Who Won the VP Debate?

It wouldn’t be the 2024 U.S. presidential election without surprises. J.D. Vance was the underdog for Tuesday’s vice-presidential debate on CBS, checking in at around +200 on the politics odds board behind Tim Walz at -300; a YouGov/CBS News poll showed Vance winning 42%-41%, with the remaining 17% of responders calling it a tie, while Vance dominated on a series of focus group surveys immediately following the debate.

Depending on which way you want to spin it, Tuesday’s surprise has either handed Donald Trump the White House, or done absolutely nothing to change the outcome. 

BetOnline Sportsbook moved their odds to -110/-110 following the debate and reported to Bookmakers Review that they have seen a steady supply of money come in on former President Donald Trump.

Is Trump Winning?

Maybe. Looking a bit more closely at those headlines, Trump appears to have taken a slight advantage at several European and UK-based online sportsbooks – and some reports had Trump gloating over this.

Meanwhile, other sportsbooks, including BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), have the 2024 race dead even at -110 apiece. And Harris is still ahead at Bovada and other locations as we go to press. Even the prediction markets have Harris on top, 54-49 at PredictIt and 50-49 at Polymarket.

There’s more than just the Atlantic Ocean separating America and Europe. Whether you’re betting on politics, sports or just about anything, you’ll often find different odds when you look overseas; it could be the culture, or it could be as simple as the time zone difference, which will impact the size of the market and the volume of bets.

Whatever the case, it appears Trump and the GOP have enjoyed at least a slight bump in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s debate. They might even continue that momentum for a few days, but if history is any indication, that buzz will wear off well before November 5 – barring yet another next dramatic turn of events.

What Do the Polls Say?

It will take a while before Tuesday’s result filters down to the polls, but as things stand, Harris still has something like a 3-4% lead over Trump nationwide. YouGov/The Economist (No. 4 on the FiveThirtyEight pollster rankings) has Harris ahead three points among likely voters, using data collected between September 29 and October 1.

It’s entirely possible the Republicans will in fact narrow the gap between themselves and the Democrats – at least in the polls – after what went down Tuesday. Substance aside, Vance was the more poised and relaxed speaker that night, while Walz appeared a bit nervous, and had some minor verbal stumbles.

Naturally, everyone piled on Walz afterward for his performance. Did Harris make the wrong choice when she named Walz her vice-presidential running mate, instead of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro? How quickly we forget the positive vibes the Dems were generating when Walz got the nod instead.

Does the VP Debate Even Matter?

From an election betting perspective, the answer is clear: sometimes. After the vice-presidential debates in both 2016 and 2020, the Democrats saw their odds improve (in terms of implied probability) by 14% and 5% respectively in the space of five days. But in 2012, the Republicans gained all of 1% despite Joe Biden’s easy victory over Paul Ryan.

When it comes to the actual outcome, no, the veep debates are usually just another bump in the road to the White House. But this election is anything but usual. It’s entirely possible the GOP will be able to link Walz in the minds of undecided voters with the exceptionally poor debate Biden had against Trump on CNN. And it might only take a few thousand of those votes to swing the election.

Only twice since 1866 has the pre-election underdog won the White House: Harry Truman in 1948, and Donald Trump in 2016. The razor-thin margins we’re dealing with in 2024 have everyone in a tizzy, so bet accordingly, and as Ramirez told Connor MacLeod, don’t lose your head.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.