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I Notice We Do Not Have A Lot Of West Coast Posters

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
On paper they are for sure the play & that line is stretching. I’m sure KVB is seeing a contrarian edge for the Kings with the betting markets would be my guess.

Yeah, actually the line may have moved but it’s not stretching like it could.

Warriors are under a lot of pressure to bounce back.

Using my forecasts, and market metrics I think a late Philly cover of the spread can lead to Sac.

I also think these 2’s out there should become 2 1/2’s across the board.

Warriors won’t be easy and perhaps getting both teams as dogs is on the cards here. Can get Sac pregame, but the Warriors will surely be a rip off during the game.
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,498
Yeah, actually the line may have moved but it’s not stretching like it could.

Warriors are under a lot of pressure to bounce back.

Using my forecasts, and market metrics I think a late Philly cover of the spread can lead to Sac.

I also think these 2’s out there should become 2 1/2’s across the board.

Warriors won’t be easy and perhaps getting both teams as dogs is on the cards here. Can get Sac pregame, but the Warriors will surely be a rip off during the game.
Damn I’m glad you’re over here now, I love to hear your pregame forecast & metrics associated with how other games finish. It’s next level handicapping IMO.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
Well, I wasn’t the only one thinking a late Philly cover could lead to Sacramento. Line now 2 across the board. Some books will exploit the late favorite betting public here and push back to 2 1/2. It’s best to note those books if it happens.
 
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DiggityDaggityDo

DiggityDaggityDo

Joined
Oct 30, 2021
Messages
26,145
Yeah, actually the line may have moved but it’s not stretching like it could.

Warriors are under a lot of pressure to bounce back.

Using my forecasts, and market metrics I think a late Philly cover of the spread can lead to Sac.

I also think these 2’s out there should become 2 1/2’s across the board.

Warriors won’t be easy and perhaps getting both teams as dogs is on the cards here. Can get Sac pregame, but the Warriors will surely be a rip off during the game.
Sticking to my one and only bet.

1681783829885.jpeg

I actually got them at -113 but when I entered it into the BMR tracker the tracker showed BM -115

🤷‍♂️

That actually happens often, but you can’t enter custom bets on the tracker, so gotta go with what’s available.

Thats why sometime I choose a book that I don’t even use, because it’s closer to the line that I actually got.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
Well, I wasn’t the only one thinking a late Philly cover could lead to Sacramento. Line now 2 across the board. Some books will exploit the late favorite betting public here and push back to 2 1/2. It’s best to note those books if it happens.
The market generated some action here, BM really generated some when dropping to 1, then taking that Warrior bounce to 2.5 before settling at 2.

I think there was quite a handle on this game and that definitely lends to the Kings. Something to think about if LIVE trading.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
What else are you holding on this game?

Or is this the first bet?

I have Kings +2.5 (-105).

I did try to get Kings +125 pregame earlier, at several places, but actually go pinched out and couldn't get down.

That spread bet and your ML bet could both win, so no mud for you.

But that latest LIVE trade, since I might not sell back, means in the mud you should go.

Except I don't know if I can do that yet... :lmao:

:an_fight:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
....Warriors won’t be easy and perhaps getting both teams as dogs is on the cards here. Can get Sac pregame, but the Warriors will surely be a rip off during the game....

Here come the Kings but, narturally, it's so hard to get the Warriors LIVE as dogs in this situation this early in the game.

The market just won't over react our way for a decent shot at selling some or all of the +170. Kings need a good lead for that.

:popcorn:
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,498
Here come the Kings but, narturally, it's so hard to get the Warriors LIVE as dogs in this situation this early in the game.

The market just won't over react our way for a decent shot at selling some or all of the +170. Kings need a good lead for that.

:popcorn:
Let’s see 👀
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
Even with a 6 point lead, the LIVE markets just won't deal the Warriors as dogs.

It took al the way to 8 or 9 points, but it's there now.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,293
Almost had Warriors +192 LIVE to close out that trade, keeping a position on the Kings.

But BM baited and switched me. Those fukkers. Tried sell me a +153.

:+whipping
 
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