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Who Will Replace Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
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Jason Lake
- July 22, 2024
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The news cycle must feed. Barely a week has gone by since Donald Trump was almost killed on the campaign trail, and the only thing people are talking about is the Democrats – thanks to Joe Biden, who officially stepped out of the 2024 U.S. presidential election race this past Sunday.
It took a while for the incumbent president to hear the call. But as more Democratic Party leaders, insiders and donors joined the effort to remove Biden from the race, with the apparent help of major media outlets like The New York Times, it became increasingly clear that a change had to be made at the top of the Democratic ticket.
So who’s name will replace Biden’s? It’s very likely to be that of Vice President Kamala Harris; as we go to press, Harris is a -800 favorite at BetOnline, one of our top sportsbooks, to secure the Democratic nomination, with the field priced at +450.
BetOnline also has individual odds on the board for other potential Biden successors like Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom, who were talked up as viable candidates to join Harris in a shortened “mini-primary” ahead of the Democratic National Convention on August 19-22. But then Newsom endorsed Harris on Sunday, and Whitmer followed suit Monday morning.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
2024 U.S. Democratic Nominee Odds
| Nominee | Bovada Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -6600 | 98.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Hillary Clinton | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Gavin Newsom | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +8000 | 1.23% |
| Joe Manchin | +25000 | 0.40% |
Will Kamala Harris Replace Joe Biden?
It’s not a slam-dunk just yet. Harris still needs the support of at least 1,976 (as per the most recent Democratic National Committee count) of the near 4,000 delegates expected for the convention – and she probably needs that support by August 7, when the Democrats are planning a “virtual roll call” to ensure they meet Ohio’s deadline for submitting the name of their nominee.
So far, so good. With Biden immediately endorsing Harris to replace him at the top of the ticket, and with potential successors like Whitmer and Newsom falling in line, Harris is already well on the way; it’s believed at press time that Harris has already secured the support of over 700 delegates, with more being added very quickly.
It might not take long for Harris to reach her goal. Louisiana Dem chairperson Randal Daines said Sunday night that his state’s 48 delegates (some counts say 53) had chosen Harris “by an overwhelming majority vote,” not long after Tennessee did the same with their 63 delegates (some counts say 70).
Other states that have already pledged all their delegates to Harris (counts provided by MSNBC):
- New Hampshire (25)
- North Carolina (116)
- South Carolina (55)
- Maryland (95)
The following states have also pledged at least some of their delegates:
- Florida (206 or more)
- Minnesota (48)
- New Jersey (5)
- Texas (13)
- Virginia (11)
You can also reportedly add Kentucky to the mix, and their entire slate of 54 delegates. Other states will likely have pledged their support by the time you read this; just now as we go to press, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi has officially endorsed Harris, after initially expressing her preference for an “open” nomination process.
With immense pride and limitless optimism for our country’s future, I endorse Vice President Kamala Harris for President of the United States. I have full confidence that she will lead us to victory in November.
— Nancy Pelosi (@TeamPelosi) July 22, 2024
-NP pic.twitter.com/vBwv602GuR
That leaves Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama as the biggest names who are still sitting on the fence. There is some fear within Democratic circles that Harris’s ascension will appear illegitimate without some sort of primary to contest the Dem nomination; Harris herself stressed upon receiving Biden’s endorsement that she will “earn and win” her spot.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also fretted last week during an Instagram livestream for Puerto Rico that the Republican Party would mount a legal challenge should anyone’s name but Biden’s lead the Democratic ticket – a challenge which Ocasio-Cortez notes is already underway. Will the Supreme Court end up deciding the results of the 2024 U.S. election? If so, Trump doesn’t have much to worry about this November, whether it’s Harris he’s up against or anyone else.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Odds
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
