🏈 10/30 Monday Night Football Edition & All Sports *CHAT & IN-GAME THREAD*

[Tanko]

Line tonight has dropped to Det -7.
@KVB what's your thoughts on this line move and any side your leaning towards?

 

[KVB]

Line tonight has dropped to Det -7.
@KVB what's your thoughts on this line move and any side your leaning towards?

Stacking percentages forecast has Detroit winning 27-17.

The non-predictive public gauge has Detroit winning 27-21.

First the Total, which opened at 44, 45 in some houses and is making it's through 46 and 46.5. That basically splits the above forecasts. So the forecasts to makes some sense of that line. The public likes thier OVERs and do bet them up a bit sometimes.

When it comes to the spread we saw a 7.5 open it even moved up, but let's face there isn't much overlay their with a 10 point prediction and a bet on Detroit. The line moved to 8.5 even 9 before coming back down. Not many of us would lay 7.5 when we only see a 10 point margin of victory, the books are at my number.

But that line did come down, and 7 still isn't enough. Some might take a -6.5 though, if the books dare.

I want to add a little note on these numbers which explain some of the line drop. That 27-17 prediction is a Total of 44. Over more than 6000 games since the year 2000 that Total of 44 is the most frequent game total in the NFL, beating out 41 by hundredths of percentage points. In fact, it's basically a tie between 44, 41, and then just below that is 51 as far as frequency.

When it comes to the spread and team totals, a 10 point margin of victory is the 4th most frequent margin of victory behind 3, 7, and 6 points.

Team totals of 27 and 17 are in the top 4 team Totals in terms of frequency, with 17 being at the top of the list (along with 20) and 27 in 4th place, just behind 24.

So you can see my adjusted score prediction is a pretty common overall NFL score. When facing a 7.5, with no prediction looming, it becomes much easier to take the dog, at least to put that line onto the 7. To take it off the 7, to 6.5 takes the same kind of pressure, it could get steamy, and could generate -6.5 bets here if it drops.

Margins of victory of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 are all in the top ten most common margins (not in order) over all those games. But on the other side you have 7, of course, but then just 8, 10 and 14 round out the top ten most common margins (again not in order).

So a variety of forecasts, like the public gauge only showing a 6 point victory, and other forecast all around this 6 to 10 margin of victory for Detroit might find a lot more possibity in betting a lower margin of victory, like 1-6, while neutral on 7, 8, and even 10, with favorite trigger maybe only coming with a 14 point prediction, which isn't even in the range of forecasts I mentioned.

Perhaps early manipulation to get a better dog price occurred on this line and now we are seeing that dog money come into play today.

If I'm right, we could very well see 6.5 here.

 

[KVB]

I know that post was a lot, but I think it's worth the read.

You can see my prediction, but I'm not sure I pull the trigger on the forecast alone unless we go to -6. Even then, it might no be automatic.

At this point, my "lean" is against the movement, for the favorite, Detroit, and not to increase or chase the steam.

If we somehow saw 5.5 with no injury issues or major news, I'd go against the move, and take the favorite.

But the NFL can be a bitch about that.

 

[KVB]

Detroit has had a run of success like almost never before on primetime games this season and we all knew they would be pretty good this year.

I don't see the upset happening, but that fukkin back door is always in the cards.

 

[Tanko]

Detroit has had a run of success like almost never before on primetime games this season and we all knew they would be pretty good this year.

I don't see the upset happening, but that fukkin back door is always in the cards.

Thanks for the great info.
I have Det in a teaser at -2 (combined with the Bills -2 winner last thursday).

Took the -7 -104 on Detroit. Like you indicated -6.5 may pop up but I'm tied up later so I placed the wager early.

 

[agendaman]

nfl-week9.these are 2tough games to cap indeed.dallas at eagles -2.5 and miami at k.c -2.5.maybe a teaser parlay on both dgs.

 

[sharpsquare]

NHL:
Sides: 6-6 +2.57
Props: 0-0

Car/Philly U6.5 (-128)
Winnipeg +155 (60M)



NBA:
Sides: 1-1 -0.10
Props: 0-0

Hawks +116

 

[KVB]

Thanks for the great info...

The info is good, and I talk about some key numbers but notice I put some out of order and don't really talk about push rates. I also use a blanket set of games from this century but have yet to share ways to refine those rates to include direction. Rule changes, and now analytics, mess with these all the time.

The important takeaway is the process. I have two quotes I like to use that I made up. One of them most everyone knows....

"Keep track of your bets and why you made them." ...That's huge. We pretty much all have access to the same info but by doing that you can create stats that not even the best in the world have. That is until we make you. Remember, I make a vareity of forecasts and they tell me where all different levels of bettors are sitting.

But there's another, that applies my posts above...

"If you know why the line opened where it opened and moved to where it moved then you will go a long way towards winning long term." ...For that one I'll just add...think about it.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Detroit doesn't seem quite the same without David Montgomery in the backfield

 

[Tanko]

Detroit doesn't seem quite the same without David Montgomery in the backfield

I'm wondering if he'll be back in two weeks. They kind of thought he might play last night but on Saturday rulled him out. Its good they have a bye next week.