Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

[jjgold]

4:30pm Pacific Buffalo +15 O50.5 +477 Toledo -15 U50.5 -650 4:00pm Pacific Northern Illinois -5½ O45.5 -225 Central Michigan +5½ U45.5 +188

 

[flyingillini]

Both dogs for me

 

[jjgold]

That’s probably the safest play

 

[flyingillini]

That’s probably the safest play

 

[carolinakid]

not much to work on with these 2 bad games tonite

 

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[carolinakid]

ml with n ill

 

[KVB]

ml with n ill

You're thinking moneyline at the worst price yet?

I'm curious, CK, how much are you willing to pay for the Nilly moneyline?

Are you betting it, or are you just saying you think Nilly will win?

Are you chasing moneyline steam here or did you already pick this up?

So many questions, lol.

 

[carolinakid]

not playing either games better bet in the brazil basketball imo

 

[KVB]

not playing either games better bet in the brazil basketball imo

Ok, it did seem like you were just suggesting Nilly moneyline and would literally be the easiest possible prediction, according to the market, that you can make.

lol

But I'm not so sure the market is efficient here. I have a different take, so far, on this game.

 

[carolinakid]

to be honest i have never like this conf foots or basketball

 

[KVB]

My stacking percentages Forecast has Northern Illinois scoring 24 or 23 points to Central Michigan's 24 or 23 points with the slight moneyline edge to Northern Illinois. For both teams I assess equal probabilty to a team total of 23 or 24 points.

The non-predictive public gauge has Northern Illinois winning 28-26.

Seems like I haven't said this much recently but the spread has moved away from my forecast with a commensurate moneyline move. The Total is at my line.

This move against the line is tougher to explain with my numbers as I have a variety of forecasts and nearly all of them predict a closer game and some even the outright upset. An inefficiency could be getting exposed here.

When trying to capture numbers on the underdog as the line moves form 3.5 it makes some sense that there is support on Cent. Mich at 6 but of course even more at 6.5.

Pinny sits there, and not many others do with -6.5 at even money. It will be interesting to see if the market will tolerate a broad 6.5 across the board and, if so, for how long.

The forecasts like +6.5, even if it approaches -115, and the dog moneyline at better than +200.

Based on market metrics not mentioned and the forecasts, at this point in trading, this game seems like a good candidate for the strategy to pick up Central Mich on the moneyline at better than 2-1 and once they take the lead early, look to sell back into an equity situation.

There's still some trading left here, but I'm watching this line closely.

 

[Tanko]

Both these games are crap tonight. I don't see any kind of side play.

Maybe a total but still looking.
Toledo has tendency to give up a lot of points to bad teams.

 

[Tanko]

The Toledo total has dropped from 52.5 open to 50.
I've got this total estimated at 53. 35-38 for Toledo and 14-17 Buffalo.

 

[flyingillini]

My stacking percentages Forecast has Northern Illinois scoring 24 or 23 points to Central Michigan's 24 or 23 points with the slight moneyline edge to Northern Illinois. For both teams I assess equal probabilty to a team total of 23 or 24 points.

The non-predictive public gauge has Northern Illinois winning 28-26.

Seems like I haven't said this much recently but the spread has moved away from my forecast with a commensurate moneyline move. The Total is at my line.

This move against the line is tougher to explain with my numbers as I have a variety of forecasts and nearly all of them predict a closer game and some even the outright upset. An inefficiency could be getting exposed here.

When trying to capture numbers on the underdog as the line moves form 3.5 it makes some sense that there is support on Cent. Mich at 6 but of course even more at 6.5.

Pinny sits there, and not many others do with -6.5 at even money. It will be interesting to see if the market will tolerate a broad 6.5 across the board and, if so, for how long.

The forecasts like +6.5, even if it approaches -115, and the dog moneyline at better than +200.

Based on market metrics not mentioned and the forecasts, at this point in trading, this game seems like a good candidate for the strategy to pick up Central Mich on the moneyline at better than 2-1 and once they take the lead early, look to sell back into an equity situation.

There's still some trading left here, but I'm watching this line closely.

Thank you KVB aka the new and improved GanchJus7

 

[KVB]

this game seems like a good candidate for the strategy to pick up Central Mich on the moneyline at better than 2-1 and once they take the lead early, look to sell back into an equity situation.

Central Michigan with the 7-0 lead.

 

[KVB]

this game seems like a good candidate for the strategy to pick up Central Mich on the moneyline at better than 2-1 and once they take the lead early, look to sell back into an equity situation.

Cent. Mich up 17-3 and I'm closing that open C Mich +205 with some NIU +200.

I now have both teams at 2-1 on the moneyline, as well as the pregame C Mich +6.5 and C Mich +205 that's being held, with no intent to sell back.

 

[Tanko]

Cent. Mich up 17-3 and I'm closing that open C Mich +205 with some NIU +200.

I now have both teams at 2-1 on the moneyline, as well as the pregame C Mich +6.5 and C Mich +205 that's being held, with no intent to sell back.

Nice position KVB....

 

[rdalert447]

Poster Fifty Cint is an A-10 and MAAC sharp. Pay attention.

 

[KVB]

Nice position KVB....

Sometimes sports can make us look smarter than we are and sometimes sports can make us look dumber than we are.

Today it's making me look smart, so far.