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Alabama +145

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JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,912
That's the brutal thing about sports betting

You play this game 100 times, probably right around 50-50. But wrong side of variance this particular match-up, even though price was awesome

I would see if these two teams play in the SEC tourney, make a bet on Alabama again
Thanks for the moral support tonight. This one was a bad call on my part. I took the bait & got hooked easy.
 

stormtrooper8

stormtrooper8

Joined
May 30, 2022
Messages
11,107
Funny thing is, if the Vols were dogs I wouldā€˜ve picked them. Thought the line was off & it wasnā€™t.
Lines capture the middle of distribution of outcomes well. Mean outcome if these teams played significant amount of games would have been probably more like Vols by 1 to 1.5 or so. So +145 is great for ML

Turnovers are a highly variable stat, doubt much of that distrbution had Vols +10 in that department (or whatever it was).

It's a brutal game. Lot of variance. And there's only 1 outcome or "simulation"
 
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