NFL Pick: 2023 Philadelphia Eagles Over 11½ Wins (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Philadelphia Eagles were the best team in the NFC last season, and the top-rated offshore sportsbooks are suggesting that could be the case in 2023 as well. Philadelphia has the best odds to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC, and only the Chiefs have higher Super Bowl odds to win it all.
The Eagles are probably tired of finishing behind Kansas City by now. Jalen Hurts lost out on the MVP trophy to Patrick Mahomes, and the Super Bowl MVP also went to Mahomes instead of Hurts, who played well outside of that fumble that was returned for a touchdown.
But the Eagles were a tough team to beat last year, and they look to bring back most of their key players for another run this year as they attempt to become the first team to repeat as NFC East champions since Philadelphia did it in 2001-04.
However, the Eagles have loftier goals in mind like finishing in the playoffs to win a Super Bowl after coming so close last year.
The Changes That Matter
The Eagles were able to maintain most of their roster. There will be a new leading rusher after Miles Sanders left for Carolina, though the committee of backs will welcome D’Andre Swift from Detroit and they should be fine here.
A talented roster should help the transition to new offensive and defensive coordinators after Shane Steichen (Colts) and Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) both took head coaching jobs this year. But the Eagles had an impressive draft as well.
New Coordinators
The Eagles will miss Shane Steichen after he helped Hurts develop into an MVP candidate the last 2 years. But the Eagles are promoting Brian Johnson, who has served as quarterbacks coach under Nick Sirianni the last 2 years. He knows the players and the offense will be familiar to everyone. We know the Eagles will still run their deadly version of the quarterback sneak that is unstoppable in short yardage.
Defensive End
On defense, this could be an upgrade as Gannon’s scheme was shredded by just about any top quarterback the Eagles faced since 2021. The new coordinator is Sean Desai, who joins the team from Seattle where he helped Pete Carroll last year. He also has been a defensive coordinator with the Bears under Matt Nagy.
Desai inherits one of the best defenses in the league, though one can argue there is still room for improvement after only ranking No. 8 in scoring despite the 70 sacks. The Eagles won’t get 70 sacks again, but they have a pass rush that will still be deadly with a variety of players contributing.
Draft Haul
The Eagles could end up looking back on the 2023 draft as a triumph, and it could just be thanks to teams too afraid to take someone many analysts felt was the best defender in the draft.
But Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter slid for off-field concerns about his past and character. The Eagles felt comfortable enough with their locker room and team chemistry that they could make this work, so when he was still available at No. 9, they had to pull the trigger and add him to this line that lost Javon Hargrave to the rival San Francisco 49ers.
Carter has the talent to be an absolute beast in this defense, and he will get to learn from Fletcher Cox this year. The Eagles still have their familiar names up front with Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham.
More Goodies
But the Eagles were not done after Carter in the first round. They used their other high pick on Nolan Smith, another edge rusher who can join the rotation and learn behind Haason Reddick, who was an incredible signing for the team last year.
Carter and Smith may not play a ton as rookies because of the talent the Eagles have elsewhere, but they are going to be part of the rotation to add to this team’s impressive pass rush.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
On paper, the Eagles still look like the best team in the NFC. San Francisco is so intriguing, but how will Brock Purdy respond after the elbow surgery and defenses adjusting to his season of tape? It would not be crazy to think he struggles more this year without the elements of mystery and surprise to his game.
The other main contender are the Dallas Cowboys, and these teams split their meetings last year with the backup quarterback taking the loss in each game. It would be great if we can get 2 games between Hurts and Prescott this year to really settle this thing.
The Eagles should play in some of the highest-profile games this season, and for some reason, the schedule makers seem to have lined them up one after another after the Week 10 bye. Keep in mind the Eagles play the Cowboys in Philadelphia before that bye. But after it, the Eagles will play the Chiefs on the road in a Super Bowl rematch, the Bills, the 49ers in an NFC title game rematch, and the big trip to Dallas in Week 14.
That could be hands down the toughest 5-game stretch any team has this regular season. But that also could be where the majority of the Eagles’ losses come from, because it is hard to see them dropping games elsewhere.
Over or Under?
