Trump’s Hush Money Trial Begins, Continues to Lead Biden Ahead of November

On Monday, April 15th, 2024, Donald Trump became the first former or sitting president to be tried on criminal charges after his historic hush money trial got underway in Manhattan, New York.

Trump, the GOP’s presumptive presidential nominee, faces 34 felony counts for allegedly falsifying business records to disguise a payment to an adult film actress shortly before the 2016 presidential election. Despite his legal battles, Trump continues to lead Biden in the most recent polls and the latest presidential election odds being offered by political betting sites.

Let’s recap the basics of the trial and analyze how it could affect the betting markets in the upcoming months.

What Is the Stormy Daniels Hush Money Case?

In April of 2023, the Manhattan district attorney’s office accused former President Trump of allegedly orchestrating a scheme, during the 2016 elections, with then-lawyer Michael Cohen to conceal a payment of $130,000 for adult film actress, Stormy Daniels, to stay silent about affair allegations. In total, he faces 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree.

However, under New York law they are classified as “Class E felonies”, the lowest level in the state. The former president has pleaded not guilty to all counts.

Forecast

Each count carries a maximum sentence of four years. Also, Trump could be sentenced to serve multiple counts consecutively. Despite this, legal experts consulted by USA Today stated that this is highly unlikely due to two main factors:

• Trump has no prior felony criminal record.
• There are no allegations of physical violence involved

Given the circumstances and the discretion available to judges in these situations, a sentence of probation is the most likely outcome, according to lawyers Mitchell Epner and Anna Cominsky, quoted by USA Today.

Even in the “worst-case” scenario for Trump, where he faces a sentence of incarceration if convicted, it’s unlikely for him to do any jail time as would likely get a bail set by an appeals court during that process.

This would allow him to continue his campaign. Since nothing in the Constitution bars him from becoming president even if convicted or sentenced to prison, the courts would likely delay any possible prison time until after 2028.

Impact

Although a recent study from Quinnipiac University found that the outcome of this particular case is unlikely to change how registered voters will think in November, it is worth noting that the former president has seen his advantage shrink during the past month.

As a matter of fact, since the last State of the Union address, incumbent President Joe Biden has seen his stock rise amongst both voters and oddsmakers. According to a poll from the New York Times and Siena College, published on April 13th, Trump has a 1-point advantage over Biden. This is a 4-point drop from the last Times/Siena survey, back in February.

Similarly, the odds for the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee have almost dropped a full dollar since February. During that period, his price has gone from around +200 down to around +105 at most betting sites, with one of our partner shops offering a pick ‘em. Currently, both Biden and Trump are -105 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

Recent improvements in the economy and the labor market, according to the latest figures, along with Biden’s strong performance during what could be his last SOTU could be the reason behind the recent resurgence of the incumbent.

However, with so many variables in play, how long these tendencies last remains to be seen.