Are International Conflicts Affecting Election Polls and Odds? 

Do Foreign Affairs Matter?

I think we call them “international affairs” now. And yes, they certainly do matter to Americans in the grand scheme of things; the U.S. has reportedly spent at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel this past year, and some $175 billion on Ukraine since Russia’s “special military operation” began in February 2022.

But do they matter when it comes to elections? Somewhat. Americans usually care more about the economy and health care, which is only fair – all politics is local, of course. Even with all this stuff happening outside our windows today, here’s how Pew Research recently ranked the topics U.S. registered voters deemed “very important” to their vote for the 2024 election:

1. Economy (81% of respondents)
2. Health care (65)
3. Supreme Court appointments (63)
4. Foreign policy (62)
5. Violent crime (61)
6. Immigration (61)
7. Gun policy (56)
8. Abortion (51)
9. Racial and ethnic inequality (37)
10. Climate change (37)

Note how low violent crime and immigration are on this list; filter to include Republican voters only, and immigration (82) shoots up to second place behind the economy (93), with crime moving up into third (76). Foreign policy (70) remains in fourth.

What About Israel/Palestine?

This is where things get sticky for Harris. When asked which of the two main candidates would do a better job making “good decisions” about foreign policy, Trump came out ahead of Harris 51-45. That’s a smaller gap than Trump enjoyed over Joe Biden (39%) back in July, but substantial nonetheless.

For the most part, Trump and the GOP have failed to link Harris to the actions that the Biden Administration has taken regarding Israel/Palestine. But there’s still a bloc of would-be Democratic voters out there calling themselves the Uncommitted National Movement, who are refusing to cast their ballots until the Dems implement an arms embargo on Israel and secure a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas War.

This is not a small number of voters. Some 700,000 cast “Uncommitted” or similar votes during the Democratic presidential primaries; around 100,000 of those votes were in Michigan, which is home to nearly 400,000 Arab-Americans. Not coincidentally, the Dems have seen their election odds at Bovada slip to -130 in the Mitten State as we go to press.

It could be a short-term effect. The New York Times reported today that the Uncommitted group has just released a video telling its members that a second Trump presidency would be worse for their cause than a Harris victory. If these voters do indeed start coming back into the fold, that could be the turning point that ultimately keeps the Democrats in the White House. Bet accordingly.