Best Swing State Odds Available

It don’t mean a thing if it ain’t got that swing. Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have improved to -125 on the 2024 U.S. election odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), but at the same time, Donald Trump and the Republican Party are making gains in the so-called “Sun Belt” swing states, enough to keep this race very close indeed with early voting already underway. 

Of course, you also have the so-called “Blue Wall” (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) that Harris can sweep to reach the required 270 electoral seats, regardless of what happens in the Sun Belt. As we go to press, BetOnline has the Democrats priced at -115 to do just that.

You can also bet on Trump and the GOP sweeping the Blue Wall, although that’s a tall task at +300. And you can bet on either party completing the Sun Belt sweep. Let’s take a closer look at the politics betting market and see which of these wagers tickles the most fancy.

What Is the Sun Belt?

Before we bet on politics, we need to know the rules of the wager in question. The Sun Belt in this case refers to the following six states, listed in alphabetical order:

• Arizona
• Florida
• Georgia
• North Carolina
• Nevada
• Texas

Do Florida and Texas qualify as “swing” states? They will if Harris keeps making headway in the polls, but for now, both these states are comfortably red; BetOnline has Florida (-700) and Texas (-1000) strongly favored to vote Republican on November 5.

The picture is a bit fuzzier in those other four states. Arizona (-200), Georgia (-165) and Nevada (-130) have inched towards Trump in recent polls, while North Carolina (-130) saw those gains erased after the “Black Nazi” scandal involving GOP gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson.

At press time, Trump and the Republicans are +225 to sweep this expanded version of the Sun Belt, and -350 to come up short. Even before you add Florida and Texas, given the state election odds you see above, you’re looking at an implied probability of 13.26% that Trump will sweep the mini-Sun Belt. That works out to around +650. Taking “No” at -350 is an easy call.

What About the Blue Wall?

The situation is much better up north for Harris and the Democrats. Here are their odds to win each Blue Wall state at BetOnline:

• Pennsylvania -130
• Michigan -200
• Wisconsin -165

Throw those odds into the freedom-loving BMR Odds Converter, mash them up, and you get the equivalent of roughly +325 for the Dems to sweep the Blue Wall. Why are they priced at -115, especially when they’re -125 to win the entire election? Maybe because it’s widely assumed they’ll have swept the Blue Wall if they do indeed take the White House. Whatever the case, the politics odds aren’t with us – unless we take “No” for the sweep occurring, at a tasty -125.

On the other side of the coin, we have the possibility that Trump repeats his 2016 upset special and takes down the entire Blue Wall. “Yes” is priced at +300, which might look reasonable when we’ve got Harris and the Dems at +325 for an implied fair price. But don’t forget about the vig; the GOP is even money to take Pennsylvania, +160 in Michigan, and +135 in Wisconsin, which suggests a fair price of around +1100 when you buy the combo. “No” at -500 is still a bargain.

Is it worth the chalk to take “No” at -2500 for the Democrats sweeping the Sun Belt? Heck yes; if you mash the Harris odds for Florida (+450) and Texas (+600) together, you’re already at +3750 that the Democrats will take both. We don’t even have to do the math on the other four states to know what the answer is. Bet accordingly.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.