It’s like trying to catch fireflies with a pair of chopsticks. Accurate polling has become increasingly challenging these days, especially during the last week of voting for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Is the Democratic Party losing its grip on the election race, as some of the most recent polls suggest? Perhaps; they could even lose the popular vote if this “momentum” from the Republican Party is real.
Of course, just about anything could happen this November 5. But the chances of Donald Trump and the GOP taking the popular vote appear much slimmer than his roughly 50/50 chance of winning a second term in the White House. And given the way the Republicans have inflated the Trump odds this past month, any wager on Kamala Harris and the Dems should have some betting value. Let’s see what’s on the politics odds board at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) as we go to press.
Popular Vote Winner
Even with her polls sagging across the Blue Wall, Harris is the -180 favorite to defeat Trump (+150) in the popular vote, as Hillary Clinton did before her in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. You can also take a flier on “Any Other” at +7500, just in case you think there hasn’t been enough drama during this election race.
If you run those Harris odds through the joyful BMR Odds Converter, you get 64.28% out the other side. This is actually pretty close to the 66% chance that FiveThirtyEight is giving Harris at press time, with their aggregated polls still showing Harris ahead by 1.4%.
It’s very interesting how that gap has narrowed to match the politics odds. Harris and the Dems were up around 3% on Trump when Elon Musk joined the campaign earlier this month; FiveThirtyEight still has Harris winning by 3% using their “fundamentals-only” forecast, but almost all of the weight for their poll aggregate is given to their “adjusted polling average” of 1.9%.
The difference between the two, if it manifests at the ballot box, could be enough to decide the presidency – and maybe even the popular vote. The margin of error in these polls is somewhere close to 5% according to FiveThirtyEight; we can’t say for sure how accurate they are, especially when so many people refuse to answer when the pollsters come calling, but for what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight has Trump winning the popular vote 34% of the time, for a fair vig-free price of +194.
U.S. Presidential Election Betting Odds
Popular Vote: Margin of Victory
Maybe the politics odds aren’t so crazy after all. The top two favorites for Margin of Victory are Harris winning by less than 2.5% (+200), and Trump winning by less than 2.5% (+215). At least the betting market recognizes this is a close race.
If you think the polls are underestimating Harris, BetOnline has her priced at +350 to win the popular vote by somewhere between 2.5% and 4.99% inclusive. Then the Harris odds shoot up to +1400 for the next tier (5% to 7.49%), +2800 for the next (7.5% to 9.99%), and a tasty +4000 for 10% or higher. Clinton won the 2016 popular vote by 2.1%, and Biden the 2020 vote by 4.5%, so don’t be surprised if Harris lands somewhere in between.
Election Winner to Lose Popular Vote?
The closeness of recent polls doesn’t necessarily mean we’re in for a repeat of 2016, when Trump took the Electoral College 304-226 after Clinton’s Blue Wall crumbled. But it’s interesting that “No” is priced at -180 for this event happening again, and “Yes” at +140. FiveThirtyEight estimates Harris’s chances of pulling a Hillary at 20%, or +400 for a fair price; Trump’s chances of suffering the same fate are less than 1%.
Keep in mind that we still haven’t seen any polling yet from the aftermath of Trump’s rally this past Sunday at Madison Square Garden. Maybe it will hurt the Republican cause; maybe not. Keep an eye out for those polls, bet accordingly, and may the ballot box be with you on Election Day.
Publisher’s Note: The odds referenced in this article may have changed since publication. The odds table above shows real-time prices.
