Monday July 8th-Sunday July 14th MLB

[piratealew]

Don’t need a picture id but curious where you are in Virginia. I’m also from Virginia. Shenandoah Valley.

Midlothian, Just south of Richmond in the Brandermill/Old Hundred Mill area.

 

[inzane]

thanks Brother, you're right, just when i am getting harrassed and my family by text, email and other forms, that's where i drew the line. Let's get back to winning.

Spent the last few hours finishing up capping the matchups. Put in all my bets and was thinking of taking a day off from posting, with all the noise and crap spewing everywhere, but I know a lot of folks wait for the picks every morning and already received over 10 messages asking where today's picks are. So an hour later or so than normal but nonetheless better late than never. Good Luck tonight and hope yesterday was the beginning of another epic heater.....I always bounce back double hard after a bad night, and usually this starts another good run, with the help of the gambling gods above us, Good Luck to the good folks on the forums.

1134-1011 YTD/ (568-509 Top plays) Umpire Overs=112-80 Umpire Under=9-7

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Cardinals-1-129
⭐️Asstros-143
⭐️Seattle-134
⭐️Reds-144
⭐️Royals/Red Sux Over 8.5-129
⭐️Guardians+128
⭐️Dodgers+121
⭐️Mets-1.5-109
⭐️Padres+115
⭐️Twinks-128
⭐️Toronto/Arizona Over 9-110
⭐️Phillies-1.5-135
⭐️Yankees-115
⭐️San Dog/ATL Over 8-112
Royals-109
Pirates+1.5-130
Cards/Cubs Over 7.5-120
Milwaukee-1.5-104
Cards-0.5-119 (F5)
Astros-0.5-110 (F5)
Yankees Team Total Over 4-115
Phillies/A's Over 8.5-120
Milw/Washington Over 7.5-125
Astros/Rangers Over 7.5-115
Yankees/Baltimore Over 8.5-120
Colorado/NY Over 8-130
Seattle-0.5-105 (F5)
Cleveland/TB Over 7.5-112
Pirates+152

Good luck and I'll tail a few I like too. I really like that KC/Bost over but my site doesn't have it up yet.

I'll check back later for any ump leans...

 

[bn727]

GL PA!!!

Wow - what a small world!!

I have cousins that live in Richmond and my Godson
lives in Midlothian!!

 

[piratealew]

GL PA!!!

Wow - what a small world!!

I have cousins that live in Richmond and my Godson
lives in Midlothian!!

Small world, I still miss NC, grew up in Chapel Hill and lived in Cary/Raleigh many years but VA is growing on me. Chesterfield county especially Midlo is nice, and away from the riff raff downtown Richmond, we love the lake on Brandermill and Sunday Park. Also half way point between my parents in NC and my wife's Father in DC as he's the Dean of Public Health at George Washington, so the grandparents get to see both reguarly. GL to you too, BN!

 

[phantom888]

Taking a couple days off to clear the mind and recharging is always a good thing

The road is long and hard

 

[piratealew]

yes it is indeed, the All star break might be coming at a good time.

Ole troll Johnnyvegas keeps going like the energizer bunny, still smarting and angry after making a post going against my pick in the playoffs last year and his bet lost by 30 points. He never posted another pick since. Poor loser then joins reddit again under a new alias and starts threatening my wife and all kinds of nonsense, and banned immediately. Oh you dummies, you're too easy to spot.

***First Umpire Over is ⭐️Cards/Cubs Over 7.5 with Jansen Visconti who is 11-6 Over on 9.59 runs. Last year also was similar with over 9 runs scored a game and a 15-12 over record. His avg run impact per game is 1.5, i had this game pegged at just over 8 runs and now added one with umpire news. The over is enticing here as Hendricks has a dismal 7.5 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over last 11 starts this season, and even if he cant go, its a bullpen game, and they're not great either with a 4.13 era. St Louis is 4-0 in Gray's starts and 9 of last 13 cards games have hit the over, while in Hendricks 11 starts the over is 9-2. Cards bats have been hot so the over should hit. It is a top play,

***2nd Umpire Over isYankees/Baltimore Over 8.5 (andYanks TT Over 4) with Will Little, who is 5-2 over but whopping 11 runs per game avg on 63% strike call and a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Last year also similar 10 runs per game on 62.9% strikes , 16-13 Over record, and 2.4 SO/BB ration. 2 of the last 3 games btw these 2 have gone over with 41 runs scored in 3 games, coupled with Povich getting rocked by Oakland for 8 in 1 IP last start and has been shakey last few.
O's Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason.


