JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays

[Tanko]

2-2 night as I hit my Holiday o4.5 assists and White o2.5 threes made props but lose on the total as Dallas was almost never in this game except for early in the first Quarter. Also lost on Luka points +assists as Luka put up 30 trying to bring Dallas back but only dished out one assist because he had to score so much.

As for my thoughts on the game itself as well as the rest of the series I think Dallas is in trouble if Porzingis plays like this the whole series. He is an X Factor that made the difference for Boston this season and it showed in game 1. The thing is I don't know if he keeps this up the whole series. Dallas will make big adjustments with two days off to prepare for game 2 and one of them has to be what to do about Porzingis when Boston has the ball. I still think this series is a long way from being over but Dallas has to win game 2 imo or else this will be a 5 game series imo with Boston winning comfortably because they have more talent than Dallas does.

Playoff record: 31-39 -12.37 Units

That was a weird game last night. It was nothing like I expected.
I'm confused as hell now on how to read this series after that display.

Porzingis effect was huge.

 

[BMR Genie]

Porzingis finals MVP!

 

[Jrgum3]

Porzingis finals MVP!

I did say in the MVP thread that Porzingis was a wild card in that market. He went from around +5000 pre Finals to the third choice on Boston at +500. I still think Brown and Tatum are more likely but if Porzingis plays like this they'll give it to him because he dominated.

 

[Jrgum3]

6/9/24
Dallas Mavericks +7 -106 1.06u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks ML +220 0.5u to win 1.1u

Ok so this is a day early but I figure I might as well do my write up now for the game tomorrow night. Dallas was manhandled in game 1 we all saw it and came away very impressed with Boston's dominance. I expect game 2 to be a lot different and closer at the very least. Dallas is going to make adjustments that will enable them to stay competitive with Boston so I at least see this as being too many points for Boston to be laying especially since they tend let down in game 2 and that was against inferior opponents. I don't consider Dallas to be that much worse than Boston and they're certainly better than the competition Boston faced in the Eastern conference playoffs. Also I look for Dallas to shoot better and be way more efficient offensively in this game especially Kyrie Irving who has to play better for them to win.

I see this being a close game going into the 4th Quarter and usually that's when Dallas shines because they have two guys in Luka and Kyrie that can make clutch shots to close out games. That's why I took a shot at the ML because I don't think Boston is just going to cruise here to another victory and Dallas has started slow in every series before making necessary adjustments and bouncing back strong.

 

[Jrgum3]

0-1-1 tonight as I was fortunate Dallas didn't foul at the end of the game and I bet it early so I got +7 instead of +6.5 where it closed at. Dallas played well but it's not looking good and Luka isn't enough to overcome Boston's depth. He played incredible tonight but he doesn't have enough help for Dallas to win this series. They could make this interesting at home but it's going to take everybody playing well and I'm not sure they will even at home.

Playoff record: 31-40-1 -12.87 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

6/12/24
Dallas Mavericks ML -135 1.35u to win 1u
Jayson Tatum o15.5 Rebounds +Assists -135 1.35u to win 1u
Dereck Lively o6.5 Rebounds +102 1u to win 1.02u

We're back at it today with three plays on the game tonight. First up I like the Mavs to get it done tonight for a few reasons. One I think if the Mavs get a game in this series and I think they do it'll be this one. They will play inspired basketball and obviously desperate basketball down 0-2 so I really expect them to play their best game of the series. The second reason I like them is they have gotten nothing from the role players outside of PJ Washington in this series but I expect the Mavericks role players to step up in this game and help out Luka who has been great in this series despite being less than 100%. Lastly I think we finally see Kyrie Irving show up in this game and have a vintage Kyrie performance that hasn't happened so far. I think he scores 25-30 points tonight and if he does that than Dallas definitely has a chance to win.

