🔎5 Historically Profitable NFL Betting Systems

[Tanko]

As a side note, because I had to look.... damn KVB asking questions kept me looking at this stuff, at least a 1000 ft level.

Here's the difference in WIN % for these systems between using opening and closing lines...

WIN%	Dogs <42 Tot	Div Dogs < 42 Tot	Dogs w/ 20+ pt loss	Hm, Div, Dogs Wk 1-6
Opening Line	53	56	53	61
Closing Line	55	62	57	58

You lose some value w/ opening lines.
I know, so much more to be considered in this but its interesting to work the numbers.

 

[easy_street]

QL is spot on.

I develop and track people's systems quite a bit and find that this is 100% true. When a someone tells you, "Hey this system has hit 60% since 2013", look at it closer. One year it may have went 8-1 to sway the win% while in most years it is a loser.

I have yet to find a system that wins consistently every year. Although I will say there are a few that win a little in most years and just break even in their "bad" years. But, those are rare.

Tanko is the man

 

[easy_street]

Has anyone ever wondered why -3/+3 have different ML values across different matchups? Is this because of the handle?

For example: Dolphins at Chargers +3/-3 had Dolphins +140 at a local book, other -3 games had the dog at +150 etc. Dolphins won straight up. I thought the ML was directly related to the spread.

 

[pete0]

Has anyone ever wondered why -3/+3 have different ML values across different matchups? Is this because of the handle?

For example: Dolphins at Chargers +3/-3 had Dolphins +140 at a local book, other -3 games had the dog at +150 etc. Dolphins won straight up. I thought the ML was directly related to the spread.

KVB answered this1 a some while back.

Yes. Yes/No.

Books may not want to come off a key no. after being exposed already for a middle.
dog ML is being hit hard . either by public/sharp.
^ in this particular example. This way, they "short" the ml dog while not moving off key no.

or the book is head faking one side. (while already knowing the most likely outcome)

 

[easy_street]

KVB answered this1 a some while back.

Yes. Yes/No.

Books may not want to come off a key no. after being exposed already for a middle.
dog ML is being hit hard . either by public/sharp.
^ in this particular example. This way, they "short" the ml dog while not moving off key no.

or the book is head faking one side. (while already knowing the most likely outcome)

that makes total sense. I assume it's somewhere in between - head fake and not wanting to give dolphins +3.5

awesome insight, thanks

 

[Wagerallsports]

NFL Betting System: Underdogs with Low Total​

This system builds off the theory that when the under does well, so does the underdog.

Over the last five NFL seasons, underdogs in games with totals less than or equal to 42 points are 148-110-5 ATS.

The system does even better when it’s a divisional matchup. Over the last five seasons, divisional underdogs with a total less than or equal to 42 are 60.2% ATS (65-43-3).



Teams this week?

 

[jjgold]

Always has worked thanks for tip Roger

 

[KVB]

I feel like we just saw this thread and I mentioned that this has effects in college football too.

Or maybe it's just a deja vu.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

So this week would be:

Hou +3
TB +3
Tenn +2.5
Jets +8.5

 

[Wagerallsports]

I feel like we just saw this thread and I mentioned that this has effects in college football too.

Or maybe it's just a deja vu.

It was indeed but I didn't was asking which teams meet this one this week

Merged here

 

[Wagerallsports]

So this week would be:

Hou +3
TB +3
Tenn +2.5
Jets +8.5

And Tampa being a division matchup