In Week 3, the NFL’s top three favorites to win Super Bowl 57 all lost. The Bills and Chiefs were both sloppy in execution, especially on special teams and at the end of halves, on the road and blew fourth-quarter leads to the Dolphins and Colts. The Buccaneers, without their top three wide receivers, lost an odd 14-12 game at home to Green Bay despite the Packers not scoring on their final nine drives.
After a weird Sunday, it is a good time to check in on the updated NFL odds for the teams most likely to win Super Bowl 57 according to many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Are the Bills still a deserving favorite? Are the Eagles going to be the new team to beat in the NFC? Is there a true dark horse lurking? We’ll answer these and more.
Still the Favorites: Buffalo Bills (+400)
The Bills have been the Super Bowl favorites all offseason (+600 at Bovada –visit our Bovada Review– before Week 1), and they were already the talk of the league after two weeks with dominant wins over the Rams and Titans in prime time. Josh Allen was looking like the MVP favorite and Von Miller was the latest piece to a ferocious defense.
But after some injuries in the secondary and some baffling mistakes down in Miami’s heat, the Bills are not in first place in the AFC East right now. They also face a very competitive Baltimore team on the road this week, which could have major implications on everything from this year’s MVP winner to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs that should be Buffalo’s goal. The Bills are 3-0 at home in the playoffs in the Allen era compared to 0-3 on the road.
This is suddenly a huge point in the season for Buffalo with games against the Ravens and Chiefs in the next few weeks. We need to see this team overcome some adversity, because after another close loss on Sunday in Miami, the Bills have lost their last 12 games when trailing in the fourth quarter. They seem to have a front-runner complex where they only can win by big margins and lose all the close games.
It would be a shame if this team did not get to a Super Bowl this year because the Bills have been doing some historic stuff since Allen’s breakout year in 2020:
- Buffalo’s last 20 wins in the regular season have all been by at least 10 points, tying the 1941-42 Chicago Bears for the NFL record.
- Between the end of last season and on opening night against the Rams, the Bills did not punt four times in a six-game span, something no team in NFL history had done before.
- The 2020 Bills were the second team in NFL history to have at least 20 first downs in all 16 regular-season games.
At some point this season, the Bills are going to have to win a close game if they are going to win the Super Bowl. The league is too competitive to avoid it, and no franchise should be more familiar with the way one play can determine if your team is a champion or not.
New NFC Favorite: Philadelphia Eagles (+800)
After Green Bay’s 14-12 win in Tampa Bay, the Eagles have moved up from +2000 in the preseason to +800 as the new Super Bowl favorite in the NFC. After allowing an opening-drive touchdown to Detroit in Week 1, the Eagles have not trailed since. They just sacked Carson Wentz nine times in another dominant win with Jalen Hurts entering the MVP race with a dazzling performance. A.J. Brown has been an excellent addition to the offense.
Beating up on the Lions, Kirk Cousins on a Monday night, and making Wentz their human pinata is not going to sway many skeptics, but this team looks legitimately great so far. The schedule is also going to be a huge reason to like the Eagles as a potential No. 1 seed but also the reason to not trust them come January.
The best AFC team the Eagles play this regular season may be this Sunday against the upstart Jaguars if you can believe it. They won’t play the Chiefs or Bills or Ravens or Dolphins until potentially the Super Bowl. They also won’t play the Tampa Bay team that swept them out of the playoffs last season.
The game in the NFC to circle is Week 12: Packers at Eagles in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football right after Thanksgiving. For all we know, that could determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC this year.
If you believe in Hurts and the Eagles, you may not get a better price than +800 the rest of the year given the schedule.
Who Is the AFC’s No. 2 Team?
We look at the three-way race between the Kansas City Chiefs (+750), Baltimore Ravens (+1800), and Miami Dolphins (+1800) as the best challenger to Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
The Chiefs still have the second-best Super Bowl odds in the NFL, and they will host the Bills in Week 6 in what should be a pivotal matchup for home-field advantage. They also still have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, easily the biggest edge over their AFC West rivals in a division race that is once again looking one-sided.
The Chargers are getting injured and disappointing again, the Raiders are flopping as the only 0-3 team, and the Broncos may be 2-1 but they have looked horrible to start this season with Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett.
So much for that all-time great division race. But even if the Chiefs become the third team in NFL history to win their division at least seven years in a row, does this team still have that special edge without Tyreek Hill to trust them in January over the likes of the Bills and Ravens? They were 0-2 against those teams last regular season, and they were 13 seconds away from it being 0-3.
We’ll get a good sense soon of how ready the Chiefs are for big games this year as they play Tampa Bay in Week 4, Buffalo in Week 6, and later have games with the 49ers, Rams, and Bengals.
Miami Dolphins (+1800)
The Dolphins have gone from +4000 in the preseason to +1800 to win the Super Bowl, but there are valid reasons for why the market and analysts still do not believe the team is a legit contender this season, even if Miami is 11-1 in its last 12 games.
