Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

[Tanko]

Sometimes sports can make us look smarter than we are and sometimes sports can make us look dumber than we are.

Today it's making me look smart, so far.

Imma gonna say..... Sports makes you look smarter a whooooollllleeeee lot more than the times it makes you look "less-smarter".

Just my observation.

 

[pete0]

Cent. Mich up 17-3 and I'm closing that open C Mich +205 with some NIU +200.

I now have both teams at 2-1 on the moneyline, as well as the pregame C Mich +6.5 and C Mich +205 that's being held, with no intent to sell back.

thats what i like to see KVB,

good chit.

 

[jjgold]

Sometimes sports can make us look smarter than we are and sometimes sports can make us look dumber than we are.

Today it's making me look smart, so far.

Its all random you win and lose but eventually the books get 98% of us

 

[KVB]

Its all random you win and lose but eventually the books get 98% of us

Here's how you get around that.

Make good bets...

This move against the line is tougher to explain with my numbers as I have a variety of forecasts and nearly all of them predict a closer game and some even the outright upset. An inefficiency could be getting exposed here.

It's nice to potentially expose the inefficiency, get down, and then have it work too. In that order.

It's nice to get a good bet and win it too, but it's more important to get the good bet.

Control what you can.

Get it, Gold? Or...

 

[jjgold]

Two more dice games tonight

 

[KVB]

Two more dice games tonight

I didn't get into the Forecasts and market for posting today but I will say the I think the wrong team is favored...in BOTH games.

 

[Brock Landers]

Two more dice games tonight

Not really
Ball st 0-4 on the road

 

[KVB]

Not really
Ball st 0-4 on the road

Yeah, they suck too.

I ended up not betting either game even though I have UPSETS predicted.

I only have about 3 scores predicted in the 2nd game, the UNDER seems like a good look, but I think I'm out tonight as fart as NCAAF goes.

 

[pete0]

I didn't get into the Forecasts and market for posting today but I will say the I think the wrong team is favored...in BOTH games.

i blindly bet dogs & ML. on ALL NCAAF games

EXCEPT Saturday

no capping necessary.

 

[KVB]

Here we go again. Have dogs tonight as well.

I usually don't post Fund plays, or any plays, if I'm not tracking all of them, with detailed tracking. That means posting all of them. I haven't been doing that. I've done it in the past, I might start again, or it might just be a little more casual, as info and analysis is a focus. Maybe I can blend the two.

Anyway, I'm ready to start posting about Funds again. I've made my buys, and some value is gone. But the markets are still close. I hate past posting plays but what the hell.

I want to post the Fund results, especially the "market tracking Funds" I used to always talk about. But it only felt genuine if I posted every play that way the results were all verified. Well, I haven't posted every play this season but I still want to refer to those market tracking Funds for info purposes and analysis.

That means if I say the Fund was down last week, if I didn't post it, you might have to trust me. If I say it was up, same thing. I hate this scenario. I'm honest, but you shouldn't have to trust me. At this point in the season, there's no choice. I don't know what to do.

FlyMe readers might remember I went on vacation and had to update the history. I added a handful of losing plays. I past posted, but they were losers. Because the data of the tracking Fund results are what is important, not what my win loss record looks like. It's like that.

Anyway, I'm in a tough spot and onto the games. Like I said I made some buys, many posted already in other threads.

 

[Pimike]

No need to bet anything

you guys are junkies

lol

don’t force anything

 

[KVB]

The Stacking Percentages Forecast has TCU scoring 31 points to Texas Tech's 31 points with a slight moneyline edge on TCU.

The public gauge has TCU winning 30-28.

The line has ever so slightly pressed down, off of the 3, but I believe much of that pressure could be due to slight moneyline pressure on TCU, forcing the number to adjust.

There are some small margins captured in the +3, and it should surely stem at +2.5.

From a range of forecasts it's a close game but, when adjust the right forecasts, I generate Fund plays.

I have TCU moneyline, since the open, and triggered it in the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket at about +125 and better. The Fund has +125 and +130, and some shit in the middle. This strategy is overperforming this year, at this point in the season, if you ask me. The ROI for plays that have drifted into this range is near 8%, that is pretty high for a market tracking Fund. Makes a bit suspisious.

This game opened as a trigger.

 

[KVB]

Funds didn't do so well last night. Only think I won last night was Wake Spread.

The stacking percentages forecast has Colorado State winning the game outright with 28 points to Wyoming's 21 or 20 points, with equal enough probability.

The non predictive public gauge has Wyoming winning 28-20.

The line has moved from 7 in some spots to 6, towards the forecast. The Total in the market appears low, when compared to the Forecasts.

