I'm probably the last guy you should listen to, but certain big favs just seem unbeatable. I went on a decent run myself (most of the picks in your 2k contest) betting these.
For every Yankees loss (-330, wow!) there have been 5-6 winners like -230 Padres for me yesterday.
I know most pros just don't bet anything that's 'higher than x' but, IMHO, those pros miss out on some decent value.
GL going forward JDS