NFL Pick: 2023 Dallas Cowboys Over 10 Wins (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
When seemingly every other NFC team has had its day in the sun in the last 30 years, why not the Dallas Cowboys in 2023? The team has not even been to an NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season. The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons have been that far 4 times each in that time.
Dallas has the best scoring differential in the NFC and the 2nd best in the NFL over the last 2 seasons (+297), yet this team has turned back-to-back 12-win seasons into playoff losses to the 49ers.
The NFL odds still have the Cowboys behind the Eagles and 49ers in the NFC, but you can find Dallas with the 6th-best odds to win the Super Bowl at top offshore sportsbooks (+1200).
Given no team has won the NFC East in back-to-back years since 2004, the Cowboys could be in store for reclaiming the division over Philadelphia. At the very least, an Over/Under of 10 wins is a solid value for a team poised to do great things after notching a playoff win for the first time since 2018 last year.
Changes That Matter
The Cowboys have a new offensive coordinator, who will surely draw headlines with every little move he makes. But is it a good change? Also, the defense should still be elite.
Brian Schottenheimer: Lucky No. 13?
After 4 seasons on the job, Kellen Moore is out as offensive coordinator in Dallas. Replacing him will be Brian Schottenheimer, who has spent 12 seasons as an offensive coordinator for the Jets (2006-11), Rams (2012-14), and Seahawks (2018-20). He was also a consultant for the Cowboys last season, so he should be familiar with this offense.
There is a fear that Schottenheimer will be bad for Prescott and make this more of a running team. It is true that in 12 years as a coordinator, Schottenheimer had 1 season where his offense was in the top half in pass attempts, and they never finished higher than 12th in net yards per pass attempt.
However, this team should still take the approach of a Mike McCarthy-coached team, and we know McCarthy is very much in favor of passing the ball at a high rate.
This is also arguably the most talented passing offense Schottenheimer has ever coached. It is harder to call pass plays when you have Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford at quarterback, but Schottenheimer did once coordinate Sanchez through multiple road playoff wins in the 2009-10 seasons.
Prescott is enough of a veteran who should be able to handle any coaching change like this without skipping a beat. Featuring Pollard more may not be the worst thing in the world either, because he is an effective back on a per-play basis, but the Cowboys are not going to suddenly struggle passing for 200 yards. In fact, there are reasons to think the offense will be better this year.
Arguments for Offensive Improvement
Working in Schottenheimer’s favor should be several factors that could produce a better offense in Dallas, or at least one that does not fall off from past success.
- Thanks to a crushing number of tipped and deflected interceptions, Prescott’s interception rate (3.8%) was more than double his career rate (1.7%) before 2022. This should regress to the mean, leading to fewer picks being thrown.
- Wide receiver Brandin Cooks provides a credible deep threat and a solid No. 2 option to CeeDee Lamb.
- Wide receiver Michael Gallup looked a bit slow in his return from injury last year, so being 2 years removed from the injury, he could be closer to the player he was before.
- Starting the season with Tony Pollard instead of going to him more halfway through the season could make the running game more efficient after the team cut Ezekiel Elliott.
- Tyron Smith is back at left tackle after only playing in 4 games last season.
- Left guard Tyler Smith is no longer a rookie and should feel comfortable between Smith and center Tyler Biadasz.
The only downside is losing tight end Dalton Schultz to Houston because he had good chemistry with Prescott, but the Cowboys are ready to make Jake Ferguson and 2nd-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker a significant part of this offense. Schultz was reliable but he wasn’t Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski.
New Defenders
The Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the league, so not a lot of improvements were required. However, they made a few wise moves by bringing in veteran corner Stephon Gilmore and using a 1st-round pick on nose tackle Mazi Smith.
Gilmore can take on top assignments while leaving Trevon Diggs with some freedom to go for interceptions and take chances. Smith can help with the interior pressure on a defense that was already excellent at edge pressure with Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but he may come more in handy as a run-stopper in a division with the Eagles and Giants (Saquon Barkley).
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
With sportsbooks offering the Cowboys at over/under 10 wins, that is great value with a chance for a push to save your stake, but this team should win over 10 games for the 3rd year in a row barring any terrible injuries.
The Cowboys have generally owned the Giants and Commanders in Prescott’s career, and those teams still look flawed going into 2023. The Cowboys also have done well against the Eagles in the Jalen Hurts era, though it would be nice if we can see a pair of games between Prescott and Hurts this year. Each team beat the other’s backup quarterback last year, though props to Prescott for dropping 40 points on the Eagles.
There are tough games too with trips to Buffalo (Week 15) and San Francisco (Week 5), but the Cowboys need to embrace those games as playoff preparation to see where they stack up with the best in the game. Getting an early look at the 49ers could be very helpful after Dallas had to play the 49ers cold the last two postseasons.
The Cowboys also get the Jets at home in Week 2, so maybe Aaron Rodgers’ first road trip will not go too well. Then again, he is so comfortable playing in Dallas. But even if the Cowboys lost another to Rodgers, split with the Eagles (Week 9), and lost on the road to the Bills, 49ers, Chargers (Week 6), and Dolphins (Week 16), that would still be enough for an 11-6 record.
The regular season is generally not a problem for McCarthy-coached teams. The playoffs are a different story, but for over 10 wins, the Cowboys should be a good bet for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Dallas Cowboys Over 10 Wins (-130) at BetOnline
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2022 Recap: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
The Cowboys showed us a little bit of everything in 2022, but it still resulted in a 12-5 record with the most takeaways on defense. It also still ended up with a loss to Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers in the playoffs with the offense struggling to crack that tough defense.
But if you only watched Dallas in Weeks 1 (Tampa Bay), 18 (Washington), and the divisional round (San Francisco), you probably thought this team was pathetic. The offense was awful in those games, Dak Prescott left the opener injured, and the last games were reinforcement of the opinion this team will never win a championship under coach Mike McCarthy.
Nevertheless, if you caught the Cowboys in most other games, you saw a potential Super Bowl champion with an elite offense and an elite defense, a combo few in the NFL could match last year. The Cowboys had a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Micah Parsons, and Dan Quinn’s defense outdid itself by finding a way to lead the league in takeaways for the 2nd year in a row.
The offense was looking more explosive once Tony Pollard started getting the majority of touches over Ezekiel Elliott, a change that was long overdue. Once Prescott returned from his injury, the offense took off, including a franchise-record streak of 9 games scoring at least 27 points.
But the Cowboys did blow leads of 14 and 17 points to Green Bay and Jacksonville in disappointing road losses. The Cowboys also nearly blew a home game with Houston despite being a 17-point favorite.
Fortunately, Dallas did not falter in Tampa Bay in the wild-card round despite having to play on the road against an 8-9 team that beat Dallas 19-3 in the opener. But Prescott outplayed Tom Brady in his final game, and the Cowboys looked impressive in a 31-14 win.
But Dallas did not have answers for San Francisco’s defense again, and Pollard left that game injured. Prescott had 2 interceptions, continuing what was a major problem down the stretch with turnovers as he led the league in picks thrown despite missing 5 games. The 49ers won 19-12, ending another Dallas season.
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