NFL Pick: 2023 San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (-150) at BetOnline
The San Francisco 49ers have come up just short of the Super Bowl, losing in the NFC Championship Game on the road the last two years. But perhaps a faster start in 2023 could be the key to a No. 1 seed and making sure the path to the Super Bowl goes through San Francisco.
Keeping a quarterback healthy would also help as the 49ers were down to literally no one with a working arm last year. But as one of the most talented teams in the league, expectations are high again with the top-rated offshore sportsbooks giving the 49ers an over/under of 10.5 wins, one shy of the highest total this year.
Is Brock Purdy the real deal? Can the defense avoid injuries? These are some of the top questions facing the 49ers this year, but it is looking like another 3-way battle in the NFC between the 49ers and the NFC East’s top team (Eagles or Cowboys).
The Changes That Matter
Is Purdy going to be the same, or was it all a flash in the pan? The defense also will see a few wrinkles and changes.
The Garoppolo Safety Blanket Is Gone
Love him or envy him, Jimmy Garoppolo was good for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. But he is off to the Raiders, so the 49ers cannot rely on that veteran experience should their starters get hurt or disappoint this year.
Who is the starter? The 49ers believe Brock Purdy is fully recovered from elbow surgery and will be the starter. Veteran addition Sam Darnold is in the mix now, and if anyone can get a breakout performance out of him, it might be Shanahan and these weapons. Then there is Trey Lance, who is reportedly falling to the No. 3 job despite the king’s ransom the 49ers moved in the draft to take him in 2021. That is a real disappointment, but the 49ers need to do what is best for the team, and that appears to be Purdy.
Great Indicator
Rookie success is a great indicator for career success at quarterback, but there have been some exceptions. Injury is usually the cause too, and that is a bad sign for Purdy when you think of cases like Robert Griffin III or Greg Cook.
But if we can assume the arm strength will be adequate enough, Purdy is an interesting case study. He looked solid even if the weapons like Kittle, McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk did a lot of the heavy lifting behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Plus, Garoppolo never really put together a run like Purdy did last year. Lance sure has not had similar success in his limited opportunities. Maybe Purdy, who had his team up 35-0 on Tom Brady in his first start last year, is that new Brady-like figure. A late draft pick who falls into a great situation and shocks the league with heady and timely play.
While we still have a lot to learn about Purdy, his experience and the situation he is in puts him ahead of any other “unknown” quarterback in 2023, including the likes of Sam Howell (Commanders), Jordan Love (Packers), Kenny Pickett (Steelers), any of the rookies, and even someone like Justin Fields (Bears).
Some Defensive Changes
When you have success like the 49ers, people want to hire from your coaching staff. Shanahan lost defensive coordinator Robert Saleh to the Jets in 2021, and he was able to immediately replace him with DeMeco Ryans, who helped the defense to even greater heights the last two years. Now Ryans is the coach of the Texans, leaving the spot open again.
Veteran defensive coach Steve Wilks comes over from his stint as interim coach of the Panthers to be the new defensive coordinator. He has not had a ton of success in his career, but he has probably never had a better group of talent than he will have this year.
Staying Healthy
As long as these players remain healthy, the transition to a new DC should be just fine. The talent is what matters, and that is why the 49ers had a bad year in 2020 coming off a Super Bowl loss, because they suffered a terrible number of injuries that season.
But this defense still has Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, and Talanoa Hufanga. Safety Jimmie Ward is gone after 9 years, but the 49ers will be fine with Hufanga and Tashaun Gipson at safety.
The defense also acquired defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who had a career-high 11 sacks for the Eagles last year. This can give the line a more dominant piece in the middle so that Bosa can reap the benefits on the edge.
The 49ers also picked up Clelin Ferrell, who was the No. 4 pick in the 2019 draft by the Raiders. He never lived up to that hype in 4 seasons with the Raiders, but maybe a better environment for defense in San Francico can spark something there with offenses paying more attention to Bosa, Hargrave, and Armstead.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
After slow starts the last two years, the 49ers finished 10-7 and 13-4. Their line of 10.5 wins is fair, but is it an easy call either way?
The division still looks to be well in San Francisco’s favor as the chances of Seattle improving on a Geno Smith breakout year do not look that great. The Seahawks also could not score or handle the 49ers in 3 matchups last year. The Rams are literally down to Aaron Donald and 10 guys on defense, then Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are trying their hardest to carry the offense. It’s a dire situation. Arizona is projected to be the worst team in the NFL.
The 49ers could get 5 or 6 wins from the division alone. They also get to play a lot of playoff contenders at home, including the Giants (Week 3), Cowboys (Week 5), Bengals (Week 8), and Ravens (Week 16). There is a return to Philadelphia in Week 13, but that is more for No. 1 seed purposes than anything else.
Over or Under?
Barring a total collapse at quarterback, the position Shanahan can help the most, or another awful run of injuries, this team is going to win a lot of games in 2023. Take the over 10.5 wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (-150) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The 49ers”: An Incredible Run Cut Short
After losing to the Bears in a monsoon in Week 1, things were not looking great for the 2022 49ers when new quarterback Trey Lance suffered a season-ending injury in Week 2. At the time, Kyle Shanahan was just 8-29 when his starting quarterback was not named Jimmy Garoppolo.
Fortunately, Garoppolo was there to take over the starting job again, but much like in 2021, the team got off to a slow start. After the No. 1 defense allowed 28 points to Atlanta and 44 points to the Chiefs in back-to-back losses, the 49ers were 3-4.
But some mastery of the offensive line of the Rams led to a sweep and 4-4 record heading into a much-needed bye. It was anyone’s division to win with the Rams falling off, and the 49ers made a huge trade with Carolina to acquire running back Christian McCaffrey, a perfect weapon for Shanahan’s offense.
Back On Track
With the defense back on track behind Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, the offense also started to pick up its game. Then in Week 13, Garoppolo broke his ankle, putting unknown rookie Brock Purdy, the last pick in the draft, into action. Little did anyone know Mr. Irrelevant would go undefeated the rest of the way until he was injured in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.
Starting from the Miami game, Purdy would throw multiple touchdown passes in 7 straight games. He only threw 3 interceptions along the way, and his completion percentage and yards per attempt were in line with the best Garoppolo ever did in San Francisco.
But the playoffs would be the challenge for a rookie, and that is where Garoppolo’s numbers have shrunk dramatically. But in pulling off a 3-game sweep of Seattle, Purdy passed for 332 yards, 3 touchdowns, and he was just a Brandon Aiyuk catch away from a 4th scoring toss. We had not seen a rookie quarterback throw for numbers like that in a playoff game since Sammy Baugh in 1937.
Flexing
A week later against Dallas in the divisional round, the 49ers flexed their defensive muscles to eliminate the Cowboys for the 2nd postseason in a row. George Kittle, who showed a great connection with Purdy, came up big in the fourth quarter in the 19-12 win.
But in the much-anticipated NFC title game in Philadelphia, Purdy injured his elbow on a strip sack just 6 snaps into the game. With Garoppolo still a week or two away from action, this put Josh Johnson in the game, but he too would suffer a concussion, ending his day. This meant the 49ers had to put Purdy back in the game as a decoy since he could not throw with the elbow injury. The 49ers lost 31-7 in a very disappointing game.
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