2024 US Presidential Election Recap: Major Moments and Critical Insights
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Jason Lake
- November 6, 2024
The only surprise was that it didn’t take longer to declare a winner. It was early Wednesday morning when the call was made: Donald Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. The Republican Party will also take control of the U.S. Senate, although the House of Representatives is still up for grabs at press time.
Okay, maybe it’s also a bit surprising that Trump is apparently going to win the national vote, where he enjoys a 3.5% lead over Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party. That makes the 2024 election a bit less like 2016, when Trump became president despite losing nationally to Hillary Clinton – and a bit more like 1968, when Richard Nixon took advantage of the fractured Dems and swept to power.
However you slice it, Trump was the –165 favorite at political betting sites like Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) heading into Election Day, so while that price may have been inflated, Harris was still the underdog in this fight. And the vote went largely as expected; there were no upsets outside the seven so-called swing states. Even Trump’s 3.5% edge in the national vote falls within the boundaries of normal polling error.
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What Happened to the Blue Wall?
It crumbled again.
Trump’s strength in the Sun Belt swing states was evident well before November 5, as the election odds in those states started improving after the September 10 presidential debate. But the nationwide push towards Trumpism was enough to crash through the Blue Wall and hand the GOP both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with Michigan likely to follow.
Digging a little deeper into the exit polls, it appears Trump has improved his performance, as compared to 2020, within three key demographics:
- Young voters
- Black voters
- Hispanic voters
All three still favored Harris in 2024, but not by the same margins they did when Joe Biden was elected four years ago.
No doubt, the Israel/Palestine situation also cost Harris some precious votes across the Blue Wall, particularly in Michigan. But the 2024 election didn’t really boil down to one region when all was said and done – unless you count the entire American red-state heartland as a singular entity, sandwiched between the blue New England states and the West Coast.
Who Will the Democrats Blame?
So far, it’s Biden – although there hasn’t really been all that much finger-pointing compared to 2016. Harris ran a stronger campaign than Clinton, arguably even stronger than Biden’s from a performance perspective.
At the same time, Trump’s 2024 campaign was the weakest of his three attempts to take the White House. However, it was the most successful. If you remember one thing from that September 10 debate, you probably remember Trump saying this:
In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs – the people that came in. They’re eating the cats.
That was widely portrayed as a political gaffe when it happened, and Harris the easy winner of that debate. But by the following day, immigration and crime were the hottest topics in the 2024 election, not the economy or reproductive rights. Having Elon Musk publicly join the campaign on October 5 and bring the full weight of his social media platform to bear only amplified this message, allowing Trump to divide and conquer the American electorate.
Who Will Win the House?
It’s anybody’s guess at press time. There are no House odds on the board at Bovada or BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as we go to press, with the GOP leading 199-188 in decided seats and 48 still up for grabs. The forecast at 270 to Win has the Democrats ahead 211-209 with 15 toss-up seats; you need 218 seats to control the House.
American democracy will look a lot different in the next two years depending on who wins the House. If it’s the Democrats, their checks and balances will help maintain the status quo to some degree; if it’s the Republicans, expect something similar to 2016, when the GOP won both the presidency and both chambers of Congress – but with a little 1968 thrown in for good measure.
Bet accordingly.