***1st Umpire UNDER is Pitt/Chicago UNDER 8.5-130 with Alex Mackay, rated at 4.15 putting him in the pitcher friendly colum just under Carapazza, Eddings and Estabrook in extreme category due to his high strike call and lower walks, this year his games are 6-10 under BUT Hes calling a VERY high 65.5% strikes and an almost league high of 3.33 SO/BB Walks which is netting a low 8.5 runs, while last year saw 8.2 runs and 10-6 UNDER, on over 64% strikes. Was waiting on ump news as i had this pegged at 7 runs but could see less with this uump and matchup given that the under is 4-2 last 6 and 9-4 in Crochet's starts. Crochet is one of Chitown's up and coming aces with a 3.08 ERA, he should be able to keep the 21st ranked scoring offense Pirates at bay early and middle innings, while the white sox 30'th ranked offense can easily be silenced by a mediocre bulk reliever.Wind is also blowing in from left center at 10-15 MPH.

 

[piratealew]

yes it is indeed, the All star break might be coming at a good time.

Ole troll Johnnyvegas keeps going like the energizer bunny, still smarting and angry after making a post going against my pick in the playoffs last year and his bet lost by 30 points. He never posted another pick since. Poor loser then joins reddit again under a new alias and starts threatening my wife and all kinds of nonsense, and banned immediately. Oh you dummies, you're too easy to spot.

***First Umpire Over is ⭐️Cards/Cubs Over 7.5 with Jansen Visconti who is 11-6 Over on 9.59 runs. Last year also was similar with over 9 runs scored a game and a 15-12 over record. His avg run impact per game is 1.5, i had this game pegged at just over 8 runs and now added one with umpire news. The over is enticing here as Hendricks has a dismal 7.5 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over last 11 starts this season, and even if he cant go, its a bullpen game, and they're not great either with a 4.13 era. St Louis is 4-0 in Gray's starts and 9 of last 13 cards games have hit the over, while in Hendricks 11 starts the over is 9-2. Cards bats have been hot so the over should hit. It is a top play,

***2nd Umpire Over isYankees/Baltimore Over 8.5 (andYanks TT Over 4) with Will Little, who is 5-2 over but whopping 11 runs per game avg on 63% strike call and a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Last year also similar 10 runs per game on 62.9% strikes , 16-13 Over record, and 2.4 SO/BB ration. 2 of the last 3 games btw these 2 have gone over with 41 runs scored in 3 games, coupled with Povich getting rocked by Oakland for 8 in 1 IP last start and has been shakey last few.
O's Povich pitches like Maury Povich. I asked my buddy down in Norfolk- another ecu guy who watches the Norfolk Tides team and was a former advanced scout years ago and as he's cousins with Connor Norby an ecu grad who is their next standout..I asked the deal about Povich after the Oakland start and he said he is only up cause of a lot of injuries, he wasn't projected to make it til 2026 if ever. Prob will be optioned back to Norfolk soon. Also his metrics on his curve sucks, it has the lowest movement top to bottom of any guy in their whole farm system to majors. thats why guys are teeing off on him, and he has little command of his pitches, and low confidence (bad recipe for a young pitcher).

and get this—Povichs' stats in the minors are abysmal. In 81.1 innings of work on the hill in 2023, he boasted a 6-7 record with a 4.87 ERA. in 2024 it gets worse. 1-3, 6.51 ERA, in 27 IP, with a 1.48 WHIP. Ouch. His troubles in the minor only foretold what would happen in the majors, these guys are in the in MLB for a reason.