This game checks off the boxes, of which I won't go into all of them. I have bought since the OPEN and have +7 here, and +6.5, and may be taking +6 at plus money before the day is over.

This game is in the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund and while we can all acknowledge it's tough to play in Wyoming, where there will be some wind, coming down from 15 mph at game time heading in one direction at War Memorial stadium, I will acknowledge that there is come evidence this line opened too high as some market pressure is Wyoming to respond to a poor performance last week. This created value on Colorado State.

I've talked about this back in FlyMe and have mentioned it at BMR recently as well. It's one metric, tallied up across muiltiple metrics, that once massaged to apply, I am willing to say could be a factor in the markets. We believe it was here.

I've often said that edges are found on the road these days, and with road dogs, hence the Fund name. Expect to hear more of that in the future from me.

Not only was the line too high for Wyoming, but this Total, at this level, combined with that 7 and 6.5 spread, making a compelling probabilistic trigger that is built into forecast adjustments. It's Wyoming, it's going to be a grind. I can further adjust this forecast with contrarian adjustments from market information I have compiled.

Box after box checked, the play here is Colorado St at 7, 6.5, and even 6 (+6 plus money suggested). I had evidence this market could come off of 6 to 6.5 but I'm not so sure I can make that case at this writing. I consider 6.5 a viable bet and some are still out there.

Good Luck.

 

[KVB]

I have another divergence in the forecasts and we've just seen a meaningful market move.

The stacking percentages Forecast has Boston College winning with 34 or 31 points to to Syracuse's 13 or 14 points.

The non predictive public gauge has Syracuse winning 28-21.

I mentioned elsewhere that this play is in the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket at Boston College +135 and +125.

I did not identify this game as a candidate to trade an open pregame position if Boston College takes the lead. If they take the lead, the plan is to sit on the equity.

Good Luck.

 

[jjgold]

If you’re not using Dunklel ratings, you’re jerk off

 

[KVB]

If you’re not using Dunklel ratings, you’re jerk off

What the fukk do the ratings of dark German lagers got to do with anything? Some are good, some are bad, but they're all dark German lagers.

Gold,...

 

[pete0]

Funds didn't do so well last night. Only think I won last night was Wake Spread.

The stacking percentages forecast has Colorado State winning the game outright with 28 points to Wyoming's 21 or 20 points, with equal enough probability.

The non predictive public gauge has Wyoming winning 28-20.

The line has moved from 7 in some spots to 6, towards the forecast. The Total in the market appears low, when compared to the Forecasts.

This game checks off the boxes, of which I won't go into all of them. I have bought since the OPEN and have +7 here, and +6.5, and may be taking +6 at plus money before the day is over.

This game is in the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund and while we can all acknowledge it's tough to play in Wyoming, where there will be some wind, coming down from 15 mph at game time heading in one direction at War Memorial stadium, I will acknowledge that there is come evidence this line opened too high as some market pressure is Wyoming to respond to a poor performance last week. This created value on Colorado State.

I've talked about this back in FlyMe and have mentioned it at BMR recently as well. It's one metric, tallied up across muiltiple metrics, that once massaged to apply, I am willing to say could be a factor in the markets. We believe it was here.

I've often said that edges are found on the road these days, and with road dogs, hence the Fund name. Expect to hear more of that in the future from me.

Not only was the line too high for Wyoming, but this Total, at this level, combined with that 7 and 6.5 spread, making a compelling probabilistic trigger that is built into forecast adjustments. It's Wyoming, it's going to be a grind. I can further adjust this forecast with contrarian adjustments from market information I have compiled.

Box after box checked, the play here is Colorado St at 7, 6.5, and even 6 (+6 plus money suggested). I had evidence this market could come off of 6 to 6.5 but I'm not so sure I can make that case at this writing. I consider 6.5 a viable bet and some are still out there.

Good Luck.

Thanks for ur insight @KVB

As u know already, i put a blindfold on & pick dog ML everygame except Saturdays.

 

[jjgold]

KVB you have gone bad

 

[KVB]

KVB you have gone bad

BC moneyline very much in play here. Colo St. spread in trouble, it's tough in Wyoming.

It's a grind, Gold, but it would be profit tonight, if it works out with BC.

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has 17 plays tomorrow. That's 17 small underdog moneyline plays. That is a market tracking Fund that oscillates with give and take.

The KVB Visiting Dog Fund has 3 plays. Anything I post is a past post but since there are only 3, I'll post the spread plays...

Illinois +3, also in the UPSET Basket at +115.
Zona St +11
Charlotte +4, also in the UPSET Basket at +165

Good Luck