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Sharp bettors fade Colorado, others in South Point games of year
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION8/2/24
The betting public is back on the Colorado bandwagon in Deion Sanders’ second season as coach.
But sharp bettors faded Coach Prime and Co. when the South Point sportsbook posted lines last week on 100 college football games of the year.
“They bet against Colorado a lot,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. “Deion supposedly beefed up the line of scrimmage, which is what they needed to do. But I don’t know. We’ll see.”
A handful of sharp bettors placed wagers of up to $2,000 each over the counter at South Point when Andrews first posted the lines July 26, and a plethora of pro bettors fired wagers of up to $1,000 each on the mobile app.
“It was 90 percent sharp action,” Andrews said. “I’ve got a lot of respect for them. They’re tying up their money for months at a time thinking they’re getting a number that won’t be available come the real game time.”
There have been a bevy of line moves, including Colorado’s rivalry game at Colorado State. The Buffaloes opened as 10½-point favorites in the Sept. 14 showdown before sharp action on the underdog Rams caused the line to drop to 9.
Texas-based pro sports bettor Paul Stone made the trek to Las Vegas to wager on the openers at South Point. He still recommends a play on Colorado State at +9.
“The one I probably like the most is Colorado State +9,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “There are no locks in betting. But there are a few things at work here that I feel really line up nicely in Colorado State’s corner.”
Stone noted that this is the first time since 1996 that Colorado State will host Colorado in Fort Collins, and that the Rams have one of the best wide receivers in the country in Tory Horton.
The Rams threw for 397 yards in last year’s 43-35 loss to the Buffs in double overtime, and Horton had 16 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown.
“Colorado and Coach Prime clearly have that outstanding offense, but their Achilles heel is that defense and, more specifically, the back of their defense,” Stone said. “The scheduling dynamics also strongly favor Colorado State.”
Fading Texas
Andrews said he took multiple sharp bets on Brigham Young and Pittsburgh, and against Washington and Texas.
“We got a lot of action on BYU, who I think is going to be terrible,” he said. “Pitt, I think, is going to be pretty bad, but they bet on Pitt so maybe I overestimated how bad they’ll be.”
Stone backed BYU twice — +21 at Utah on Nov. 9 (current line 18½) and +14½ at Southern Methodist on Sept. 6 (current line 14).
“I’m certainly not high on BYU,” Stone said. “In those cases, it’s all about the number to me. I’m betting numbers, not teams.”
In a notable line move, Washington, which lost to Michigan in last season’s College Football Playoff national championship, dropped from a 13-point favorite over Washington State to -9. Penn State also shot up from -15 over Washington to -16½.
Stone twice faded Texas at the South Point, backing Arkansas as a 21-point home underdog to the Longhorns on Nov. 16 (current line 17) and Texas A&M as a 6-point home underdog to Texas (current line 4½) on Nov. 30.
He also recommends a play on Florida +18 at Texas on Nov. 9.
“I’m certainly not down on the Longhorns. I’ve got Texas No. 4 in my power ratings, which is behind Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon, in that order,” he said. “I just think the market’s too high from what I think the line should be.
“In that Florida game, anything higher than 17 seems like a bonus backing the underdog. You’ve got a Texas team that’ll be playing what I call the dog days of November, when favorites tend to let their foot off the gas.”
Fading Michigan, Alabama
Stone did back the Longhorns as 2½-point favorites at Michigan on Sept. 7 (current line 3½).
“Michigan has a new coach and a significant quarterback quandary on its hands. This will only be the second game of the season, and I don’t think Texas is the kind of opponent you want to be finding out who your quarterback is,” he said. “This is a veteran Texas team. They’ve got a lot of experience and a lot of firepower.”
Stone also recommends a play on Wisconsin as a 10-point home underdog to Alabama on Sept. 14 in Kalen DeBoer’s first road game as Crimson Tide coach.
“Camp Randall’s going to be rocking,” Stone said. “And Alabama is only 5-9 against the spread the last three years as an away favorite.”