***1st Umpire UNDER is Pitt/Chicago UNDER 8.5-130 with Alex Mackay, rated at 4.15 putting him in the pitcher friendly colum just under Carapazza, Eddings and Estabrook in extreme category due to his high strike call and lower walks, this year his games are 6-10 under BUT Hes calling a VERY high 65.5% strikes and an almost league high of 3.33 SO/BB Walks which is netting a low 8.5 runs, while last year saw 8.2 runs and 10-6 UNDER, on over 64% strikes. Was waiting on ump news as i had this pegged at 7 runs but could see less with this uump and matchup given that the under is 4-2 last 6 and 9-4 in Crochet's starts. Crochet is one of Chitown's up and coming aces with a 3.08 ERA, he should be able to keep the 21st ranked scoring offense Pirates at bay early and middle innings, while the white sox 30'th ranked offense can easily be silenced by a mediocre bulk reliever.Wind is also blowing in from left center at 10-15 MPH.

Oh, and clown JohnnyVegas, the plays aren't square if they win. And the majority of the nights I win and win big. 19-9 last night, yeah 19 square picks. right. Just like all the 13-2 days and 12-0 nights. All square picks. You dont know the first thing about handicapping or betting and it shows with your every ignorant post.

 

[inzane]

f*** these guys.

Focus on the prize...

 

[piratealew]

f*** these guys.

Focus on the prize...

you're right. It's a sign we're winning. People hate on winner. See it every day in society, from the losers who can't do it themselves.

Let's crush them tonight and this weekend before ASB then come back and do it again next week!

 

[piratealew]

Finally getting the rest of ump assignments. Storming all aftenoon, so cant get my yard done as planned, at least i can catch up on the umpire news. The rest of the umps announced so far are neutral and dont add much either way.

***3rd Ump Over is Milw/Wash Over 7.5 with Dan Iossogna who is rated at 4.26 putting him on the lowest tier of hitter friendly umps but due to his low strike call and high walk ratio typically his games have more of a chance to go over, this year's he's avg nearly 9 runs but his typical year is more like 2023 and 2022 where he avg 9.3 runs, 21-14 Over, on 64% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB. With the nats having the 20th ranked MLB reliever ERA at 4.19 and 25th just this past week with a 5.95 ERA while Milw is 19th with a 4.85 ERA last week. The brewers are 10th in scoring at almost 5 runs a game against Nats Jackson R who has a 9 ERA, i see some runs being scored to push over the total.

 

[jjgold]

Thank you for all this data tremendous work

 

[grngbln1771]

Finally getting the rest of ump assignments. Storming all aftenoon, so cant get my yard done as planned, at least i can catch up on the umpire news. The rest of the umps announced so far are neutral and dont add much either way.

***3rd Ump Over is Milw/Wash Over 7.5 with Dan Iossogna who is rated at 4.26 putting him on the lowest tier of hitter friendly umps but due to his low strike call and high walk ratio typically his games have more of a chance to go over, this year's he's avg nearly 9 runs but his typical year is more like 2023 and 2022 where he avg 9.3 runs, 21-14 Over, on 64% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB. With the nats having the 20th ranked MLB reliever ERA at 4.19 and 25th just this past week with a 5.95 ERA while Milw is 19th with a 4.85 ERA last week. The brewers are 10th in scoring at almost 5 runs a game against Nats Jackson R who has a 9 ERA, i see some runs being scored to push over the total.

Do you ever look at Umpire W-L data for ML plays? There are a few umpires out there that have solid history with faves, underdogs, home fave, home dog, etc. Usually don't have a good handle until around Memorial Day, but some guys stay steady and can go back 2-3 years to back their numbers. I use covers for that. There was an old timer that used to post on Madjacks that used this,any years ago, but never shared what his methodology was. But, I think he kept very detailed data on these imps, long before the days of covers MLB umpire data

Cheers

 

[piratealew]

This tota

Do you ever look at Umpire W-L data for ML plays? There are a few umpires out there that have solid history with faves, underdogs, home fave, home dog, etc. Usually don't have a good handle until around Memorial Day, but some guys stay steady and can go back 2-3 years to back their numbers. I use covers for that. There was an old timer that used to post on Madjacks that used this,any years ago, but never shared what his methodology was. But, I think he kept very detailed data on these imps, long before the days of covers MLB umpire data

Cheers

Yeah I do, the "homer" and "favorite" or road dog umpire. Some guys are notorious for showing favoritism. I glance at that but I've found it's a bit tougher to call with those as a lot of still depends on the product on the field, some teams are just vastly superior in a given H2H like Randy Johnson against the bad Royals. You also have guys like Todd Tichenor who favors home teams generall but has a short fuse--a couple times he ejects the home manager early, changing the whole dynamic of that game. I could be wrong but the pitcher/hitter dynamic has been a bit more predictable from my view combining it with the pitching and matchups. That's IMHO and how I approach it.

