Hoops Plays

[rip007]

dammit krit.. i have SAC ML in a couple of parlays

i hope we both win .

Dude, stay away from those, the house has too big a 'hold' it's hard enough to win one game

 

[rip007]

Books are' risk averse' and these types of moneyline drops shows this

 

[krit]

Books are' risk averse' and these types of moneyline drops shows this

Yeah Wolves got hammered late. Similar to yesterday, and they beat GS.

 

[rip007]

Definitely an important component that people overlook, anything 20 cents or more is worth a look, then you gotta watch for' late buyback' on the spread,.......like competing against a 'chessmaster'.who has all the moves, and the bluffs

 

[pete0]

Definitely an important component that people overlook, anything 20 cents or more is worth a look, then you gotta watch for' late buyback' on the spread,.......like competing against a 'chessmaster'.who has all the moves, and the bluffs

20cents be4 tip off on the ML by BMaker u mean ? what exactly r we looking for here compared to spread.

I like to analyze my L's. u guys input is much appreciated!
i wish i saw ur posts be4 i locked in bulls.
and the idea of how early and late movement is all that matters, everything else in between is a fade if anything. - is interesting.

i'm trying to understand this logic here, sorry i'm confused ,
cuz like i mentioned earlier, if the chessmaster has all the moves, bluffs and real... how exactly would we know what the master is siding with ?
so a 20 cents / + late move , (while maybe Pinny is juicing the other side.)
then the late move is an auto play ?

Im trying to understand, how u and @krit exactly deciphered to not just take a look the Wolves, but to make a definitive play ?

 

[pete0]

Yeah Wolves got hammered late. Similar to yesterday, and they beat GS.

sure, Wolves got hammered late. as i'm sure in many other scenarios on a team @ GS.

but look at GS home record. how can one just go against that... lol

and look at how good SAC Kings r this year... esp. at home. and healthy.

maybe fortune just favors the brave here..

 

[krit]

Use a site to track line movement. BMR’s is really good, I set my default book to pinny as I use them as a reference. Look at the image below, for some reason they cut out 6:50pm pst to 7:10pm pst, but the line dropped even more. Think it closed at Kings -190 and actually got hit down to -4.5. Even without that, look how much TWolves got hammered. That late and on a dog is sharp money. Ain’t no regular Joe public hitting a dog with money like that right before tip.

My best advice. If you see a dog ml and spread drop late, that’s the side to be on more times than not. Hopefully this helps, and don’t hesitate to ask me any questions.

 

[rip007]

Nice hit bro !
Peteo, the line history( illustrated above) is where it's at, .....you can also find moneyline/spread conversion charts online, trends and angles, yeah, would take a look, but you judge every game as a separate animal..,..nothing wins all the time, just have to observe using the tools given,

 

[rip007]

Buyback means someone of something is triggering the line to tick back up throughout the line history at certain price points....but the moneyline history is telling, books don't like to pay out anymore plus money than they have too Wolves money came in and forced them to adjust, I believe Pinny has a 'delayed feed' for non customers which sucks

 

[pete0]

Dude, stay away from those, the house has too big a 'hold' it's hard enough to win one game

side question. regarding the parlays.

so what if u like a team to win for sure, but dont want to take the spread , say 4-7 pts. ?

 

[rip007]

Can't help with those, only thing I would suggest is read up on 'correlated parlays'

 

[rip007]

side question. regarding the parlays.

so what if u like a team to win for sure, but dont want to take the spread , say 4-7 pts. ?

I see that guys play them, at different sites, but the ml payouts vs the spread on them seem much lower, which makes sense

 

[krit]

side question. regarding the parlays.

so what if u like a team to win for sure, but dont want to take the spread , say 4-7 pts. ?

No idea, I barely ever play parlays. They always look good up until the game ends. Upsets happen all the time.

 

[JDS]

No idea, I barely ever play parlays. They always look good up until the game ends. Upsets happen all the time.

Yeah, I like to stay away from parlays as well. What you just described is exactly how I felt when I lost this one, when San Diego State beat Alabama in the sweet 16. The biggest favorite lost lol

 

[krit]

Yeah, I like to stay away from parlays as well. What you just described is exactly how I felt when I lost this one, when San Diego State beat Alabama in the sweet 16. The biggest favorite lost lol

View attachment 10349

Oh man that blows, did you hedge?

 

[JDS]

Oh man that blows, did you hedge?

No my bankroll too small in my opinion to make a hedge offer. I had multi games going on at once, so there really wasn’t a perfect spot for it anyways.

 

[jjgold]

That’s true to hedge need a big bankroll

 

[krit]

Hawks -3

 

[krit]

Haven't totaled in a couple days so want to do that now.

2-2 on Sunday
1-0 yesterday
44-33 total

 

[pete0]

Use a site to track line movement. BMR’s is really good, I set my default book to pinny as I use them as a reference. Look at the image below, for some reason they cut out 6:50pm pst to 7:10pm pst, but the line dropped even more. Think it closed at Kings -190 and actually got hit down to -4.5. Even without that, look how much TWolves got hammered. That late and on a dog is sharp money. Ain’t no regular Joe public hitting a dog with money like that right before tip.

My best advice. If you see a dog ml and spread drop late, that’s the side to be on more times than not. Hopefully this helps, and don’t hesitate to ask me any questions.

View attachment 10337

ok so take, these 2 games tonite for example.

OKC game tonite for example... the same thing happening.. i'm not betting it tho, since ... idk dosent seem like a comfortable bet. even 1H speaking. i know Shai is out. but we know how it goes , 1st gm , star player sits.... and line is still like 9-10... idk.


& the memphis Game, except the line seems wayyy too low , 8 ?!, i mean look at the away and home records... , again.. star player, morant. out. BUT STIL, 13-24 & 32-5 . with a line of 8, is this real life ??

Edit: was quickly typing lol.. spelling etc.