Forget The Spa

[rdalert447]

Played a couple today:

Race 5
$20 win #5 Northern Chill 4-1
$1 P3 5/ALL/8
$1 P3 ALL/2,4/8
Blair barn is hot right now. Had 2 wins at Ellis Saturday, one place at Colonial yesterday. Pick 3s are me trying to be alive to an Ochoa bomb in the 7th.

Race 7
$20 win #8 Deliziosa 20-1
$2 exbx 8-9
.50c tri 8,9/ALL/8,9
$1 P3 8/ALL/11
My man Ochoa hasn’t detonated his yearly bomb at Colonial yet. This horse has shown some flashes here and will be ignored in the tote.

Risked $77, -$288 for meet

 

[rdalert447]

Added a bet in Race 4. 5 mtp:

$20 win #2 Grey Shadow 4-1
$1 P3 2/5/ALL
Angel M horses haven’t fared as good as I hoped so far. However, he has been using some no-name jockey up to this point. This one gets Karamanos out of the blue, and he’s one of the better jocks at Colonial. Maybe that’s an indication that the horse is well-meant?

 

[sunshine11]

Shadow $2.80 show. Race 5 only 5 horses. Lame.
Longacres mile had 12 horses yesterday and it was a thrilling race.

 

[sunshine11]

Chill $3.20 show

 

[sunshine11]

Baby blocks 2 win 100 place

 

[sunshine11]

#3 72-1

 

[jjgold]

The only success I’ve had as far as break even long-term are getting your money back on second and third at TVG or Twins Spires $10 max wager

 

[rdalert447]

#3 72-1

That was WILD

 

[rdalert447]

No dice for old rdalert.

-$392 for meet

 

[rdalert447]

Race 9
$20 win #11 Lady Zeta 12-1
$2 exbx 2-11
.50c tri 2,11/ALL/2,11
$2 DD 2,11/2
$1 P3 11/2/ALL
Trainer Ness juices wherever he goes, wins wherever he goes. Hasn’t started many here yet, but if he shows up, be sure he’s juicing.

Risked $48, -$392

 

[rdalert447]

Race 9
$20 win #11 Lady Zeta 12-1
$2 exbx 2-11
.50c tri 2,11/ALL/2,11
$2 DD 2,11/2
$1 P3 11/2/ALL
Trainer Ness juices wherever he goes, wins wherever he goes. Hasn’t started many here yet, but if he shows up, be sure he’s juicing.

Risked $48, -$392

Ness used the subpar juice on this one.

-$440

 

[rdalert447]

Playing a couple of Bowersock trained entrants in the last two. She’s a trainer that I never bet in Tampa, but she kicks my a$$ all the time.

Race 11
$20 win #2 Awesome Fantasy 5-1
$2 DD 2/1,4,6

Race 12
$20 Win #1 Lady’s Chant 12-1

Risked $46

 

[rdalert447]

Bombs are detonating and I can’t get a taste!

 

[rdalert447]

Added an ex key box in the finale

$2 exbx 1/4,6

 

[sunshine11]

Are you sure you know what you’re doing? Favorites win like 67% of the time.

 

[str]

Are you sure you know what you’re doing? Favorites win like 67% of the time.

It's more like approximately 33% of the time.

1-2 shots or less are approx. 67% of the time.

At the end of the day, without sorting through a true favorite and a phony favorite there is no way to make money playing favorites exclusively.
You best chance is to try and identify a false or bad favorite and find a horse that can beat the over bet horse. It really is race to race though.
Try and find the race flow, set up the field and try and isolate a solo speed or a solid closer when there are 3 or more speeds. That is one of a thousand different variables but it is a good starting point.

GL.

 

[fiftycint]

Headed to the Spa for The Travers.Sammy let me know where you gonna be

 

[rdalert447]

Are you sure you know what you’re doing? Favorites win like 67% of the time.

You bet show and claimed you got backed off at a racetrack.

But full transparency, I haven’t posted a winning meet since I started at BMR.

 

[rdalert447]

-$494 for meet.

But Ochoa has three tomorrow…..

 

[rdalert447]

Headed to the Spa for The Travers.Sammy let me know where you gonna be

Going Travers Day? Man it’s gonna be a zoo!