannehill won’t be better at age 35 and his backups are young and raw so don’t expect them to conjure the magic that isn’t there to begin with nor will it manifest with any of the skill-position rookies selected this year.
The One Thing
One thing the Titans did do is take one of the best available tackles in the draft with their No. 11 overall pick in choosing Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski. He is expected to start immediately and should be an improvement in protection for Tannehill.
As for skill positions, the Titans essentially traded the immaculate A.J. Brown for a younger and cheaper version named Treylon Burks whom they selected in the first round of last year’s draft. Burks flashed glimpses of being a No. 1 receiver but with Robert Woods gone, he’s going to have to do more than that.
Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker give Tennessee an outstanding duo at safety while the return of Harold Landry will give their pass rush a significant boost. Overall, the Titans’ defense will not be a liability but will not be of the stellar variety either. Nevertheless, it will be better than the offense which will rely on the ground-and-pound provided by steamroller Derrick Henry.
Indianapolis Colts
- 2022 Record (4-12-1)
- Super Bowl Odds: +12,500
The Colts have the luxury of a quasi-starting quarterback in Gardner Minshew who can ably fill the void until the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 draft, Anthony Richardson, is ready for prime time. Hopefully, Indianapolis doesn’t succumb to temptation and toss the rookie out there in a baptism-by-fire that has caused so many young quarterbacks to crash and burn. The Colts are going nowhere this year so it would be a much smarter strategy to let the kid hold a clipboard and learn as much as possible before giving him reps towards the end of the year.
The biggest question is, will Jonathan Taylor suit up after his prolonged “rehab” for an injured ankle? Taylor is in the midst of a contract dispute with the Colts and is looking to get traded. However, sitting out an entire year when the lifespan of a running back is so short makes that a risky proposition on his part, especially after a down year in which his ankle injury lingered.
Disagreement
If Taylor sits, this offense is in trouble despite having an upper-echelon offensive line. The lone playmaker will be Michael Pittman Jr. but he will be doubled constantly as the other options, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs, are forgettable.
Defensively, the Colts will miss Stephon Gilmore in their secondary but will welcome the return of Pro Bowl linebacker Shaq Leonard. Gilmore was dealt to the Cowboys while Leonard was on the shelf for much of last year with a nerve issue in his back.
Overall, Indianapolis boasts a dynamite defensive line if all the moving parts come together which will keep them competitive despite what will be a lackluster offense should Jonathan Taylor sit or underperform.
Houston Texans
- 2022 Record (3-13)
- Super Bowl Odds: +15,000
There’s really nowhere to go but up for the Houston Texans and it would be shocking if they remained as the laughingstock of the league with the selection of Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud as the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
And although I am normally averse to starting young quarterbacks in their rookie season, Stroud has the luxury of what should be an excellent offensive line, anchored by 3x Pro Bowler and blindside protector, Laremy Tunsil. Houston also wheeled a deal for 2x Super Bowl champion guard, Shaq Mason.
And if getting a possible franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud wasn’t enough, the Texans traded up to get Alabama chaos-maker, Will Anderson Jr., as their brand-new edge rusher at the No. 3 overall spot. That’s a massive haul for the Texans and could change the entire complexion of the franchise.
Receiver Help
However, the receiving corps is far from elite with the fading veteran Robert Woods coupled with a pair of pedestrian-at-best receivers in Nico Collins and Noah Brown. Yet, the Texans did sign former Cowboys standout tight end, Dalton Schultz, who will be critical in bailing out Stroud when he’s looking for a big body target.
Despite the addition of Will Anderson this is still a middling defense and will require more production and quality performances from the youngsters they have drafted recently, namely Derek Stingley Jr. who was selected as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2022 draft, one pick ahead of the elite Sauce Gardner.
NFL Pick: 2023 AFC South – Jacksonville Jaguars -154 at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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