2024 U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds: Trump Expands Lead over Biden Following Debate

Scott Kacsmar
June 28, 2024

The 1st debate of 2024 between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump happened Thursday night. After a poor performance by Biden, you have to wonder if we’ll even see another debate between these candidates before the presidential election in November.

Biden was the one who issued the debate challenge, and the choice of late June was unusually early to hold such a presidential debate. Now, you have to wonder if Democrats are glad it happened this early as there is already serious talk among pundits about the need to move to a backup plan for November.

That’s how bad Thursday night went for Biden. Trump did not even have a stellar debate, but Biden blew it and we’ll see what the fallout is from such a performance.

Let’s recap the debate and look at what it’s already done to the election odds, which Trump was already leading going into Thursday’s debate.

Updated U.S. Presidential Election Odds

It has only been a few hours since the debate ended, but we have already seen some significant line movement in the odds for November’s election at top-rated sportsbooks. The bad night for Biden is making an immediate impact.

Here is the shift in odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review):

Odds to win a week ago: Trump -165, Biden +155
Odds to win hours before the debate: Trump -150, Biden +130
Odds to win after the debate: Trump -185, Biden +350

These implied odds for Trump went from 60% to 63.6%, which may not be a huge change. But look at what happened to the Biden odds. He went from 43.5% implied odds to just 23.5%. That is the threat of the Democrats coming to Biden this weekend and asking him to step down for someone else.

Let’s look at the shift over at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review):

Odds to win a week ago: Trump -145, Biden +160
Odds to win hours before the debate: Trump -160, Biden +170
Odds to win after the debate: Trump -135, Biden +150

Again, a slight gain for Trump, but a really steep decline for Biden as he has just a 20% chance to win according to the updated odds at Bovada.

Meanwhile, the person to benefit the most here may be California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is up to +600 odds at both sportsbooks to win the election. He is +300 at BetOnline to be the Democratic nominee as Biden has fallen from -400 to -180 after this debate.

If you have yet to place a bet on Biden, that +400 might be tempting to lock in this weekend to hedge any Trump bets you may have already made.

Replacing a candidate at the end of June would be unprecedented in the modern era. Lyndon B. Johnson stepped away in 1968 at the end of March. Biden would blow that away by at least 3 months, but there is time for a change. We’ll just have to see what he says next and who possibly confronts him about stepping away. But it is panic time for the Democrats and understandably so.

Biden Loses Debate in the 1st Segment

If you were scoring this one at home, you could say Biden lost the debate in the 1st segment. He shuffled out to the debate stage, the opening topic was the economy, and Biden stumbled all over his final answer before giving the bizarre line “we finally beat Medicare.”

Right from the start, you could hear a weakness and uncertainty in Biden’s voice that continued to undermine everything he said the rest of the night. Some suggested within an hour of the debate that Biden had a cold that he was battling, though he somehow sounded better at the afterparty. Despite being just 3 years younger, Trump sounded considerably younger and stronger than Biden did on the evening.

Biden did a little better in the 2nd segment on abortion, but by the time the debate shifted to Israel and other issues, the candidates were deep into attacking each other with Biden getting noticeably irritated with Trump.

The quality of the debate only deteriorated from there.

Test Failed

Even if you could conclude that Biden’s answers had more substance than Trump’s, his delivery was beyond poor. It confirmed the worst nightmares about his age and inability to do the job for another 4 years as people were largely watching him for strength and confidence. Biden failed that test.

Biden’s closing statement was also poorly done and not strong at all. CNN, which hosted the debate, immediately jumped into a post-debate analysis where senior analyst John King said inside the Democratic party there was “a deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic” just minutes into the debate.

The discussion to replace Biden as the candidate is more intense than ever.

Month	Poll advantage 2020	Poll advantage 2024	Odds Advantage 2020	Odds Advantage 2024
January	Biden +6	Biden +4	Trump -113 (53.05%)	Trump +100 (50%)
February	Biden +5	Biden +5	Trump -175 (63.64%)	Trump -104 (51.2%)
March	Biden +6	Trump +3	Trump -113 (53.05%)	Trump -117 (54.8%)
April	Biden +7	Trump +3	Trump -129 (56.33%)	Trump -107 (51.69%)
May	Biden +7	Even	Trump -103 (50.74%)	Trump -140 (58.33%)
June	Biden +9	Trump +2	Biden -163 (61.98%)	Trump -140 (58.33%)
July	Biden +8	Not available	Biden -178 (64.03%)	Not available
August	Biden +8	Not available	Trump -116 (53.70%)	Not available
September	Biden +8	Not available	Biden -133 (57.08%)	Not available
October	Biden +8	Not available	Biden -194 (65.98%)	Not available

Trump Won the Debate

According to a CNN flash poll, Trump won the debate according to 67% of watchers, while only 33% believed Biden won. This would easily be the best margin for Trump in any of his presidential elections.

While Biden sounded terrible and weak, Trump sounded strong and confident. However, his statements will do little to draw in new voters.

While Trump was repeatedly asked about how he’d lower healthcare costs for children, he instead attacked Biden for not “firing” more people as president. Trump also repeatedly did not answer the question directly about how to help those battling drug addiction in America.

In perhaps the saddest part of the debate, both candidates engaged in banter about their golf game and what their handicap should be.

Presidential Election Odds Timeline: From Start of NY Trial to Conviction

A timeline of the 2024 US Presidential election odds movement from the start of the N.Y. Hush money trial through Trump’s conviction.

March 30: Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election stood at -115 when he was indicted in New York.
April 4: Trump was arraigned and pleaded not guilty. His odds dropped to -105 on April 5, while Biden remained even money at +100.
April 15: The Hush Money trial started. Trump’s odds fluctuated between -120 and -165 until his conviction on May 30.
Post-conviction: Trump’s odds dropped to -130 initially and have since shortened to -165, while Biden’s odds increased to +145.

Donald Trump remains the betting favorite at -135 to win the 2024 Presidential Election. There is a 57.45% chance that Trump will be elected the next U.S. President.

Republican Vice President Candidate Odds

One of the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s campaign far is who will be selected as his running mate for Vice President.

Candidate	BetOnline	Bovada
Tim Scott	+350	+375
Doug Burgum	+500	+500
Marco Rubio	+600	+850
J.D. Vance	+650	+600
Sarah Huckabee Sanders	+1000	+1000
Tulsi Gabbard	+1200	+1400

South Carolina Senator Tim Scott’s odds are available from +350 to +375.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is the next most likely candidate to be selected as Trump’s running mate at the odds of +500.

Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor movement in the Presidential and Vice President betting odds race ahead of the November election.

Best 2024 U.S. Election Betting Sites

These trusted political sportsbooks are your best bet for betting on the next U.S. President.

SPORTSBOOK	TRUST SCORE	ONLINE SINCE	Expert Review	BONUS
Bookmaker	9.5	1996	Read Review	$500 Cash Bonus
Heritage Sports	9.6	2001	Read Review	25% Free Play
BetAnySports	9.6	2002	Read Review	30% Cash Bonus
BetOnline	9.8	2001	Read Review	$250 Free Bet
Everygame	9.5	1996	Read Review	100% Cash Bonus
Bovada	9.9	2011	Read Review	$750 Cash Bonus