It hits differently when you do your own research. When you made the claims about the poor performance in the past, I can't recall any type of long term analysis or accuracy stats shared so maybe it wasn't as convincing as it could have been.
The Falcons had at least a 99 percent chance to win Super Bowl LI on 20 different occasions. And yet, the Patriots left Houston world champs. Here's how the comeback, and the collapse, went down.
www.espn.com
"The Pats pieced together incredible play with fortuitous bounces and impeccable timing to overcome a Falcons team that had a 99.8 percent shot of claiming its first Super Bowl with 21 minutes to go."
Another article says
"After the game, ESPN modeler Brian Burke admitted on Twitter that giving the Falcons victory a projection of 99.8% might have been a bit steep and oddsmakers seemed to feel the Falcons were closer to 91% given the +1000 odds for the Patriots midway through the third quarter."
Greatest comeback ever is a better selling story than "our model is inaccurate"