I've got some early results on our golf vs recent golfer performance methods used last week. Again we're looking at the course, similar courses, this week it's a short course, at par 70 in North Carolina, and combining that with golfers, using recent performance across strokes gained and other stats.
Expect low scores again this week, history shows, but it's worth noting a couple of distinct features. Last week the course was wide off the tee, this time it's a bit more narrow. You have to go all the way back the Colonial to see a course like this one as far as width off the tee from 250 yards out and at each 25 yard interval to 350 yards. We'll see Bermudagrass fairways and the same with 2.5" cut at the rough. There is some water, with 6 holes having water in play.
The other distinct feature worth noting, outside of fairway width, involves the greens. The Champion Bermudagrass greens, along with short areas for runoff as a part of the green complexes, make for some fast areas. The Champion Bermudagrass itself can be fast, and I expect it to be. The Tourney Stimp is 12.
If the course is wet, and soft, both the fast greens and narrow fairways will be mitigated and there is a chance of rain heading into the weekend.
That said, if there is softness, it won't last all four days. This isn't a bad course to assess some round by round matchups as some of the more short term, within tournament factors, like a hot, solid putter and accurate driver can really show itself in at least one round on the weekend.
Also, if you are looking LIVE or looking to pick up, or sell back a tournament winner, be advised that the front 9 of this course will play much easier than the back 9. This can lead to a few things to notice. One of them is that you can see when a golfer is going from the easier to harder, or vice versa, part of the course, and can time your LIVE position accordingly. But another thing to note is that for golfers to do well in this tournament they will need to take advantage of the easier side of the golf course. When evaluating golfers mid tourney know that if a golfer isn't capitalizing on that front nine, he's not having a good day in this tourney.
Overall I also had to consider weight for the approach play as far as recent form. Hitting that green will be important for the golfers, even moreso if it's a faster, less forgiving putt, but the nature of the complexes themselves, and the fast runoffs, will require some accuracy and some greens in regulation.
All of this is within the realm of these pros and, yeah, they should eat up the course. Expect a ton of birdies, again. Last week the cut was -4, will be interesting to see if it gets beat this week.
Despite some of the mysteries, like weather, and it only being Monday, I've triggered some bets against the probabilities for the thread, and these may be the only one's I pick up, from this strategy...
| Wyndham | Alex Noren Top 20 Finish +350 at BOL |
| 3-Aug | Cam Davis Top 20 Finish +225 at DK |
| J.T. Poston Top 20 Finish +160 at DK |
| Denny McCarthy Top 20 Finish +150 at DK |
| |
| Alex Noren Top 30 Finish +170 at DK |
| Cam Davis Top 30 Finish +130 at DK |
Good Luck
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