Florida State under tremendous pressure to get a win here.
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket, on a solid run this season, is on the Cal moneyline.
I could write pages of market analysis here but know that I'm looking over my shoulder on this Fund. That was a mistake last time in DDD's thread when I was sure those last for plays wouldn't profit. But they did, and went 2-2.
All that said, this a game where we see a higher probability of being able to get both teams as underdogs with an opening position of Cal moneyline at the current levels in the +120's, especially at +127 and +128.
As far as the game playing out if this position outside the UPSET Basket can't be closed then it's likely the Florida St blowout that shouldn't be overreacted to. Whether they win by 1 or 50, the analysis remains true. I am weaving a few things I've written in the past at BMR here. I've mentioned a different set of probabilites at stake and they are in this game as well.
I should mention evidence that represents headwinds to the trading strategy and should not be overlooked. Last night we had some udnerdogs, including a big upset as mentioned (past posting) in charliebrown's thread.
One clue to what was happening there, last night, is in the market analysis. In at least one game, because that's all it takes, we saw Nebraska, the 10 point favorite, being offered at plus money on the spread, inviting scalpers and traders. There was a reason they wanted money on Nebraska spread. Nebraska then lost the game outright.
Those were two top 25 teams, this matters as this increases the profile. Even on Top 25 team losing as the 10 point spread is notable.
With that background know that we are seeing Florida St -3 being offered at plus money. Remember this is a market of give and take and once the market gives on Friday night with two top teams at better than +300 does it give again the next day in a situation like this? It might. We are dealing with probablities here.
But history shows that trying to go back to the well again on the same type of market analysis is costly.
So once again, I look over my shoulder with the UPSET Basket and am playing a few different predicitve probablities here. There is one involving the UPSET Basket itself, one involving the likelihood of Cal taking the lead and Florida St LIVE as a dog comes back which leads to the final probability based on market analysis that Florida St would not fail on the spread here.
So we start with
CAL +127, +126, +124, and +123 in the UPSET Basket (those numbers fill the position)
Open a position on Cal +127 LIVE with the intent to sell back if they take the lead.
As always, looking over my shoulder here as the UPSET Basket has had a quite a run and a small pullback would not be unreasonable here. I do think, with the market analysis, that Florida St may finally come through for bettors, they've had a rough go this year. But when you threaten to sue the NCAA over playoff considerations, these things can happen to your school.
It is my hope that Cal can flip the odds first to overcome those probabities and get us a deal on an inflated Florida St.
Let me know if you like this kind of analysis, I'm thinking about getting back into public plays and market analysis.
Also...
October 4th...
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket, on a solid run this season, is on the Cal moneyline.
I could write pages of market analysis here but know that I'm looking over my shoulder on this Fund. That was a mistake last time in DDD's thread when I was sure those last for plays wouldn't profit. But they did, and went 2-2.
All that said, this a game where we see a higher probability of being able to get both teams as underdogs with an opening position of Cal moneyline at the current levels in the +120's, especially at +127 and +128.
As far as the game playing out if this position outside the UPSET Basket can't be closed then it's likely the Florida St blowout that shouldn't be overreacted to. Whether they win by 1 or 50, the analysis remains true. I am weaving a few things I've written in the past at BMR here. I've mentioned a different set of probabilites at stake and they are in this game as well.
I should mention evidence that represents headwinds to the trading strategy and should not be overlooked. Last night we had some udnerdogs, including a big upset as mentioned (past posting) in charliebrown's thread.
One clue to what was happening there, last night, is in the market analysis. In at least one game, because that's all it takes, we saw Nebraska, the 10 point favorite, being offered at plus money on the spread, inviting scalpers and traders. There was a reason they wanted money on Nebraska spread. Nebraska then lost the game outright.
Those were two top 25 teams, this matters as this increases the profile. Even on Top 25 team losing as the 10 point spread is notable.
With that background know that we are seeing Florida St -3 being offered at plus money. Remember this is a market of give and take and once the market gives on Friday night with two top teams at better than +300 does it give again the next day in a situation like this? It might. We are dealing with probablities here.
But history shows that trying to go back to the well again on the same type of market analysis is costly.
So once again, I look over my shoulder with the UPSET Basket and am playing a few different predicitve probablities here. There is one involving the UPSET Basket itself, one involving the likelihood of Cal taking the lead and Florida St LIVE as a dog comes back which leads to the final probability based on market analysis that Florida St would not fail on the spread here.
So we start with
CAL +127, +126, +124, and +123 in the UPSET Basket (those numbers fill the position)
Open a position on Cal +127 LIVE with the intent to sell back if they take the lead.
As always, looking over my shoulder here as the UPSET Basket has had a quite a run and a small pullback would not be unreasonable here. I do think, with the market analysis, that Florida St may finally come through for bettors, they've had a rough go this year. But when you threaten to sue the NCAA over playoff considerations, these things can happen to your school.
It is my hope that Cal can flip the odds first to overcome those probabities and get us a deal on an inflated Florida St.
Let me know if you like this kind of analysis, I'm thinking about getting back into public plays and market analysis.
Also...
October 4th...
