Preseason football is a different animal and should be treated as such. Regardless of how proficient a handicapper claims to be at betting on the NFL preseason, there are always plenty of unknowns, including the players themselves.
Many of the athletes you see lining up during the exhibition slate will be watching the NFL on television, just like you and me, when the games really count. Therefore, these games are simply a severely limited dress rehearsal for the starters but a life-or-death audition for the rookies and backups.
So, now that we understand that we can only guess how long the starters will play, or how good the backups on each team actually are, let’s talk about three of the most important things to know before betting on Week 1 of the preseason.
Key Facts
- Since 2014, the Ravens are 26-5 ATS and 28-3 straight up over their last 31 preseason games!
- We should also note that Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is a stunning 14-1 straight up and 11-4 ATS in Week 1 of the preseason as head coach.
- Some coaches believe that winning Week 1 of the preseason sets the tone for the rest of the season while others believe it is a glorified tryout and the scoreboard simply doesn’t matter. It’s important to know which coaches are which and bet accordingly.
- Baltimore has won their last 14 preseason games by an average of 14 points and has seven straight outright wins as an underdog in the preseason.
- Make sure you have accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can get as much value as possible.
1. Head Coach Matters
The one member of the team who can change the dynamic of a preseason game is the head coach. Some coaches believe that winning Week 1 of the preseason sets the tone for the rest of the season while others believe it is a glorified tryout and the scoreboard simply doesn’t matter. It’s important to know which coaches are which and bet accordingly.
With that in mind, let’s reveal the best and worst ATS records of the current head coaches in the NFL. This is an excellent resource to use when determining which teams to bet on in the preseason and can give your bankroll a boost heading into the regular season.
Some of the best preseason ATS coaching records are as follows:
- Bill Belichick (Patriots): 32-24-4
- Sean McDermott (Bills): 12-5-1
- John Harbaugh (Ravens): 38-16-1
- Matt Eberflus (Bears): 3-0
- Frank Reich (Panthers): 8-4
- Pete Carroll (Seahawks): 26-19-1
Some of the worst preseason ATS coaching records are as follows:
- Doug Pederson (Jaguars): 8-12
- Brian Daboll (Giants): 0-3
- Nick Sirianni (Eagles): 1-4-1
- Dan Campbell (Lions): 1-4-1
- Matt LaFleur (Packers): 3-7
- Kevin O’Connell (Vikings): 0-3
- Dennis Allen (Saints): 5-10
2. Ravens Rule Preseason
The Baltimore Ravens, under current head coach John Harbaugh, have been preternatural in the preseason. Since 2014, the Ravens are 26-5 ATS and 28-3 straight up over their last 31 preseason games!
We should also note that Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is a stunning 14-1 straight up and 11-4 ATS in Week 1 of the preseason as head coach. Harbaugh and the Ravens own the preseason, and if you want even more evidence then consider Baltimore has won their last 14 preseason games by an average of 14 points and have seven straight outright wins as an underdog in the preseason.
Before you bet the rent on the Ravens at home against the Eagles on Saturday, August 12 – 07:00 PM, understand that even a freight train stops and so too do winning streaks.
You might notice that the oddsmakers opened that game at Baltimore -3 but that number has drifted north to -3 ½ which is not insignificant considering 3 is the magic number and many of these preseason contests are won by narrow margins.
In other words, be cautious, but if you are betting on the Ravens then know that as of this writing, Heritage Sports will only charge you -105 instead of the standard -110 vig at some other top offshore sportsbooks.
3. Value Shopping
There is at least one parallel between the exhibition and regular season in terms of betting and that is to go shopping for the best lines. A half point can mean the difference between winning or pushing while a full point can make or break your bankroll.
Make sure you have accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can get as much value as possible. If we peruse BMR’s NFL odds page, we can see what the best offshore shops in the business are offering in Week 1 of the preseason.
There are a few preseason Week 1 games where you can get a half point here or there as of this writing, like the New York Giants -2 ½ at the Lions, the Packers +3 at the Bengals, the Bears -3 over the Titans, or the Chiefs +2 at the Saints.
Just make sure to keep checking the lines and lock in when you find one you like for your NFL picks. Good luck and play sharp!
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