Speaking of Todd, this was a total I was on the fence, the matchup calls for a small over play and now with the umpire news I'll play it.

***4th Umpire Over is Gigantes/Mipples Over 7.5-115 with Todd Tichenor who rates at 4.33 putting him the extreme hitter friendly category above Wegner, Johnson and Vanover, just below Moscoso. This has been a slightly down year as he's seen nearly 9 runs per game on 64% strikes but is 9-7 over, while most years are between 9 runs to his 2022 number of 11.15 runs per game due to a low strike call and 2.3 SO/BB Ratio.Giants Pitcher Harrison has given up 4 runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. The twins have an explosive offense ranked 4th on 5 runs per game. As mentioned before, the twins RAKE agains lefties, with #1 in MLB OPS of .802 and 30 home runs. The over is 4-1 last 5 in Ryan's starts so his guys give him good run production and with a 20 mph Golden Gate to Bay wind pushing balls out to center, I like this over now.

 

[piratealew]

Greenbacks aka Mr NBA 2 sides Kid, since you've been all over my IG and looked at my pics, you'd know that a 6 bedroom house is no apartment.

and these fools continue to prove they just dont gamble, now yapping about the totals being wrong.
Easy to open up a few books and these and see the truth:

https://www.bookmakersreview.com/mlb/odds/?date=20240712&g=full-game&m=totals

MLB Odds & Betting Lines: Moneylines, Point Spreads & Totals

Compare MLB odds & betting lines in real time. Updated Baseball betting odds, spreads and predictions including MLB moneylines, point spreads, totals and futures.

www.sportsbookreview.com

Crying now about the lines because of jealousy again....Want some cheese with that whine? Keep getting proved wrong, you overweight obsessed low-life troll. Go ask someone else for advice on a 10 leg parlay and leave me alone, creepy stalker guy

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is Braves/Fathers Over 8 with Dan Bellino who is great for Over's last few years and runs, as this year he is avg 10.3 runs on 63% strikes, 2.6 SO/BB Ratio giving him 9-7 Over, while last year he called 63% strikes resulting in 10.17 runs on a 2.2 SO/BB ratio and a near league best 23-13 Over. Without factoring in Dan calling K's and BB, the situation is righ too as Both struggling pitchers take on elite offenses. Vasquez hasa 2-4 record in 12 starts with a 4.66 ERA, 1.6 WHIP, and 38/14 K/BB ratio. Opposing teams hit .332 against, while his offense is top 10 in runs, hits, HR, RBI, K, BA, SLG, OBP and OPS. Braves counter with a gas can Spencer who is 2-4 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.27 Whip and 38/8 K/BB ratio in 7 games. Oppenents are hitting .265 against.

 

[piratealew]

I learned tonight that everyould should fade my #4 top pick always. as if it always loses, but funny thing is, it cashed again last nigh. Reds are up 7-3 in the #4 spot tonight. And no one on here has sent me a tip or gratituity, nor have i ever asked anyone on the forums in a post or DM. Keep up the elaborate fantasies. and i hope those clowns did fade #4 last night Tigers and tonight Reds.

 

[piratealew]

I left my Toronto ML Bets off.

⭐️Toronto+110

Toronto+105 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

An ok day if Seattle and Toronto can pull it out. San Dog changed pitchers to Waldron so I got a void onthe ML, i wondered what happened to them. Still going to screw me on the over

 

[piratealew]

Of course Sea and Tor both lose in extra's, looks like some guys took off early for All star break mentally. Gave some back yesterday, 12-18. As I've said all along, I play all listed Pitchers unless noted, Padres changed pitchers at game time so that was voided. Usually I come back and post the new play if there is one when a pitcher is scratched. Back in a few hours after i finish the card.

 

[jjgold]

I guess it does get tricky near the All-Star break good point