Pop quiz: Who’s the President of the United States? If your first thought was Donald Trump, you’re close: he’s the President-elect. Joe Biden is still POTUS until January 20, when Trump will be sworn in on Inauguration Day.
The confusion is understandable. While Trump and the Republican Party have dominated the media cycle since the 2024 U.S. presidential election (or even 2016), we didn’t hear much from the Biden camp until December 1, when he pardoned his son Hunter Biden for any crimes he “has committed or may have committed” over the past decade.
Up until then, most of the chatter regarding presidential pardons was centered on Trump, and whether he would make good on his promise to pardon (or at least commute the sentences of) those convicted in the January 6 attack on the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. Now the politics odds board at some of the top-rated sportsbooks is buzzing with pardon props for both Trump and Biden. Let’s take a closer look.
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Who Will Biden Pardon?
We begin with the prediction markets at Kalshi, where they’ve got a long list of candidates for Biden to pardon before January 21:
- The favorite at 54% (roughly –117) is Jim Biden, Joe’s younger brother; House Republicans subpoenaed both Jim and Hunter in November 2023, as part of their ongoing impeachment inquiry into President Biden.
- Tied for second at 36% (+178) are Dr. Anthony Fauci, who became the focal point of attack for anti-vaxxers during the COVID-19 pandemic, and Liz Cheney, the former chair of the House Republican Conference and vice chair of the House January 6 Committee.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see President Biden issue pardons to all three of the top favorites. Among his stated reasons for pardoning Hunter (after previously saying he wouldn’t) was that the GOP was allegedly planning to attack Trump’s perceived enemies using the justice system as a weapon. Biden can protect those targets somewhat by pardoning them ahead of time.
Because his decision to pardon Hunter was so controversial, the POTUS is under even more pressure now to extend that protection to others. On Thursday, the White House granted clemency to nearly 1,500 Americans, commuting their sentences in the largest one-day sweep in U.S. history. This may pave the road for more famous figures like Fauci and Cheney to receive preemptive pardons should Trump try to throw them in jail.
Will Biden Pardon Trump?
There’s been some talk that President Biden should also pardon the President-elect, as a way to heal America’s fractured political landscape. Don’t count on it: BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has “No” priced at –1500 on their politics betting board, with “Yes” a distant +600.
This pardon, if issued, would be more ceremonial than anything else. Because he won the election, Trump has already had his sentencing for those 34 felony convictions in New York delayed indefinitely; the Supreme Court has also granted Trump (and Biden, and every future POTUS) “partial” immunity for acts committed while in the White House.
| Will Joe Biden Pardon Donald Trump? | |
|---|---|
| No | -1500 |
| Yes | +600 |
Who Will Trump Pardon?
Our presidential pardon tour ends at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), where at press time, they’ve got a list of 10 candidates for Trump in his first 100 days in office. In this case, the bet covers “presidential pardon, commutation or reprieve” by April 30. And the runaway favorite is any generic “January 6 Protestor” at –2000, up from –500 in late November.
The other likely figure to get sprung is Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht at –220, although that’s down from –400. Ulbricht is one of several “crypto bros” in the libertarian space that Trump wooed during the 2024 campaign; would it be that much of a stretch to see disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (+1900) enjoy similar treatment?
Whichever political bets you decide to make, don’t forget to read the fine print at the online sportsbooks and prediction markets – it looks like the markets at Kalshi might be pardon-only, for example. And at what point is a presidential pardon considered official? Trump can say what he wants on Day One, but there’s still plenty of red tape in this job.
Bet accordingly.
| Who will Trump pardon in first 100 days? | |
|---|---|
| January 6 Protestor | -2000 |
| Ross Ulbricht | -220 |
| Steve Bannon | +175 |
| Julian Assange | +425 |
| Edward Snowden | +450 |
| Donald Trump Sr. | +700 |
| Eric Adams | +700 |
| Diddy | +1900 |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | +1900 |
| Young Thug | +1900 |
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
