These 2 teams play 10 times on neutral field I think 49ers win it 7 times
Then you think the moneyline should be around -233 and that the 49ers should be favored by 5 points.
I started posting this saying that the implied probability in the market is more like 55% of the time the niners win or 5.5 out of 10 games.
I actually was going to say that was too high and was I was betting KC and posting the line moved a little at Pinny and they are now implying more like 54.4%.
But that's not to say you're way off, as I have forecasts showing KC outright winning the game. As "fan" I'd like to see the Niners win but in some instances I see it in favor of KC off the line about as much as you see it in favor of the Niners.
You figure the Niners to win by about 3 more points than the spread, I am seeing it the other way.
So dog moneyline is showing value for me, at the right numbers.
I do own some +2 (-101) but I think we moved that shit, or started something there.