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purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
233
Are we really surprised?

They're win probablities, especially in game, are horrendous, regardless of who gives them the info. Then again, they all are.

It hits differently when you do your own research. When you made the claims about the poor performance in the past, I can't recall any type of long term analysis or accuracy stats shared so maybe it wasn't as convincing as it could have been.


"The Pats pieced together incredible play with fortuitous bounces and impeccable timing to overcome a Falcons team that had a 99.8 percent shot of claiming its first Super Bowl with 21 minutes to go."

Another article says

"After the game, ESPN modeler Brian Burke admitted on Twitter that giving the Falcons victory a projection of 99.8% might have been a bit steep and oddsmakers seemed to feel the Falcons were closer to 91% given the +1000 odds for the Patriots midway through the third quarter."

Greatest comeback ever is a better selling story than "our model is inaccurate"
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,566
It hits differently when you do your own research. When you made the claims about the poor performance in the past, I can't recall any type of long term analysis or accuracy stats shared so maybe it wasn't as convincing as it could have been.


"The Pats pieced together incredible play with fortuitous bounces and impeccable timing to overcome a Falcons team that had a 99.8 percent shot of claiming its first Super Bowl with 21 minutes to go."

Another article says

"After the game, ESPN modeler Brian Burke admitted on Twitter that giving the Falcons victory a projection of 99.8% might have been a bit steep and oddsmakers seemed to feel the Falcons were closer to 91% given the +1000 odds for the Patriots midway through the third quarter."

Greatest comeback ever is a better selling story than "our model is inaccurate"

 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,391

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
233
JLH back in the day …
View attachment 40116

she used to be a beauty

dgnbx46-cbf1639d-868a-4ce0-a83b-189a188deda3.jpg
 

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
233
Might get this printed on a shirt.

Might even make it a BMR tag line or whatever that is.

I wish I could make this a KVB quote, but it belongs to grapes.

No doubt I will use it in quotes and credit it @purplegrape more than a once in the future.

I think you said it first in your "life story" post back in the day. You mentioned the importance of doing your own research. Exit strategy adherence, you don't have to go around the block to get next door, there were some good lessons. Don't credit me on anything.

sacha-baron-cohen-respect.gif
 
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