I chose to go with two player props in addition to my Dallas ML bet. First up I like Jayson Tatum to go over 15.5 Rebounds+Assists. His scoring is down in this series but what hasn't been down is his rebounding in the first two games where he has averaged 10 rebounds through two games. I think his passing has also been on display and will be again in this game because he has done a good job of getting others the ball in position to score so I'm going with his Rebounds+Assists prop over 15.5.

Next up I like Dereck Lively to post o6.5 rebounds tonight. One reason I like this is I really don't think Porzingis plays and this is a big deal for Lively because Porzingis is a tough matchup for him and as we saw in game one he got in foul trouble trying to guard Porzingis. In game 2 he was able to stay on the floor and go over 6 rebounds. I think with enough minutes he should be able to grab seven boards and it definitely helps that Porzingis might not play because to me the direct beneficiary of that will be Dereck Lively.

 

[BMR Genie]

6/12/24
Dallas Mavericks ML -135 1.35u to win 1u
Jayson Tatum o15.5 Rebounds +Assists -135 1.35u to win 1u
Dereck Lively o6.5 Rebounds +102 1u to win 1.02u

We're back at it today with three plays on the game tonight. First up I like the Mavs to get it done tonight for a few reasons. One I think if the Mavs get a game in this series and I think they do it'll be this one. They will play inspired basketball and obviously desperate basketball down 0-2 so I really expect them to play their best game of the series. The second reason I like them is they have gotten nothing from the role players outside of PJ Washington in this series but I expect the Mavericks role players to step up in this game and help out Luka who has been great in this series despite being less than 100%. Lastly I think we finally see Kyrie Irving show up in this game and have a vintage Kyrie performance that hasn't happened so far. I think he scores 25-30 points tonight and if he does that than Dallas definitely has a chance to win.

I chose to go with two player props in addition to my Dallas ML bet. First up I like Jayson Tatum to go over 15.5 Rebounds+Assists. His scoring is down in this series but what hasn't been down is his rebounding in the first two games where he has averaged 10 rebounds through two games. I think his passing has also been on display and will be again in this game because he has done a good job of getting others the ball in position to score so I'm going with his Rebounds+Assists prop over 15.5.

Next up I like Dereck Lively to post o6.5 rebounds tonight. One reason I like this is I really don't think Porzingis plays and this is a big deal for Lively because Porzingis is a tough matchup for him and as we saw in game one he got in foul trouble trying to guard Porzingis. In game 2 he was able to stay on the floor and go over 6 rebounds. I think with enough minutes he should be able to grab seven boards and it definitely helps that Porzingis might not play because to me the direct beneficiary of that will be Dereck Lively.

This is going to be a very interesting game 3.

Good luck, JR.

 

[Jrgum3]

All right we go 1-2 tonight as Boston all but put this series to bed. I also lose my pending future on Mavs in 6 which I felt was worth a shot since I had Mavs winning. I'll be the first to say I was wrong about the Celtics they learned from their playoff shortcomings and added the right pieces to build a team that will be your 2024 champion. The Mavs just don't have enough depth and I think it's clear they don't match up well with the Celtics which is why they're down 0-3 and about to get swept. It's too bad we didn't get Denver in the Finals but I don't think that would made too much of a difference other than Boston may have actually lost a game in that one because Denver matches up better with them than Dallas does. Still Boston is the best team in the NBA and it's time I give them credit.

Playoff record: 32-43-1 -15.55 Units

 

[Jrgum3]

6/14/24
Boston/Dallas u211 -110 1.1u to win 1u
PJ Washington o6.5 rebounds -135 1.35u to win 1u

My first play on tonights game is on the under 211. The total hasn't moved and so far this series has been all unders. I'm going to back it to continue because I see this game one of two ways. One Boston blows out Dallas and Dallas struggles to score in a loss that stays under this total. The second possibility is that it's close but both teams lock in defensively and make it tough to score and we see a slow it down half court game because that's how Dallas plays. They will have trouble scoring either way but they might keep it close because they're able to get stops on the other end and the under makes a lot of sense here.

