What Happens if the 2024 Election Ends in a Tie? Exploring Vote Counting Scenarios and Outcomes

How Can There Be No Winner?

We’ve had two U.S. elections where nobody reached the required total: 1800 and 1824. The first one saw Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr (both from the old Democratic-Republican Party, which has no ties to today’s GOP) finish tied for first with 73 electoral votes; the second had four different Democratic-Republican candidates split the vote, none of them receiving a majority.

Politics works a bit differently now. That 1800 election led to the 1804 ratification of the 12th Amendment, which made the distinction between electoral votes for president and vice-president; this is still how elections are decided in the United States. And the Democratic-Republican Party was the only party of note back in 1824 – until after the election, when they split into the Democrats and what would later be known as the Whigs.

It’s still possible for all candidates to come up short of those 270 votes. A third party could swoop in and grab a seat or two, although that appears highly unlikely in 2024 – especially after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled himself out of contention. Or a “faithless elector” could refuse to cast their ballot in accordance with who won the state they represent, like what happened in the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton.

What Happens If It’s A Tie?

The same thing that happened in 1800 and 1824: the House of Representatives will hold a contingent election to decide who becomes president. There will be one change, though, as the Senate will be asked to decide the vice-president.

Given that the Democrats are polling as slight favorites to win the House, and the Republicans are leading in the Senate, we could wind up with a Harris-Vance White House should the 2024 presidential election end in a tie. However, the contingent elections work differently; you need to carry a majority of state delegations, and House Republicans are “solid” or “ahead” in 25 states according to FiveThirtyEight, with three more leaning towards the GOP.

How Do We Get to 269-269?

Since we’ve been talking up that 270-268 outcome for so long, the easiest way for us to wrap our heads around this scenario is by looking at Nebraska’s 2nd District. That “Blue Dot” in a sea of ‘Husker Red is worth one electoral vote, and while Harris was up 9% in the most recent polls from The New York Times/Siena College, that was way back in late September.

If we limit our calculus to the seven swing states, we’ll land on 269-269 if the Republicans take both Pennsylvania and Michigan while holding onto North Carolina, while the Democrats take Wisconsin and sweep the remaining “Sun Belt” states of Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. You could also swap Georgia and North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes and get the same result, or the GOP could take the entire Blue Wall and Nevada, and the Dems the rest.

All other 269-269 scenarios require a non-swing state to vote in an unexpected direction. Should we expect the unexpected? Bet accordingly.

Publisher’s Note: The odds referenced in this article may have changed since publication. The odds table above shows real-time prices.