Maybe the Jets in Week 6, on the road, with Aaron Rodgers is a tough one for Hurts and company to score. But after that absurdly tough stretch in Weeks 9-14, the Eagles finish with the Seahawks, Cardinals, and both Giants games. That sounds like a good way to enter the playoffs with a winning streak.
The NFC is sketchy in the way it seems like a new, hot team emerges for one year and fades the next. But these Eagles feel different with something to build on with Sirianni, Hurts, Brown, one of the better offensive lines, that pass rush, and a good secondary.
Liking the Eagles to end the drought and repeat as NFC East champs, let’s also go with over 11.5 wins. It won’t be another 14-3 season, but 12-5 is well within reach for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Philadelphia Eagles Over 11½ Wins (+110) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The Eagles”: Almost Famous
The 2022 Philadelphia Eagles had a very memorable season. It could have been the best year the team ever had in the Super Bowl era, but there was one bad habit they picked up early on that came back to bite them in the big game.
Philadelphia started 8-0 in a historic fashion where the team scored a record number of points in the 2nd quarter, which led to a lot of runaway games after halftime. The Eagles were just the third team since the merger to not trail after halftime in any of their first 8 games.
But it was bizarre in the way the Eagles would dominate one quarter (2nd) so much and have mediocre results in the others. This might have hurt earlier if the team played a tougher schedule, but they played several of the teams that started 2-6 that were struggling before a hot finish to get to 9-8. This is why the Eagles had such a great record over winning teams, but it was more about the timing of when they faced the Lions, Steelers, and Jaguars.
A Great Move
But it was clear in Week 1 that trading for wide receiver A.J. Brown was a great move. He immediately fit in, and Jalen Hurts was able to ascend to a new level of play in his 3rd season. Including playoffs, Hurts became the first quarterback ever to run with the ball 200 times in a season. But he improved as a passer and was a legitimate MVP candidate and may have even won the award if not for an injury in Week 15 to his shoulder.
At that point, the Eagles were 13-1 with their only loss to Washington on a night where the Commanders were lights out on 3rd down and the Eagles had 4 uncharacteristic turnovers. The referees even missed an obvious facemask call on one of the fumbles.
But without Hurts, the Eagles lost back-to-back games against the Cowboys and Saints. Turnovers and 3rd downs were again the issues. The Cowboys converted a 3rd-and-30 in the fourth quarter of their 40-34 win, and the Eagles had another 4-turnover game. While Gardner Minshew did well in that game starting for Hurts, he struggled against the Saints and threw a back-breaking pick-six in the fourth quarter of a 20-10 loss.
Fortunately, Hurts returned in time for Week 18 and the Eagles clinched the No. 1 seed at 14-3 after beating a Giants team that was playing mostly backups the whole game.
Home-Field Advantage
The Eagles had home-field advantage and got a very favorable draw against the Giants for a 3rd time. New York never had any answers for the Eagles in 2023, and the 3-game sweep was complete with the Eagles winning in dominant fashion in a 38-7 game.
This set up what could have been a classic NFC Championship Game against the 49ers, who had won 12 games in a row and were on a roll with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. But the game became a dud quickly after Haason Reddick’s stirp-sack on Purdy injured his elbow on the opening defensive drive. Backup Josh Johnson left with a concussion, so the 49ers were left without a quarterback who could throw in the 31-7 defeat.
The Eagles were up 69-14 in the playoffs despite the passing game not doing a lot in either game. We knew that would change against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. But despite a pass rush that had 70 sacks in the regular season, the Eagles really struggled to get after Patrick Mahomes in the big game. The field conditions were not ideal, but both teams played on that surface.
Biggest Mistake
The Eagles were leading 14-7 in the 2nd quarter when Hurts made his biggest mistake and fumbled for a game-tying touchdown. But the Eagles still led 24-14 at halftime and were in good shape. Despite the blunder, Philadelphia won the 2nd quarter 17-7, which is what the team did so well last year.
Unfortunately, the rest of the game played out like other Philadelphia games. This time the opponent was too good to overcome, and the Chiefs rallied back with 38 points to win the game on a late field goal following a questionable 3rd-down penalty call on the Eagles that helped run down much of the clock. Philadelphia’s 35 points were the most ever for a Super Bowl loser.
Including the playoffs, the Eagles were +126 in the 2nd quarter and +4 in the other quarters combined.
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