My second play is on PJ Washington to once again grab at least 7 boards. He has gone over this number in all three final games and I expect that to continue here because he's been hitting the glass on both offense and defense. Both teams shoot a lot of threes so there's been more chances for potential rebounds and PJ has been grabbing his share of those so I think it's a good bet he goes over this rebound prop once again.

 

[Jrgum3]

1-1 night tonight as Dallas blows Boston out and it stays under mostly because Dallas pulled their starters at the end of the third Quarter. Unfortunately the blowout didn't help PJ Washington get over his rebound prop so I didn't have a winning night. I'm just happy there's basketball on Monday even though I'm not sure Dallas will be able to replicate this effort on the defensive end of the floor. If they do and that's a big if then the game will be close. Otherwise Boston will close it out and they will probably do so in convincing fashion.

Playoff record: 33-44-1 -15.90 units

 

[Jrgum3]

6/17/24
Dallas Mavericks +6.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
PJ Washington o11.5 points -135 1.35u to win 1u

We're back at it today with game 5 of the NBA Finals and I have a couple of plays. First I'm backing Dallas ATS tonight against the Celtics. Game 4 was sort of an anomaly for the Celtics as they gave up after the first Quarter but I think the Mavs did some good things in that game that they can carry over to game 5. I'm not sure they win this game because Boston should play better today but I think asking Boston to win by 7 or more is a little too much. I think Dallas at least keeps it close and we get a competitive game regardless of who wins so I took the points.

My second play is on PJ Washington to score at least 12 points tonight. Washington didn't play much in game 4 because he got in foul trouble and then the score got out of hand so Dallas didn't need him. However in the first three games he played at least 36 minutes and went over this number in all three games. I think if he gets the minutes and I anticipate he will because Dallas needs him to be that third scorer then he will easily go over this number so I played it.

 

[Jrgum3]

Well that was an anti climatic end to the NBA season. Boston clearly was the best team this year and it wasn't even close. Like I said earlier I wish we got Denver or Minnesota even in the Finals because I think that would have been a better series but I still think Boston would've won it just would've been more compelling. Anyway I've had fun doing this thread even though it was a losing one. I think I might do another WNBA thread or perhaps a multi sport thread with baseball or whatever I bet that day but I haven't decided since I liked doing these write ups and won't be doing any NBA til next year.

Regular Season record: 147-150-4 -18.87 Units
Playoff record: 33-47-1 -19.30 Units
Final combined record: 170-197-5 -38.17 Units

 

[BMR Genie]

Well that was an anti climatic end to the NBA season. Boston clearly was the best team this year and it wasn't even close. Like I said earlier I wish we got Denver or Minnesota even in the Finals because I think that would have been a better series but I still think Boston would've won it just would've been more compelling. Anyway I've had fun doing this thread even though it was a losing one. I think I might do another WNBA thread or perhaps a multi sport thread with baseball or whatever I bet that day but I haven't decided since I liked doing these write ups and won't be doing any NBA til next year.

Regular Season record: 147-150-4 -18.87 Units
Playoff record: 33-47-1 -19.30 Units
Final combined record: 170-197-5 -38.17 Units

You did great on this thread and I would love to see you're daily picks thread, JR. I love reading your game analysis, simple and direct.

Thank you!

 

[Jrgum3]

You did great on this thread and I would love to see you're daily picks thread, JR. I love reading your game analysis, simple and direct.

Thank you!

Thanks Genie I appreciate it! I think I'll do another thread but I probably won't write up each pick like I did with this thread. I'll just keep my record and see how I'm doing with my daily plays.

 

[BMR Genie]

Thanks Genie I appreciate it! I think I'll do another thread but I probably won't write up each pick like I did with this thread. I'll just keep my record and see how I'm doing with my daily plays.

All good, JR. We will look forward to it.

 

[Tanko]

Thanks Genie I appreciate it! I think I'll do another thread but I probably won't write up each pick like I did with this thread. I'll just keep my record and see how I'm doing with my daily plays.

Excellent work on this thread. A tough year but it was entertaining.
Thank you for the write-ups. I read this thread almost every day looking for picks.