Whale Bettor Made Estimated $84 Million on Trump Victory

A French bettor who analyzed election betting odds data and wagered heavily on a Donald Trump presidential victory was rewarded handsomely at an online sportsbook with a reported $84 million profit. 

Trump Delivers

A bettor on the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket placed several wagers on Donald Trump to reclaim the Oval Office, and his hard work paid off in a big way. According to initial reports, the bettor named “Theo” was rumored to win $48 million on his major wagers placed squarely on a Donald Trump victory.

However, more recent analysis reveals his total profits are closer to $84 million. Polymarket is the largest prediction market and took in $3.7 billion in election bets, but there are other platforms like Robinhood, Kalshi, Interactive Brokers, and PredictIt that took in billions more. “We identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo’ which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M,” Chainalysis’ X account posted. “An 11th address is suspected with another $2.1M profit, but unconfirmed.”

Only hours before the polls opened on November 5th, Polymarket had Donald Trump with a 58.1% chance of winning to 41.9% for Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Kalshi traders predicted Trump had a 55% chance of winning, while RealClearPolitics gave the former president a 57.9% chance of victory.

Mystery Man

The mysterious bettor named Theo, who describes himself as a wealthy Frenchman with a mathematical and financial trading background, began communicating with a Wall Street Journal reporter after reading a story on election betting on October 18th, several weeks before the election.

In a video conference call last week with the reporter, he said, “My intent is just making money… I have absolutely no political agenda.” However, what Theo did reveal was that American pollsters do have a political agenda that biases their polling data in favor of liberal candidates, in this case Vice President Kamala Harris. His wagers were essentially a bet against the accuracy of the polling data and a belief that his approach was more logically sound.

Theo not only bet on Trump winning the electoral vote but believed he would win the popular vote as well, which proved to be accurate. He also projected a Trump victory in six of the seven battleground states, with Harris winning Michigan. However, Trump won all seven, surpassing even Theo’s expectations.

Neighbor Effect

The mystery man believes many Trump supporters won’t reveal their true intentions in polling surveys, which tends to skew the numbers away from Trump. “I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,” Theo said. “In France, this is different!! The pollster’s credibility is more important; they want to be as close as possible to the actual results. Culture is different on this,” he wrote.

One way to circumvent this dilemma is to ask respondents which candidate their neighbor is likely to vote for, which will elicit more truthful responses as they will indirectly reveal their preferences if they believe the neighbor will be judged by their choice and not them. “Public opinion would have been better prepared if the latest polls had measured that neighbor effect,” Théo said.