NFL Picks - Week 12

[LT Profits]

THURSDAY, 11/23
Lions -8 -108 (Heritage)
49ers -7 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 61-39-1, +18.90

 

[theriver55]

Impressive record LT. Tight lines and you are on point. Continued Good luck.

 

[portu]

 

[LT Profits]

THURSDAY, 11/23
Lions -8 -108 (Heritage)
Commanders / Cowboys OVER 48.5 -108 (Heritage)
49ers -7 -108 (Heritage)

 

[LT Profits]

Call me John Q Public with today's plays, let's see what happens.

 

[renegade]

Nfl overs are suicide this year. I read an article that said nfl scoring is the lowest since 2009 and its been trending down the last 4 yrs

 

[renegade]

Seems odd given the rule changes that favor more offense

 

[LT Profits]

THURSDAY, 11/23
Lions -8 -108 (Heritage)
Commanders / Cowboys OVER 48.5 -108 (Heritage)
49ers -7 -108 (Heritage)
49ers / Seahawks UNDER 43.5 -108 (Heritage)

 

[LT Profits]

FRIDAY, 11/24
Dolphins / Jets UNDER 40.5 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 63-41-1, +18.76

 

[portu]

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, LT!

 

[LT Profits]

5 NFL Picks Sunday

SUNDAY, 11/26
Texans +1.5 -108 (Heritage)
Giants / Patriots UNDER 35.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Rams -2.5 -116 (Heritage)
Bills +3 -113 (Heritage)
Ravens / Chargers OVER 48 -108 (Heritage)


YTD: 63-42-1, +17.68

 

[LT Profits]

6 Plays Sunday

SUNDAY, 11/26
Texans +1.5 -108 (Heritage)
Giants / Patriots UNDER 35.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Rams -2.5 -116 (Heritage)
Browns +2 -108 (Heritage)
Bills +3 -113 (Heritage)
Ravens / Chargers OVER 48 -108 (Heritage)

 

[renegade]

Sun night overs 2-10 on the year

 

[LT Profits]

Sun night overs 2-10 on the year

You keep harping on that and I keep saying the only logical reason for it is inflated totals for prime time games, there is no other logical reason for it, it is not as if teams gameplan differently for night games So I don;'t cap the games any differently and I have cashed some of the Unders due to lines being inflated based on my model. But the trend does not deter me from betting Over when the total is light, and I had last night's game close to 50.5. That gives me the sense that the trend is so well known that books are now starting to DEflate totals a tad. Regardless, I will continue to cap all games normally. And I can't complain about around 60% on over 100 plays.

 

[harpo]

Agree with LT !!!

 

[renegade]

I was just commenting. It has nothing to do with your plays. Books can set the line 10 pts lower, it doesnt matter. The games barely crack 37 in prime time. Its just a weird year.
Dont take it personal

 

[renegade]

I do think teams are more conservative in prime time though. All eyes watching…afraid to make the mistake for everyone to see

 

[LT Profits]

I was just commenting. It has nothing to do with your plays. Books can set the line 10 pts lower, it doesnt matter. The games barely crack 37 in prime time. Its just a weird year.
Dont take it personal

Oh I was not taking it personal, we are totally good, I just went more in depth. To me, a trend without solid logic is just a coincidence.

 

[chuckythegoat2]

LT, I think your viewpoint is spot-on.

I know that Prime-time Under angle is over-played. You hear it on all the talk-shows. Remember one thing about these Betting talk-shows. They need a reason to back their pick. As long as they can back it with a trend, they think it's bible.

I'm with you, LT. When too many people are talking about it, that # is being pumped.