You might be surprised to see the 3-0 Dolphins are an underdog on Thursday night against the 1-2 Bengals, but that happens often enough in the NFL. Four 3-0 teams were underdogs last season, and all but one (Arizona) lost in Week 4.
Miami is not your ordinary 3-0 team. In the last two weeks, the Dolphins became the 10th team in NFL history to win a game after trailing by at least 21 points in the fourth quarter, and the 13th team since 1970 to win a game after being outgained by 275 yards.
Does that sound like a sustainable strategy to anyone? Miami had the quarter of the season in Baltimore with four touchdowns, but it is hard to say the offense has been that explosive in the other 11 quarters. This team would be very hard to trust in a rematch with either the Bills or Ravens.
Baltimore Ravens (+1800)
How high would the Ravens be if not for that one terrible quarter against Miami? Lamar Jackson is being asked to carry the team more than he ever has with the running game and defense not up to par yet, and he is playing the best ball of his career right now. Jackson leads the NFL with 10 touchdown passes and a 119.0 passer rating, the kind of start you’d expect in an MVP season.
If the Ravens can beat Buffalo this week, that should put Jackson in the lead for MVP at the quarter-season mark. It also would give the Ravens an argument as the team to beat, not to mention more confidence that they can win a big game against a contender after losing to the Bills in the 2020 playoffs in their last meeting.
There are certainly concerns to have with the defense allowing too many big plays, but special quarterback play can cover up a lot of holes. Jackson can put together the ultimate contract-year season if he tops it off with an MVP and Super Bowl, a combo of achievements no one has managed in the same season since Kurt Warner in 1999 with the St. Louis Rams.
Jackson was three years old when Warner pulled that feat off.
No Contention for Old Men: Green Bay Packers (+900) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000)
Last Sunday’s 14-12 battle between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, the two oldest quarterbacks in the NFL, would be a weird way for them to meet one last time. Maybe we’ll see it again in the playoffs because chances are both teams are still going to have their say in January of who is going to the Super Bowl from the NFC side.
But for this game, it is hard to feel overly confident about the Packers, who did not score after taking an early 14-3 lead.
The Buccaneers are going to get reinforcements soon with Mike Evans returning from his suspension, Julio Jones almost played as a game-time decision, and Chris Godwin’s hamstring should heal soon. Brady is going to have more weapons than Rodgers, who is going to have to get better with the rookies and Allen Lazard as they try moving on without Davante Adams.
But both the Buccaneers and Packers look weaker this year than the teams we watched in 2020 and 2021. It doesn’t seem like that will change either unless Brady stumbles on a new Lazarus Pit or Rodgers finds a new psychedelic drug that brings him back to MVP form.
Last Year’s Participants: Los Angeles Rams (+1500) – Cincinnati Bengals (+3000)
The Rams and Bengals were the first No. 4 seeds to match up in a Super Bowl last year, so both getting back there always felt like a pipe dream. Both also faceplanted in Week 1, with the Bills blowing out the Rams and the Bengals failing in epic fashion against Pittsburgh.
But the Rams have picked it up on offense and face a big test in San Francisco on Monday. They may still be the best team in that division with the best coach (Sean McVay) and quarterback (Matthew Stafford), so that is a big advantage if they are to repeat.
The Bengals finally got their first win over the Jets, but they have a quick turnaround against the 3-0 Dolphins on Thursday night. If they can win that game, then perceptions really change again, but a loss and 1-3 start with Baltimore (and Cleveland) in the division, and things are going to look dire again. The improved offensive line does in fact not look improved for Joe Burrow.
Conclusion: Best Picks and Dark Horse?
Finally, we have our dark horse emerging, and no, it’s not the Indianapolis Colts (+3500) after they pulled off their usual voodoo against the Chiefs. That offense still looks lost, and the offensive line is suddenly a big problem again.
The pick is also not the Dallas Cowboys (+3000), even if Cooper Rush is the second quarterback in NFL history to lead a game-winning drive in each of his first three starts. Dak Prescott and Michael Gallup will be coming back, but the Eagles still look like the more complete team this year.
Some people might pick the Cleveland Browns (+5000) with the prospects of Deshaun Watson returning in December, but let’s at least wait until Cleveland faces a solid quarterback and team first. Their wins are against the Panthers and Steelers, and they blew a game to the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6000)
The best dark horse pick right now is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who could be the 2021 Bengals of this season but arguably more surprising. Trevor Lawrence is slinging it despite the much-criticized moves the team made at receiver in the offseason. He is making it work along with his Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson.
The Jaguars shut out the Colts 24-0 and backed it up with a 38-10 win in Los Angeles despite Justin Herbert playing the full game for the Chargers.
The Jaguars are second in the league with a plus-46 scoring differential and will get a great test in Philadelphia this Sunday. Who knows, it could even be a Super Bowl preview if we are in store for a new era in the NFL.
Most Logical NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills to win Super Bowl 57 (+400) at Bovada
Best Value NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens to win Super Bowl 57 (+1800) at Bovada
Dark Horse NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win Super Bowl 57 (+6000) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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