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krit

krit

Joined
Feb 26, 2023
Messages
711
I usually don't have a lot of free time, but thought I'd just rant and share some thoughts on my process in betting.

In NBA, almost never fade teams that are sitting star players. See today, Irving and Doncic sit, Mavs cover. Giannis is sitting and Bucks currently winning. Haliburton and Turner sit and Pacers cover.

Pay attention to early and late line movement. That's really the only line movement that matters. Sharps hit early and late. Everything in the middle is public. If anything, fade middle of the day line movement.

If a line looks to good to be true, there is usually a reason for it. I always use this rule of thumb, swing the line by 6 points the other way and flip the home and away teams and see if the line looks about right. For example, Celtics were -5.5 on the road today against ATL, that was definitely a Boston line, they would have been about -11 in Boston.

Take dogs and stay away from favorites, they cover a lot.
 

pete0

pete0

Joined
Jan 24, 2023
Messages
2,100
I usually don't have a lot of free time, but thought I'd just rant and share some thoughts on my process in betting.

In NBA, almost never fade teams that are sitting star players. See today, Irving and Doncic sit, Mavs cover. Giannis is sitting and Bucks currently winning. Haliburton and Turner sit and Pacers cover.

Pay attention to early and late line movement. That's really the only line movement that matters. Sharps hit early and late. Everything in the middle is public. If anything, fade middle of the day line movement.

If a line looks to good to be true, there is usually a reason for it. I always use this rule of thumb, swing the line by 6 points the other way and flip the home and away teams and see if the line looks about right. For example, Celtics were -5.5 on the road today against ATL, that was definitely a Boston line, they would have been about -11 in Boston.

Take dogs and stay away from favorites, they cover a lot.

krit!!

this is what i LOVE to see!

i posted something similar about the injuries angle somewhere.

whenever a star sits, they're super undervalued and cover, usually.
team A faces team B again on a b2b. usually the same team never covers the 2nd time, regardless of location.

MUCH respect 4 ur perspective and sharing bro :bowdown:
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,640
I usually don't have a lot of free time, but thought I'd just rant and share some thoughts on my process in betting.

In NBA, almost never fade teams that are sitting star players. See today, Irving and Doncic sit, Mavs cover. Giannis is sitting and Bucks currently winning. Haliburton and Turner sit and Pacers cover.

Pay attention to early and late line movement. That's really the only line movement that matters. Sharps hit early and late. Everything in the middle is public. If anything, fade middle of the day line movement.

If a line looks to good to be true, there is usually a reason for it. I always use this rule of thumb, swing the line by 6 points the other way and flip the home and away teams and see if the line looks about right. For example, Celtics were -5.5 on the road today against ATL, that was definitely a Boston line, they would have been about -11 in Boston.

Take dogs and stay away from favorites, they cover a lot.
Krit knows his shit, these are great tips to use for basketball especially. Iā€™m glad you made BMR your main stay as a forum to display your experience & knowledge in this industry.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,061
I usually don't have a lot of free time, but thought I'd just rant and share some thoughts on my process in betting.

In NBA, almost never fade teams that are sitting star players. See today, Irving and Doncic sit, Mavs cover. Giannis is sitting and Bucks currently winning. Haliburton and Turner sit and Pacers cover.

Pay attention to early and late line movement. That's really the only line movement that matters. Sharps hit early and late. Everything in the middle is public. If anything, fade middle of the day line movement.

If a line looks to good to be true, there is usually a reason for it. I always use this rule of thumb, swing the line by 6 points the other way and flip the home and away teams and see if the line looks about right. For example, Celtics were -5.5 on the road today against ATL, that was definitely a Boston line, they would have been about -11 in Boston.

Take dogs and stay away from favorites, they cover a lot.
Great insight Krit.
Thanks.
 

Pimike

Pimike

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
9,093
Most guys get burried and have no large bankroll for baseball.

then claim they hate baseball.

no they hate being broke so donā€™t even give themselves a chance to make money and learn to love baseball as a money maker.

thatā€™s my thinking.
 
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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,061
Most guys get burried and have no large bankroll for baseball.

then claim they hate baseball.

no they hate being broke so donā€™t even give themselves a chance to make money and learn to love baseball as a money maker.

thatā€™s my thinking.
It is un-American to hate baseball.
I love baseball. I watch a game (or two) almost every day.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,061
How did you fair last year with your baseball action ? Were you profitable Tanko ā€¦ šŸ§
Yes. A lot of work for small return.

308-211 59.3%
2.3% ROI
+18 units

I was really pounding out plays last year. Avg 4-5 per day.

It was a rocky year. I lost 20 units in July and then won 38 units in the first half of August. Went to last place in Best Bet thread back up to 1st in 3-4 weeks.
 
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JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,640
Yes. A lot of work for small return.

308-211 59.3%
2.3% ROI
+18 units

I was really pounding out plays last year. Avg 4-5 per day.

It was a rocky year. I lost 20 units in July and then won 38 units in the first half of August. Went to last place in Best Bet thread back up to 1st in 3-4 weeks.
Guy overall that was a solid year. I hope you create a thread with your picks like you have for other sports. I would look forward to that everyday during the year.
 

krit

krit

Joined
Feb 26, 2023
Messages
711
I got a lot of respect for anyone who grinds MLB. I stay away, just too many games and to be honest I donā€™t follow it enough.

I am excited about my Mariners. I try to go to a handful of games every season. Donā€™t think they can close the gap with the Astros but probably be somewhere around 90 wins and another playoff appearance.
 
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