Lets have another winning day today.
1191-1072 YTD/ (587-533 Top plays) Umpire Overs=123-87 Umpire Under=11-8
All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Reds-102
⭐️Mets-1-128
⭐️Oakland-124
⭐️Guardians-103
⭐️Detroit+125
⭐️Reds/Nats Over 8-105 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Dbacks-130
⭐️Cardinals+130 (GAME 1)
⭐️Texas+103
⭐️Giants-1-128
⭐️Boston+122
⭐️Royals-1-150
⭐️Cards/Braves OVER 8.5-115 (Umpire Over)
⭐️Twins-117
Pirates+1.5-113 (Full game)
Boston+114 (F5)
Detroit/Toronto Over 7.5-115 (Umpire Over)
Dbags/Cubs Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
Tampa+140
Seattle-110
Oakland/LAA Over 8-125
Texas-107 (F5)
Cards/Braves Over 8.5-115 (GAME 2)
Royals-0.5-132 (F5)
Mets-0.5-112 (F5)
Pirates+135 (F5)
Guardians/Padres Over 7.5-112
Milwaukee/Minnesota Over 7.5-115
Mets/Marlins Over 8-125
Tampa/NYY Under 8.5-110 (Umpire under)
***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Reds/Nats Over 8 w/Jansen Visconti who is 11-7 Over on 9.39 Runs. Going back to 2018 he's been just under 9 runs or over 9 runs every year on a typical 63% strike call and 2.5 SO/BB ratio. His run impact is near 1.5 per game and as last night i had this game at 9 runs and now will add another 1 run with the umpire. The over is 6-1 for the Reds last 7 while 7-4 last 11 for nats and 7-2 in gore starts. Gore is also 0-3 with a terrible 7.23 ERA last 5 starts, while Lodolo is posting a 6.9 ERA in his last 3, these problems dont correct in one start, typically, I expect run chances to be plenty today.
***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Cards/Braves OVER 8.5 with Larry Vanover who is rated 4.29 in the extreme hitter category, due to his low strike call and more walks. This year is more aytpical for him as he's avg just under 9 runs on a 2.4 SO/BB ratio, while last year he was 9-3 Over, on 11.6 runs and a 61.5% strike call with an insane low 1.9 SO/BB. The Over is 9-3 in Cards last 12 games, and 4-1 when Gray starts. I had this game at around 9 runs and could easily see it go over that, seeing that Vanover's Run impact is around 1.5 per game. It is a top play.
***3rd Umpire Over is Detroit/Toronto Over 7.5 with Nestor Ceja who is 9-5 Over on 9.4 runs and 64% strikes with a 2.7 SO/BB. He's a newer ump who's leaned slightly towards the hitter most years, so it's not a strong over umpire, however this year his games are producing higher numbers and more overs, and combined with both bullpens in bad shape as the Tigers are 18th with a 4.11 ERA whilst Blue Jays are 29th with a 4.88 ERA, and Toronto's starter Kikuchi always prone to a big inning scoring wise with a 4.42 ERA makes this a stronger choice. He's also posting a 6.00 ERA in 5 starts against this tigers ballclub, and a 7.81 ERA in his last 6 starts show that he is a gas can of a starter these days.
***4th Umpire Over is Dbacks/Cubs Over 8 with Alfonso Marquez, rated at 4.36, the most extreme hitter friendly umpire due to his typical 61-64% strike call, low 2 SO/BB ratio and avg years btw 10-13 runs per game. This year is anomoly for his being just under 9 runs. Working in favor of the over, is the fact that both pitchers have struggled of late with terrible ERA's-Gallen a 10.66 ERA in 6 starts, Hendricks 5.03 in 5 starts, and the dbacks games have been high scoring of late, 11-3 over last 14, while cubs are 3-1 last 4 over. Run chances should be plentiful throughout for both.
***1st Umpire UNDER is TB/NYY Under 8.5 W/Manny Gonzales, who is 10-7 UNDER, with a 7.5 runs per game avg. Day games can be barron for runs quite often. Tampa's Bradley comes in scorching hot at 3-0, 1.9 ERA in last 6 starts, and against these yanks gave up only 1 run in 6IP, so i epect him to keep the yanks off the bases, while tampa gets just enough to win, i could see a 4-2 type game today.
NBA SL-4-4 Fri (Cash top 3), 4-3 Thurs (Cash top 2)
⭐️Wizards-4
⭐️Atlanta+3
⭐️Mavs ML-112
Kings ML-115
Wizards/Bucks Over 184
Cavs+3
LA Lakers+3.5
