Our Top Betting Pick for UFC 291
Dustin Poirier -136 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The UFC returns to Salt Lake City, Utah, as top contending lightweight competitors will exchange leather for the evening’s main event, and we’re covering all your betting needs.
Fan favorites Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje will meet for a second time in their careers, but the vacant “BMF” title will be up for grabs.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC 291 main event clash between Poirier and Gaethje, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Poirier vs. Gaethje Key Facts
- Poirier defeated Gaethje via KO/TKO in 2018
- Poirier has won 4 of his last 5 UFC bouts
- Gaethje is 2-2 in his previous 4 UFC bouts
UFC 291 Information
- When: Saturday, July 29, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT
- Where: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
- Scheduled Bouts: 12
- Main Event: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
- Moneyline Probability: Gaethje – 46.3% (+116) Poirier – 57.6% (-136)
UFC 291 Poirier vs. Gaethje: Tale of the Tape
Dustin Poirier
Good luck finding a dull moment during the long and storied octagon career of Dustin Poirier. “The Diamond” is an elite mixed martial artist, but he is always a fighter first, as displayed by the countless Fight of the Night bonuses he has garnered over the past twelve years as a UFC competitor.
Despite becoming an interim champ in 2019, the UFC Lightweight gold has alluded Poirier in his opportunities against Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. However, the chance to be recognized as one of the division's greatest has arrived in the shape of the “BMF” title, which Jorge Masvidal recently vacated.
It doesn’t hold the prestige of becoming the division's reigning and defending champion. Still, if anyone deserves a makeshift strap around their waist, Poirier unquestionably deserves a chance to place himself on that pedestal.
Poirier Combat Sports Accomplishments
- Interim UFC Lightweight Champion (One time)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Eight times)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
Poirier Best Moneyline Odds: -136 at BetOnline
Justin Gaethje
With 71% of his UFC victories ending via KO/TKO, Justin Gaethje is the perfect replacement to hold Jorge Masvidal’s “Bad Mother F**ker” championship. But first, he must get through a familiar foe in Poirier, a man who has already defeated him.
The UFC career and fighting style of Gaethje is incredibly reminiscent of Poirier; both being former interim lightweight champions with a consistent position in the top rankings and a never say die attitude in the octagon that’s delivered countless Fight of the Night performances.
Despite losing two lightweight championship opportunities against Oliveira and Nurmagomedov, neither man has fought Islam Makhachev, as the “BMF” title could certainly be a path for Gaethje or Poirier to receive another chance at gold.
Gaethje Combat Sports Accomplishments
- Interim UFC Lightweight Champion (One time)
- UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
- UFC Fight of the Night (Seven times)
- Highest significant strike accuracy % in UFC Lightweight division history (60.2 %)
- WSOF Lightweight Champion (One time; first; only)
Gaethje Best Moneyline Odds: +116 with BetOnline
UFC 291 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
It’s been five years since Poirier and Gaethje first met in the octagon, a contest that ended with the latter being stopped via fourth-round TKO. However, not much has changed, as the evolution of their respective skill sets reached an elite level many years ago.
For Poirier, he’s unquestionably the complete fighter of the two, as Gaethje’s past success has largely involved constant offense without an answer from the opposition. He won’t own this advantage, and from an offensive/defensive perspective, Poirier can handle both situations incredibly well.
We’ve watched Gaethje fold under pressure as his ability to defend and answer back hasn’t been great – a story we watched play out the last time these met. Faced with the everlasting cardio, constant pressure, and diverse MMA toolbox, it isn’t easy to make a case for the underdog outside of a surprise knockout.
Poirier Moneyline: The UFC 291 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds at the best sportsbooks for US residents opened Poirier as the betting underdog, and to no surprise, the line has flip-flopped.
Poirier will own a grappling advantage; he’s already overcome this test and should probably have a larger price tag than -136 attached to his name.
Gaethje can never be underestimated, but I can’t envision him bringing anything different to the table from his first meeting with Poirier in 2018. With a higher striking output gained over the fighter with the highest significant striking percent in the division, greater grappling, and an excellent price tag, it’s an automatic bet on “The Diamond.”
UFC Picks: Dustin Poirier -136 at BetOnline [1.36u to win 1u]
UFC 291 Main Card & Odds
- Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje [UFC lightweight main event bout]
- Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira [UFC co-main light heavyweight bout]
- Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green [UFC lightweight bout]
- Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Holland [UFC welterweight bout]
UFC 291 Preliminary Card & Odds
- Trevin Giles vs. Gabriel Bonfim [UFC welterweight bout]
- Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima [UFC heavyweight bout]
- Roman Kopylov vs. Claudio Ribeiro [UFC middleweight bout]
- Jake Matthews vs. Darrius Flowers [UFC welterweight bout]
- CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador [UFC flyweight bout]
- Matthew Semelsberger vs. Uros Medic [UFC welterweight bout]
- Miranda Maverick vs. Priscila Cachoeira [UFC women’s flyweight bout]
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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